The threshold goes up $9M next season. Minus Sale's $1M raise, that adds $8M. Assuming we may spend $39M over the luxury limit again next year, our actual "limit" might be $245M.
Starting at $150M, counting Sale's contract, player benefits and other 40 man roster players, we then look at arbs and FA signings. I'm not sure how much of a raise JBJ will get, and I guess that depends on how well he does going forward.
Arb Costs
~$17M Betts (2nd or 3 arb years)
~$15M Bogey (3 of 3)
~$7M JBJ (3 of 4)
~$7M ERod (2 of 4)
~$3M Holt (3 of 3)
~$3M Thornburg (3 of 3)
~$2.5M Wright (2 of 3)
~$2.5M Leon (3 of 3) optional
~$1M C Smith (2 of 3)
~$1M Barnes (1 of 3)
~$750K Hembrfee (1 of 3) optional
~$750K Swihart (1 of 4) optional
Total: ~$62M in arb raises
Total: $212M with no HRam, Pomeranz, Kimbrel & Kelly.
If we go to $244M ($1M under the max penalty line), we'llhave about $32M to spend.
I think that gets us Kimbrel and Kelly or replacements in kind.
If we shed Leon and keep Swihartand trade Hembree, we can add about $3M there. We'll have to hope Wright, Velazquez, Haley, Johnson and Beeks can replace Pomeranz AND provide the starter depth we need. That will be tight.
We don't have much hope in getting help from the farm, but maybe Pedey can get back to respectability, and we get a bump from 1 or 2 of these guys: Smith, Thornburg, Scott, Maddox, Poyner, Walden, Travis and Lin.
Basically, we may be able to have the same roster as this year, minus Pomeranz.