moonslav59

Exactly. This is the reason a trade makes sense. Another team needs him more than we do.

He traded a lot, but none really amounted to much. The ones he kept did better. That being said, there was a big gap between Devers and the Houck/Duran adds.

Brez really dislikes 3+ year deals. The age seems secondary. He did sign Chapman and extend him. He did trade for 1-2 years of Sonny Gray. It's the years and not so much the age.

Yes, I figured more than twice the value: $29M/2 O'Hearn $12-14M/2 Yoshida. Originally, I thought Yoshida might be worth 1/4 to 1/3 that.

I wonder what our % of revenue was at in 2004, 2007, 2013 and 2018.

Why didn't we offer even 4 years, last winter? We only offered 1-3 years- his choice. He's a year older and missed 50 games due to an injury. I'm leery of 4 years, but would do it. I might offer the 5th year with a team option and $5M buyout, but that's tops for me. I'd prefer 3 with a mutual option 4th year.

It's possible Duran will hit .775 in 2026, since he hit .774, this year. Yoshida has a .762 career OPS, so expecting .775 from him in 2026 is pretty close. Of course, Duran adds tremendous speed and can create runs out of nowhere. My point is this? How much is Duran worth to another team as an OF'er vs how much he upgrades our DH position from a .775 Yoshida (with Casas/Romy as DH depth?) The answer seems obvious. We need to trade an OF'er, and it does not have to be Duran. The others offer better D than Duran.

I think Lodolo is a legit #2. He has 2 arbs left to Duran's 3. It's kinda hard to know if 2025's "career year" will be his best, but he apparently has real good "stuff." His 2.8 fWAR ranks 35th, so that looks like a #2. He had a 3.78 FIP (40th) He was 25th in xFIP. If you combine 2024-2025, he still ranked T36th in fWAR at 4.9. He's 32nd in FIP at 3.85. bWAR gave him a 4.9 for 2025! (6.1 for '24+'25) I'd make this trade, but the pressure would be even higher to find a boost for the line-up with no Duran, Bregman, Devers, Ref and N Lowe and just Contreras added.

Wow! O"Hearn gets $29M/2 from PIT. He's 32 and mostly a DH/1B/RF. 122 OPS+ since 2023. 46 Hrs and a .788 OPS. Yoshida has a 109 OPS+, 29 Hrs and a .762 OPS over the same timeframe. He's also 32. Makes me think maybe Masa could be worth $12-14M/2 to somebody. ( i was thinking more like $8-10M/2, before this news.)

Risky but not likely giving us nothing of value after 2 years.

If it’s 6 years we have zero chance, 5 years maybe 10% chance, 4 years maybe 25% and 3 years maybe 50% tops, but I doubt he takes 3, if longer offers are out there.

You may be right, but 2-3 moves can and should help the team, but as of now, I agree we have not done enough to get us "over the top." I'm not certain we are done. I'll hold off being so certain about JH having no winning priority until the winter is over. The one piece of evidence I have is what JH allowed, last winter- just after extending Devers to 10 years and an AAV nearly 50% higher than the previous Sox record contract: Bregman shattered the AAV record contract by a Sox signing or extension Buehler was the highest AAV paid to a FA SP'er since Price and 3rd highest among all SP'ers in Sox history. This was also accompanied by the Sandoval deal. While both failed (Sandoval, so far) it did show a "priority" to spend to try and win. The Chapman signing and extension was no dumpster dive, either. Now, Breggie, Devers and Gio (Buehler too) are gone, and JH's intentions are back to the forefront, again, but there is no way any of know what he will do to replace their contracts. I don't blame you for assuming he won't spend, but you sound like more than assuming. You sound very certain, and I think that is unfounded. I hope you are wrong, and I think you hope so, too.

I mentioned age for Bichette, but do you really think of all the available FAs since the Yoshida signing, he's "the one?" (Maybe he is. I prefer he not be.) Bregman was not offered 4-5 years, last winter, and now he's a year older. For this reason, I doubt we get him. Of course he'd bring the pluses you mention, as would Bichette in his own way. I don't see either as "the guys" JH throws his philosophy away on. Bregman is the more likely option of these two. I think JH would rather sign E Suarez to 2 years than either of these two for 4-5 or more years. Just my opinion.

