moonslav59

2019: Not luxury tax dollars) $18.5M Sandoval $13.1M Pedroia $11.0M Castillo Over $42M!

We may lose the lead after Harper or Machado signs. I'm not worried.

Maybe he's waiting for the right team to ask.

Maybe Johnson, Swihart, Chavis and Scerff?

It's hard to spend $32M on the pen, when the rest of the luxury budget is already over $225M.

Ortiz had some nice numbers with Minnesota, but he was mostly used as a platoon. His numbers vs lefties were bad, at times, but he sure came into his own in Boston. Thanks, Theo!

I agree, and I think there's at least an equal chance our offense improves next year. Our pen looks to be significantly worse, at this point. Enough to make a huge difference? Maybe. I'm pretty sure DD makes at least one move to improve in that area, and after that deal is done, the real debate will begin.

I did say Cody Allen and a solid set-up guy, but that was before we signed Eovaldi. I'm not sure if signing Allen will be worth putting us over the $40M line. This $40M line might be an illusion. Henry might be fine with going over it, at least for one more big push year, but signing anyone to a big long term deal means significant reprecussions in 2020 and beyond. Ideally, we get a closer for dirt cheap and save $2-4M for mid season dealings. How to do that is difficult when we have so few trading chips we can afford to part with, without opening a new hole or pretty much ending most hopes for any farm input in the next few years b y trading away the last of our best prospects.

1) We can trade for a closer who has yet to reach arb or is in year 1 of arb. 2) We trade for a well-paid closer, but the other team pays a big chunk of the cost, because we gave them something nice in return. 3) We trade someone like Nunez or Moreland to free up salary space and roll the dice at 1B (Pearce/Chavis/Dalbec/Swihart) or 2B (Holt/Pedey/Lin/Hernandez). Who do we trade? Maybe Swihart, Johnson, and Chavis for a solid but not great closer. (No, I don't have any names.)

I'm thinking solid but maybe not spectacular or even a well-known closer. After all, we don't have many trading chips left.

I think we trade for a solid closer who does not put us over the $40M line.

I think we have about $5M left after signing Eovaldi & Pearce. What closer can you get for $5M? What if we need to pick-up someone mid season?

I can see your point, but unless Henry agrees to pay these huge taxes for several more years, I'm not sure I'm for giving up even more of our future for one more year...maybe two.

I tend to agree, but can we call either Barnes or Brasier a lights out set-up man? Can we realistically hope one of them will be in 2019? What chance does Thornburg have?

The gift that just keeps giving! Maybe we get a nice comp pick for Sale.

Kimbrel or Britton is a pipe dream. Both are impossible.

I'd rather the Yanks get Machado than Harper. Mostly, I'm thinking how much sweeter it is going to be to beat the Yankees' asses again and again!

I'd rather the Yanks get Machado than Harper. ostly, I'm thinking how much sweeter it is going to be to beat the Yankees' asses again and again!

M e r r y C h r i s t m a s !

That's what I was thinking, but the part about waiting for the Yanks to counter is likely correct.

know projecting future performance levels is not an exact science, in fact it is far from one. That being said, age progression and regression charts are usually a pretty accurate, although individual players have ups and downs on either side of the prime year peak on the chart. 2017 saw a lot of down years with players on the upside of prime. 2018 may have seen some players exceeding what was expected, but when players are on the upside, it's hard to know how much better they can still be, or if their biggest year came before the normal prime peak year. It's pretty much agreed that most players start declining at age 30, and just about everyone declines by age 33. Here's a good article... https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/9933/how-do-baseball-players-age-investigating-the-age-27-theory/ Note: the article shows how differing skills peak at different ages. Let's say 29 is prime. Some think 27-28 is prime, but I'm going with 29. Here's a look at our key players and their position on the age curve chart. My list is in order of how I view their importance to our team in 2019: Red= Post Prime Blue= Barely Post Prime 26 Betts 31 JDM 29 Sale 26 Bogey 33 Price 24 Beni 30 Porcello 28 JBJ 28 Eovaldi 25 ERod 22 Devers 28 Vazquez 28 Barnes 31 Brasier 33 Moreland 35 Pearce 31 Nunez 29 Leon 29 Hembree 30 B Holt 34 Wright 28 Johnson 30 Thornburg 30 Workman 30 Velazquez 35 Pedey 26 Swihart As you can see, 10 of our top 13 players are approaching or in prime, and only 1 (Price) is significantly past prime. Even Price is just 33, and he's not 36-42 like some key starters on other teams. Our oldest players are all under 36. 33 Price 33 Moreland 35 Pearce 34 Wright 35 Pedey

We could win 100 games in 2019 and still be as good, if not better than 2018- with KImbrel or without Kimbrel. I agree that DD is not finished, but I think he'll get one RP'er by trade and then try to find a cheap RP'er through free agency (maybe Cody Allen?).

Through free agency, you do. Familia got $30M/3. To me, that's a boatload for a good (not great) closer.

I'm almost certain it will be Swihart. If we trade Vaz or Leon, I think the other will catch way more than Swihart, so our offense from the catcher position will never be something we can expect much of.

Comp picks are not what they used to be for several reasons: 1) It's harder to get them.We used to get 2 for some players. 2) They are later in the order than before. 3) Now that slot money is in place, you no longer have difficult-to-sign draftees falling to the lower first round/comp pick areas. Just look at the difference in our comp picks over the years and note the change: 2005: Ellsbury & Lowrie (for OCab) Hansen & Bowden (DLowe) Buccholz & Egan (Pedro) 2006: Bard & K Johnson (J Damon) C. Clay (Mueller) 2007: NHagadone (Alex Gonzo) RDent (Foulke) 2008: BPrice (Gagne) SFife (H Morris) 2009: none 2010: KVitek &ARanaudo (BWagner) BBrentz & B Workman (JBay) 2011: MBarnes & HOwens (VMart) BSwihart & JBJ (ABeltre) 2012: Brian Johnson & P Light (Papelbon) 2013: none 2014: MKopech (Ellsbury) 2015: none 2016: none 2017: none 2018: none Look at some of the players we got through comp picks. Look ar some of the players we got by trading some of these comp picks. Look how few we've gotten in the last few years (1 in the last 6 years). Now, factor in international bonus money restrictions, and low draft picks due to winning plus drops in slots due to luxury tax penalties. Building a good farm will not be easy under these circumstances. One could argue it might be close to impossible.