moonslav59

How much better makes it a no-brainer to play HRam every game? Can HRam rake much better than Moreland/Swihart/Nunez? Of course, he can. I'm actually very optimistic that the surgery will help HRam have a good season, maybe like 2016- maybe a little better. 2016: .286 30 11 (.361/.505/ .866) It's hard to imagine Swihart or Nunez doing better than that. It's better than what we can expect from Moreland: .250 25 80 (.325/.445/.770) The split numbers might be what really counts, although Cora seems to not value that as much as others, at least with his words this winter. Moreland's OPS vs RHPs is more like .785. HRam's OPS vs RHPs in his best Boston year (2016) was just .796. Do you start HRam vs every RH'd starter if the differential is .796 to .785? One could probably look at which starters Moreland has a good history against and justifiably start Moreland in 25-40% of RH'd starter games, thereby keeping HRam from vesting. To me, HRam is going to have to rake vs RHPs to justify letting the option vest. I see that as a small possibility, but if I'm wrong, he will vest- assuming health is not an issue. Not passing the physical might be our hope, if he does vest.

Isn't that the same for every team? (Maybe us more than others due to our rotation question marks.)

Our window or "future" is short as it is. If HRam's contract is on the books in 2019, we'll have two major choices: A) Go over the $40M limit and accept serious penalties that will hurt our FUTURE. Let Pom go and/or not extend a young player into the FUTURE. Yes, having HRam in 2019 will affect our future in 2019 and beyond. While losing HRam and Pablo's salaries will be very helpful, we have so many stars coming off the books in such a short time period that we will need every cent to just keep most of them and pay their escalating arb costs. We'll need a large influx of youth into the 25 man roster that I just don't see happening. I'm not a pessimist; I'm just being realistic. $22M goes a long way towards keeping us under the $40M penalty next year while staying highly competitive in 2019. I do see a small chance scenario where we might want HRam to get over 497 PAs, but we should allow Moreland, Swihart, Nunez and maybe even Travis a chance to show what they have got by taking PAs away from HRam. Unless HRam is hiting like he hasn't done since joining Boston, I'm limiting his PAs for the good of the team and its future.

I was firmly against the Pom-Espi trade, but my dislike was never based on my feelings towards Pom. I really liked Pom, but I liked Espi more. Pom has done better than what I expected, but he had a fantastic half season before we got him. The trade looks great now due to Pom's great performance last year (not so much in 2016) and Espi's health issues.

Our best hope is that Smith or Thornburg pitch well enough to give us confidence one can close next year. Replacing Pom won't be easy.

He's always had a nice swing. It looks like maybe he's found some power. Too bad he's sqeezed out of 1B right now with $29M spent there this year.

Every big business is corrupt. I watch the game and could care less about the money grabbing.

Yeah, Swihart is untradeable, cause he's so good, but we can get JT for peanuts.

lol!

The window closes more quickly with HRam's $22M on the 2019 budget. There's just no sugar coating it. If he wins us a ring in 2018, it's worth it, and I'm actually someone who has faith in HRam this year, but I just can't see us getting to a point where we're thinking, "Hram is doing so well, we just can't win without him, so screw the future, let's ride the Hram wave to a 2018 ring!"

JBJ is going to have his best season of his career. Moreland will be the steady one once again... steady mediocrity with a glove.

MLBTR... Red Sox knuckleballer Steven Wright may open the season in the team’s rotation, Ian Browne of MLB.com writes. Wright, who has been working back from the season-ending left knee surgery he underwent last May, threw three innings of live batting practice Saturday and called it “a huge, huge step in the right direction.” There’s also optimism about left-hander Eduardo Rodriguez, who had knee surgery last October. Of Rodriguez, manager Alex Cora said, “It seems like Eddie, he’s in a sprint right now, which is great.” Meanwhile, lefty Drew Pomeranz – yet another injured Red Sox starter – will throw a minor league game Sunday as he attempts to bounce back from a mild flexor strain. Cora noted that “you can’t rule out” Pomeranz or either of the other banged-up starters from beginning the year in Boston’s rotation.