Nice post and story. I think we will add a FA or two, but just under 4 years. (Maybe E Suarez and 2-3 yrs or Bassitt on a 1 year deal- maybe both, if we make another trade involving Crawford or Harrison and an OF'er.) I do not see us signing Bregman or Bichette or trading for 5 years of KMarte and his contract. I do think we can make one or two more significant trades without ruing the farm & future, but we have already compromised some of the future for 1-2 years or Gray, 2-3 years of Contreras and 2 years of Oviedo. We've shifted and replaced some farm pieces, but we still have Tolle, Early, Arias, Witherspoon, Valera and Gonzales. We replaced perales with Bennett, so we still have a very solid top 6 and some very promising other prospects farther away. The other point to be made about trading away prospects is that we just graduated so many prospects that will be paid very little and have 5-6 years of control. Plus we've locked up 4 younger players: Anthony, Campbell, Bello & Rafaela. If our recent grads were still prospects, we'd be a top 2-3 farm, if not #1. Anthony, Mayer, Narvaez & Campbell just graduated. (2 are signed long term) Abreu, Rafaela & Slaten graduated last season. (1 is locked up long term) Duran, Bello, Crawford & Casas graduated in '22 or '23 and have 3 or more years of control. (Bello was extended long term) That's 9-11 solid players that will not cost much for 3 or more years. We do have some key players losing control in the next 1-3 years, but not some wild amount and not the best of our best: 1 year: Whitlock is very important. Sandoval is not. 1-2 yrs: Gray, Chapman 2 yrs: Oviedo, Houck (out for '26) Yoshida, Hicks (Only Contreras seems important) 2-3: Story 3: Duran, Crawford, Romy, Casas, Wong Compared to other teams' situations, we look pretty well off, in terms of not having to replace lost and key players to free agency. Some losses, like Sandoval, Yoshida and Hicks might be beneficial due to their contract costs vs value provided. Others like Gray, Oviedo, Houck and Story look to be close to equal vale vs cost to replace. Chapman and Whitlock are the difficult one. (I'll not speak to the 3 years players, right now.)

Good call: 51. Morgan 59. Finley I see soxprospects.com added D reyes to #60 by attrition, due to the losses of Fajardo & Aita in the Contreras trade. I'm going to project these moves: Falls: 2. Arias falls to #6-10 9. Sandlin falls to around #20. 13> 25 Romero 14>30 Uberstine 15>26 Drohan 18>40 Bleis 19>39 Cespedes & 22>50 Castro ________________________ Risers: 5>3 Valera 8>5 Soto 12>8 Godbout 16>10 Holobetz 20>11 Azocar 23>15 Delzine 24>19 Ramos 25>20 Rivas 26>12 Jo Garcia 31>22 A Guzman 32>23 L Heyman 51> 33 Morgan 57>31 Patton

10 trades in less than 5 weeks!!!! Hoppe for Heyman Bernardino for B Ward Murphy for Ro. Hernandez Guerrero for T Gray (Plus, non-tendered Lowe & Wink, DFA'd Criswell & lost Paez to Rule 5.) Fitts & Clarke for S Gray Jh Garcia & Travieso for Oviedo, Samaniego and A Guzman Grissom for I Jackson Riemer for R Watson (Rule 5) Perales for J Bennett Dobbins, Fajardo & Aita for Contreras That's 14 players traded away in less than 5 weeks! 12 players added- likely 4 to make the 26 man roster.

I get that, but apparently he was left on the IL while he built up throwing arm strength so he could play LF. (Very strange choice.) We had a logjam in the OF and Devers at DH, so that is likely why Masa missed so much time in 2025. I'm not high on Masa. I just think we can get something for him, even if it's just $2-4M a year in salary relief. (I think more like $4-5.5M.) I also think that after trading an OF'er, the Masa-Campbell 4th OF'er platoon gives Masa more value to the team than as a 5th OF'er option. If Casas rakes at AAA, that OF value might not be enough to keep Masa around, but IMO, he won't be DFA'd unless he sucks (under .725 or 750) to start off 2026.

I'm not sure why so many think Alonso will age well but like Bregman more. Here are their OPS+ trends: Bregman (almost a year older than Pete.)/ Alonso 162 at age 25/ 122 Alonso in 1/3 of a season 117 at 26/ 133 Alonso 113 at 27 in just over a half season/ 146 Alonso 134 at 28/ 123 Alonso 122 at 29/ 122 Alons0 116 at 30/144 Alonso 128 at 31 in 2/3 of a season/ Alonso TBD in 2026 From age 26 to 30, Alonso was better in 3, the same in 1 and worse at age 28 (4 years ago.)

