moonslav59

Recently, some things have changed to the 2026 roster outlook, namely premptively adding Early and Tolle to the 40, before their Rule 5 year came due. It would have helped the winter roster crunch by holding off until after opening day 2026, when we can move Houck (and others) to the 60 Day IL. With so many players on the 60 Day IL, now, even when you subtract the FAs-to-be, we don't have a ton of wiggle room on the everyday side of the roster. I doubt we can afford to keep the Toro, Eaton and Ali Sanchez types through the winter, especially if we want to add a big bat or two and keep or replace N Lowe and Bregman. Here is a look at who is currently slated to be on the 2026 Forty Man Roster: Houck is out for 2026 but will be on the winter 40 until opening day. 23 Pitchers: Crochet, Bello, Crawford, Sandoval, Dobbins, Fitts, Harrison, Criswell, Early, Tolle, Perales Chapman, Whitlock, Slaten, Weissert, Bernardino, Guerrero, Moran, Murphy, Winckowski, Kelly, Hicks, I Campbell 18 Everyday Players: Anthony, Story, Abreu, Duran, Narvaez, Rafaela, Romy, Mayer, K Campbell, Jh Garcia Lowe, Casas, Wong, Yoshida, Grissom, Sogard, Eaton, Sanchez That's 42 Players. Maybe we add Sandlin or Mullins on Rule 5, but maybe nobody. Not under strict team control: Bregman, Giolito (140 IP option) Refsnyder, Wilson, Matz, Hendriks, May To me, the players most likely to be traded, DFA'd or non tendered: Ali Sanchez (begin 2026 with just 2 catchers on the 40.) Eaton Grissom Hicks (no options) I Campbell Sogard Yoshida Lowe or Casas This could easily get us to 40 or less, as we will likely sign or re-sign someone.

I can see the logic in trading away the injury-risk players like Mayer, and the huge question marks on offense like Rafaela. I could also see trading the positionless Campbell, but I'm not for handing any of these three away. (Not that you are.) Maybe I'm too high on Jh Garcia as a viable "non noodle" bat as the guy who is now 1-2 injuries away from the line-up, if we trade Rafaela. Maybe I'm relying on Story staying healthy for 2 years in a row by trading away a likely "non noodle" bat as his, Bregman's and whoever we play at 2B reserve. Maybe trading away Campbell comes back to bite me in the ass as he might become one our best "non noodle bats" in the future. We got choose a lane, this winter. There is a bit of a contradiction involved here, since both of us agree we need "non noodle bats" in reserve, but here I am suggesting we trade away our depth (Mayer at 3B, SS and 2B), starting OF'er (Rafaela not Duran or Abreu) and possible future big bats (Campbell.) We shouldn't need to trade all 3 to get a Joe Ryan, so it's not as bad it sounds, but if we can pull that off, keep Bregman and sign Alonso or Suarez, I'd be thrilled. To get Ryan and Marte over Alonso or Suarez, we'd need to trade those 3 plus other serious talent, like some young pitching.

As much as I have focused on adding a solid 1/2 type SP'er this coming winter, I can see the argument that adding a big bat is more important, and that means two, if Bregman bolts. With all the young arms in the system and 4-5 promising arms coming off the IL for 2016, maybe we can roll the roll the dice there and go large on offense. I'm still firmly in the "add a Joe Ryan type" camp, I'd love to see us add another big bat, like Alonso, Marte or Suarez. I'd love Schwarber, but DH only players are problematic to a team with 3-4 guys on the roster who look like DH is their best landing spot (Yoshida, Refsnyder, Casas, Campbell and maybe eventually Duran. We also have an OF overload that might be alleviated by DH'ing one of them, daily. If JH would see this open window for what it is, and open his damn wallet, maybe we could keep Bregman, add Alonso, Suarez or Marte and pull off a trade for Joe Ryan.

Nope, but he fills the hole Bregman's line-up loss. It also forces us to rely on Mayer at 3B over Lowe/Casas at 1B. I see that as similar issues.

That would be more than acceptable, to me, and it does not mean Mayer is penciled in as FT'er anywhere. Where does he fit in this scheme?

If I had to guess, I'd say he's with the Sox, next year. They will rework the deal by maybe adding a year (from 2 more to 3 more,) while keeping the AAV about the same or a little less. I'm not so worried about losing him as I was when he was over .900.