ST'ing OPS (20+ ABs) The best... 1.290 Beni .994 Bogey .989 Swihart .974 Devers .920 Travis .890 Vaz .832 Holt .801 Castillo The so-so... .795 de Jesus .732 HRam .700 Tavarez .683 Betts The worst... .336 Selsky .411 Lin .507 Marrero .573 JBJ .609 Moreland .634 e la Guerra ERA (6+ IP) 0.90 Walden 1.00 Sale 1.23 Hembree 1.23 Poyner 1.29 Barnes 2.77 Haley 3.00 Smith 3.86 Johnson 4.15 Elias 4.91 Porcello 5.14 Workman 6.10 Velazquez 9.00 FRod

I've mentioned Haley. (Does that count?)

They might like Danny Diaz, who might be ML ready by the time the Marlins are relevant again. (just kidding) Maybe Mata, Diaz and Swihart.

It's actually how much HRam is hitting better than Moreland/Nunez/Swihart. If HRam is hitting at a pace of .280 30 100, do you play him over a Moreland at .280 25 90? Over Nunez at .300 with an OBP of .360? If Moreland is hitting RHP's better than HRam, even though HRam's overall numbers are better, what then? It's not just about how well HRam is doing. If he's heads and shoulders above the next choice, then yes, he will play over others and reach his vest number of 497 PAs, even with us holding our noses.

Yes, "it matters" more when the blunder is $95M + $88M, but $13M still "matters." I never said one mattered less than the other.

I always thought snot moved rather slowly.

Danny Diaz may be the best of the 3.

Then, we will likely say good bye to Pom and Kimbrel and have no money to try and replace them.

Here's a real hindsight comp choice: Option A: $22M x 5 JD Martinez $6.5M x 2 Moreland $4M x 2 Nunez $32.5M for 2018 and 2019 plus JD afterwards as he ages Option B $12M x 1 Lance Lynn or Alex Cobb to a similar deal (maybe $14M x 1) $6.5M x 1 Moustakas (Move Devers to DH/3B) $6.5M x 1 Morrison (HRam to DH/1B/bench) $4M x 1 Nunez $29M for 2018 and zero for 2019 I like option A, but option B looks pretty damn good, especially with Cobb instead of Lynn. How about option C? $13M Cobb $12M Lynn $6.5M Moose $4M Nunez $35.5M for 2018 (leaving us with just about $3M for a summer spending budget)

MLBTR... By Kyle Downing | March 17, 2018 at 1:30pm CDT First baseman Logan Morrison ended up with the Twins, but many expected the Red Sox to pursue him more aggressively than they did. Alex Speier of the Boston Globe has some interesting quotes from LoMo, who smacked 38 homers for the Rays last season but ultimately settled for a meager $6.5MM guarantee with performance escalators and a vesting option. Morrison says he himself didn’t have any conversations with Boston. His agent spoke with the club during the winter meetings, but apparently “that was it,” and clearly that discussion didn’t culminate in any serious offers. “Am I surprised? I guess. I don’t know,” he said. “I don’t know if it was the most shocking thing I saw [in the market].” The Sox ended up re-signing Mitch Moreland to play first base for them on a two-year, $13MM contract.

So, what? Trade Swihart, Chavis and Danny Diaz for JTR and then cut Leon loose?

I didn't realize hindsight judgement only starts at a certain dollar amount. The Masterson signing was horrible and that was under $13M. (I joined in on the bashing on that one.)

Until I hear a name tied to a Swihart deal, I'm leaning towards holding onto him in hopes he begins to reach the potential many feelt he had just a few short years ago. My hunch is that no current offer gives us something significant in an area of need (SP'er or LH'd RP'er). I could see us trading Swihart and Hembree for a quality RP'er or not-so-quality 5th starter, but I want to have a look-see at not just Swihart but also Johnson and Velazquez.