This how I see it, too. If AZ does not like Duran enough, maybe a third team could be involved, so we could get KMarte. I get the money and years part scare Brez & Co, but his AAV is not that high, and if we include Duran, we can subtract $7.8M for 2026 and likely more for 2027 and 2028. we could also include Crawford $2.7M est. or get AZ to pay a little cash. I keep mentioning Paredes, because I think he is about to explode on the scene, and I am hearing a lot of talk about trading him, here in HOU. I would not trade Duran for Donovan, and I'm not sure STL has anything more I'd want to "balance" it out. I doubt they take Duran and Hicks for Donovan, but I might do that, if we use the savings to add one more piece, somewhere. I hope we don't trade Duran for Vientos, but I'm not sure about the addition of Tong as tipping the scale to a yes.

You can't assume this. If it's Brez, it could be about Brez waiting on another (Plan A) trade option- like Duran for Paredes plus LHP. Maybe HOU or some other team is holding up on an answer or are working out a final piece to a possible trade. If it's CIN, it might be about them seeking the best they can get for Singer, but still on hold with a team on what that return might be. There are too many moving parts to assume a deal would be done, if it could have been.

I don't see why we'd choose Bichette as the one guy we single out for a large and long contract, except that he fits the age requirement. (The Sox have extended under 29 players for long term deals.) I'm not high on Bichette. He does not have the power we need, and will likely play 2B for the Sox. I don't see why we'd offer Bregman more years, now that he's a year older. I don't want him at 5 years. We can't ignore his 3 years of offensive decline over a 2/3 season resurgence. It looks like a no-go on KMarte, so I see our best chances at something of value lies with Paredes, Donovan, Vientos or E Suarez. (Don't listen to rumors that Paredes will not be traded. The Astros are likely locked into an infield of Walker, Altuve, Correa & Pena, and they want Yordan at DH not Altuve or Paredes.)

Indeed, although I don't think DFA'ing Masa will happen. We can pay down most and even almost all of his deal and save at least $2-4M on the tax line by doing so. I project Masa to hit neat .775 in 2026 and ..750 in 2027. Even though he has so little power, that has value. That might be better numbers than Duran would give us at DH. If Casas hits .790-.820, that's not a whole lot better than Masa, either. If we end up trading an OF'er, we might view Masa as OF depth for LF or a short RF. A Campbell-Masa LF platoon might net a higher OPS than Duran.

I think Duran for Lodolo makes total sense for both teams. Sure, trading Singer works better for CIN, but they need a high quality bat and OF'er and Singer will not get that for them. I think Duran is worth more than Lodolo. It only makes sense to BOS, because we have an OG logjam and need a quality SP'er. I'd prefer trading Duran for a big bat 3Bman/2Bman, because I doubt we spend large and long on one, and I'm not high on Breggie or Bichette as "the guy" we break the mold on. I'm not sure how much HOU like Duran (or Rafaela/Abreu) but getting Paredes and a LH'd RP'er might be the best we can do.

Yes, there is a clear distinction between soxprospects.com top 20 prospects and top 100 national prospects. Bloom traded zero of those. I don't think ben traded any, either. Brez traded Teel and Montgomery. I don't think Yorke was ever top 100. DD traded Espinoza (another bust) J Guerra (as u mentioned) and Moncada (not a great player.) He also traded Margot, Kopech, the Basabe brothers (both busts but not top 100) Dubon was not top 100- nor was Beeks.

While trading prospects has been something DD and Brez did and will continue doing, DD had a remarkable record at getting high impact players in return. The Brez trades have often included prospects returning, even if just some throw-ins. Brez's biggest trades, or most memorable (other than the Crochet deal) have been trades of vets: Sale & $ for Grissom and Dugo for Weissert & Fitts. It's rather stunning the amount of players and prospects traded by Brez just since the end of the season. It's not an emptying of the farm- nor was DD's history, especially in year 1 and 2, because Brez has also added some prospects and younger players, but here's a look-see: Hoppe for Heyman Bernardino for B Ward Murphy for Ro. Hernandez Guerrero for T Gray (Non-tendered Lowe & Wink, DFA'd Criswell & lost Paez to Rule 5.) Fitts & Clarke for S Gray Jh Garcia & Travieso for Oviedo, Samaniego and A Guzman Grissom for I Jackson Riemer for R Watson (Rule 5) Perales for J Bennett Dobbins, Fajardo & Aita for Contreras That's 14 players traded away in less than 5 weeks! We added 12 players, of which 8 will likely begin the season on the farm. We also lost quite a few players to free agency, non tendering and DFAs. All this change without a single MLB FA signed.