I agree and said as much a month or two ago. Abreu's RF defense carries a lot of value, too, especially when compared to Ref. (Not so much Anthony.) In a way, Duran deserves to be platooned more than Abreu, but I'm fine with him playing FT. A Yoshida-Ref DH platoon makes sense. It also takes one OF'er out of the OF rotation to make room for another. With 2 OF'ers on the IL, that is not so important, but when all are healthy, it is. Romy could also platoon DH with Yoshida, especially in 2026, if Ref retires, but he's needed more as a 1B platoon with Lowe of a 2B platoon with DHam. IMO, we find a way to dump Yoshida and go with something like this in 2026: Vs RHP DH: L Duran LF: L Anthony CF: R Rafaela RF: L Abreu Vs LHP DH: R Ref or Romy LF: L Anthony CF: R Rafaela or L Duran RF: L Abreu (R Jh Garcia/R Campbell)

Being a platoon hitter who only starts vs LHPs is a bit unfortunate, but it is the reality of the game and human nature. Ref's offensive value is less than Abreu due to this, but it is what it is. One interesting point is that guys like Ref and Romy are minimized, because they "suck vs RHPs," when in reality, they actually suck less vs RHPs than many more highly regarded players do vs LHPs. Refsnyder's splits (v L & v R) .986/.632 in '25 .941/.733 in '24 (more PAs v R than L) .783/.581 in '23 Romy 1.032/.704 (more PAs vs R than L) .745/.695 (pretty close to even R v L PAs) Abreu .721/.828 '25 .532/.825 '24 .400/.928 '23 Duran .581/.874 '25 .665/.910 '24 .749/.841 '23 How about 2024 to 2025 combined? v R/v L .894 Duran (939 PAs)/.626 (431) PAs more t 2:1 .827 Abreu (711 PAs)/.624 (131) PAs more than 5:1 .707 Refsnyder (218)/ .962 (273) PAs about 4:5 .630 Romy (242)/.957 (264) PAs about even The RHB platoon players play a higher percent vs RHPs than the LHB do vs LHPs, and yet look at the overall OPS: .846 Refsnyder .809 Duran .797 Romy .795 Abreu

Since Bregman determines his own destiny, we can't count on him for 2026. Here is who we have under team control: 1B: Lowe (last arb or non tender?) Casas, Romy, Campbell 2B: Mayer/Story, DHam, Rafaela, Romy, Sogard SS: Mayer/Story, Rafaela, Sogard, Romy, DHam (Arias) 3B: Mayer/Story, Romy, Sogard (Romero) There are just way to many question marks muddying the waters.

If Mayer is healthy, he's starting on my MLB club. My point was we cannot pencil him in as the FT 2Bman, 3Bman or SS for the entire 2026 season, and we can rely on DHam, Sogard or Rafaela to cover, when he is out. To me, if Bregman goes, we need to add Alonso or Suarez. Marte would be fine in trade, but for what? Torres is not a suitable replacement for Bregman. Even if Bregman comes back and we put Story and Mayer at middle infield, who is the back up? Can we risk seeing DHam, Rafaela, Romy, Casas and Lowe covering the right side infield, if Mayer goes down, for yet one more year?

Agreed, but Nate over exceeding expectations, as well as Pearce, too helped seal that legacy.

I totally agree. We can not pencil in Mayer as a FT 2Bman or 3Man. We need to plan on a 150 day IL stint. I'm not happy with Suarez at 3B: but he could be plan B, if Mayer is hurt, but then we'd need a plan B at 1B, and I'm not sure we can say Casas is for the same reasons as Mayer. I'm not sure we pay Lowe $10M to be plan B (Saurez to DH as Lowe plays 1B.)

I agree with your points. I thought Brez met all this criteria and then some, over the winter. Although Houck had questions over his drop-off in 2024, I still saw him as a viable back--up ace to Crochet and a decent or better #2 SP'er in MLB. I think Bello and Crawford looked like the "2 good pitchers to get to 4." The next "3 to get to 6" looked as good as or better than most other teams have for their 5-7 slots: Buehler, Giolito with Sandoval due back in AUG. Where I really like what Brez did was have another 4-5 SP'ers as depth that was designed to not have to trade for a Dustin May at the deadline: Dobbins, Fitts, Priester, Winckowski and later came Newcomb. I did not foresee Tolle or Early as options, and Brez traded away Priester, but there was still that extended group of 4-6 pitchers as fall-back #5's. (Brez later traded for Harrison.) I expected we'd use some in the pen, and felt maybe that was why Brez supposedly neglecting the pen by adding "just" Chapman and Wilson. Hardly any SP'ers gave us pen help, and the amount of SP'ers to the IL was shocking, this year. That's no excuse for not doing better than D May at the deadline, but I have to admit it was a decent strategy to begin with. Why overpay on deadline deals: just make them in the winter at lower costs- not that Crochet came cheap, but Brez did well to get Priester, Fitts & Gio last year, too.

How many times do I have to admit I was wrong labeling slumping players as crappy batters? I was wrong on that. (I do think Bogey has established he is no longer an elite batter, but he is not really crappy, yet.) I made a point about some of the teams you listed as NOT having 2 crappy batters that I felt actually do. I was wrong on some, but you will not respond to the point for teams I was right about. I ask for a response, and you just repeat the mistakes I made and have already agreed I made. Can you answer? Does HOU have 2-3 crappy batters in their line-up every day? (Maybe 2, now that Yordan is back,) Is Iggy, Clement and Volpe crappy hitters? I know some can field very well, as does Rafaela, who Fred calls worse than crappy as a batter, even when he was hovering around the league norm OPS of about .720. Do some of the team you listed have 2 crappy hitters or not? Last chance to actually answer. I'll stop here.

Campbell had 3 hits, too. He's up to .828. Guerrero may be nearing a call-up. Arias is up to .757, now. I think he holds his national ranking.

Yes, and when did I disagree with that. I get your point and agree. My response to one part of your point, and I admitted some of the guys I suggested were crappy, were not. They were just having a bad year or two. I was only responding to this exchange: (Yes, I went and reread it) Yes. Dodgers, Padres, Yankees, Blue Jays, Tigers, Astros

I was just responding to one comment you made about several teams not having 2 or more "crappy batters." Why not tell me how the Astros don't have 2 crappy hitters? Yes, Ref is a role player, but he's been a top batter vs LHPs since he came to BOS. He's legit. This is year 4. He's a top 20 OPS guy vs LHPs. He's a bench player due to be a RHB, but not a crappy batter. I like Lowe, but if 70% of pitchers were lefty, you'd be saying Ref squashes Lowe's resume. Since we've seen Anthony and Abreu go down, and this after losing Casas then Devers, we do have 2 or more crappy batters in every line-up. My point was so do other teams. I was not disputing your point about us having 2+, now. I am not disputing your entire point. I actually agree with most of it. Why not respond to my point about some of the teams that do have 2+ crappy batters. You mentioned SDP, and it was a good point. Arraez and Bogey are not known crappy batters: they are just having a bad year or maybe starting to be somewhat crappy, but answer about the other teams I mentioned. Is Volpe crappy? Does HOU not have 2-3 crappy batters? Clement is a .671 career batter. Straw is .631. Are they good batters just having a bad year? Hell, Ref and Romy can hit .631 v RHPs- off handed.

Good point.

I'm not sure how much trade value Grissom & Sogard have, especially for winter trades where most teams are not looking to add more players to their 40. I'd add Eaton and Toro to the list of trade guys or non tenders. Lowe is a tough call. We may try to non tender then re-sign at lower than than the arb estimate. We may just choose to roll the dice and not protect Sandlin, but I think he has trade value. If we end up making some sort of 3 for 1 trade for Ryan or Keller, where all 3 are 40 man roster players, we should have room to add Sandlin to the 40, plus a couple or three signings. (Maybe Sandlin will be part of that trade.)

I actually thought we went 11-12 deep in the rotation, last winter, and I was not counting Newcomb, who won a slot in ST'ing plus Tolle and Early. Crochet Houck (our 2024 ace) Bello Buehler Giolito Crawford (IP leader in '24) Criswell (was good in '24- 2nd best SP ERA) Fitts Dobbins Winckowski Sandoval (Expected AUG) Whitlock was expected to be FT pen, but he was a consideration for the rotation Murphy I was more worried about top pen arms and too much mediocre depth, there. I expected some of those on the list above to be used from the pen. Hardly any were, except Whitlock.

So, Alonso at 1B, Suarez (gasp) at 3B and Mayer at 2B. Okay with me, as long as we trade for Joe Ryan. Alonso or Suarez at 1B, Marte at 2B and Mayer/Story at 3B is fine, too.

TOR is up 5-0 on HOU in the 8th. It looks like they might be too far ahead to catch, unless we sweep them. HOU is doing their very best to let SEA win the ALW and TEX get back in the race. They play 3 v SEA and 3 V TEX, next week.

I guess at KCR and at HOU is not as tough as it looked a couple months ago. The Dodgers is a tough series. COL is horrible.

I'm moving that way, too. Or signing a big bopper 1Bman (Alonso or move Suarez to 1B and play Story/Mayer at 3B.)

I'm not so sure Rafaela is a lock, but it does seem like the trade talk is more about Duran vs Abreu.