moonslav59

I think the thought was that Contreras is not a big improvement over the end of year Sox 1Bman. It's not how I see it, but I only stated how others might see it. I would not project bringing back N Lowe would net us a .790 1B OPS in 2026, so I see Contreras an improvement over Lowe and a major improvement over Toro and the others not named Romy in 2025.

Certainly not any decent SP'er. We could trade Duran for Bubic and maybe Lynch or someone else. We could trade Duran for Mitch Keller. We could trade Duran for Singer or maybe even Lodolo. I bet MIN takes Duran for Pablo Lopez + cash, and SEA takes him for Luis Castillo + cash. I doubt Duran + Crawford for Ragans works either, but something like that is possible.

I guess one could view Contreras and his near .790 OPS and about the same as Lowe's .790 OPS. I see Contreras as a very significant addition, and a solid solution to the 1B position that has been an issue, whenever Casas has been hurt, which has been more often than not. Before Casas, we were dealing with Dalbec, Chavis and god knows who else. Now, we need a 3Bman or 2Bman. It has to be an impact player. I like Donovan, but I don't see him as a major get, and I'd rather have Mayer/Romy at 2B than 3B, unless we get a major 2Bman like KMarte or Bichette.

I'm not so sure about that. Just because Brez is "asking the world" doesn't mean some hefty offers are not being made- just none Brez likes, right now. Brez may also have told a team or two that he may take their offer, but needs another issue settled first. I can't imagine why other GMs don't value Duran highly. All it takes is one. It doesn't look like there is any talk on Abreu or Rafaela, either, but we heard nothing about Sonny Gray or Oviedo, until BAM! I also feel like they have a lot of faith in Campbell, and having Duran twice blocks KC from an OF slot. KC's other position, DH, is maybe 3 times blocked with Masa, Casa and Romy. We have a major hole in the infield. Some think we have a hole in the #2 rotation slot. Either way, filling one of those holes and replacing Duran with Campbell just makes too much sense to not happen. Nothing against Duran. He's one of our top 2-3 offensive players, right now, and our offense looks worse than last year. I'd love to keep him, but I think it is wasteful play Duran (and even worse another of the 3 OF'ers) at DH.

I do, too. The thing is that other teams are not done adding either, especially the Yanks & Jays. As of now, it does look like the over/under should be 84.5.

Even if we signed Bregman and Ranger Sanchez, I'd still trade an OF'er.

Why greatly diminish Duran's value by DH'ing him? His value as an OF'er (4th highest fWAR among OF'ers since 2024) is worth more to another team than to us as a DH, where his 2025 OPS is about the same as Masa's career OPS. Same thing with minimizing Rafaela's value by playing him at 2B. We have a great need at 2B or 3B. I think we could use both, but that is NOT happening. I'd also think we'd be way better with a solid #2 SP'er. Any improvement in these areas would far outweigh they gain we get by benching Masa/Casa/Romy/Campbell at DH for Duran.

Brez & BTV Values: 74 Crochet 31 Tolle 27 Narvaez 18 Witherspoon 13 Soto 12 Romy 11 Gray & Slaten 10 Gonzales 8 Oviedo, Phillips & Rivas 7 Harrison 6 Bennet, Sandlin & Eyanson 5 Sandoval 4 Weissert & Godbout 3 Delzine, Y Rod & Cason ____________________ Bloom's '21 to '23 additions were nice, too: 61 Anthony 55 Mayer 27 Abreu 24 Early 22 Arias 19 Campbell 10 Whitlock

Looking at BTV and the Phillies, and nothing against DD. I love the guy. They have an interesting mix of values. They have 9 contracts "underwater," including some high value players with higher contracts. Only Castellanos has zero skill value, but still 9 guys! On the plus side, they have a surprisingly few very high value players beyond Christopher Sanchez at a whopping 198! Their next two highest players are in the minors: Painter at 52 & Aidan Miller at 49. Big drop off.... Only 5 guys between 9 and 28: 28 Bryson Scott (2 yrs left) 26 Jesus Lazardo (1 yr left) 19 B Marsh (2) 17 Jh Duran (2) 17 Justin Crawford (minors) 15 Orion Kerkering Conversely, the Sox have 5 guys underwater (Story, Masa, Hicks, Chapman, Contreras & Houck) The Sox have 25 players at 8 or more. (26, if you count Rivas at 7.5) Their top 10 are all in MLB: Crochet, Anthony, Mayer, Duran, Rafaela, Tolle, Abreu, Narvaez, Bello & Early.) Arias is at 22 and Witherspoon 18 with Soto at 13. Crawford, Campbell & Casas are between 18-22. Romy, Gray, Slaten, Whitlock 10-12 w Oviedo at 8. Lots of those plus value players are Brez guys. For just 2 seasons- not bad.

I just can't see how Arenado could ever be viewed as a plus as anything more than a back-up corner IF'er and late inning D guy.

The difference as a DH, yes, but his value as an OF'er is much higher. Duran has the 4th highest fWAR among OF'ers since 2024. (Abreu and Rafaela are top 24.) The guy have high value.

After all winter deals are done, yes.

Yes, my bad, Ted. Sorry.

He was such a "raw hitter" when he broke into the bigs. The thing is, he seems to be able to hit bad pitches just well enough to get by, but surely some discipline helped and may/should continue to do so.

I'm not a big Vientos fan, but I might give Crawford & DHam for Vientos & $2M. (BTV approves) I'm not sure further depleting our rotation depth is a good idea, and we'd still have an extra OF'er and DH. I doubt the NYM take Casas and DHam for Vientos, but BTV approves. This way, we'd give Masa a little more room at DH, but Duran would still be our DH- not Masa.

How high should they be valued? When I look at BTV values assigned, they look about right, and I'm trying to be impartial. 306 Julio Rodriguez (569-263) 110 Carroll (210 skill-100 pay) 94 Soto (277-183) 85 Tatis (380! -190) 61 Anthony (220 Skill-166 pay) 46 Duran (83) 36 Rafaela (94 due to more years of control) 27 Abreu (56) 19 Campbell (112 due to more years) NYY: 25 Judge (due to mega contract his skill is valued at 265), 25 Chisholm (26 skill), 24 Dominguez (48) Hell, JRod is valued more highly than the top 7 Sox players combined!

Maybe Brez had and still has littleman syndrome.

That is rather telling, but almost every team can easily afford to spend $30-50M more a year and still make a nice profit, so I don't see this as being the central argument for JH being "cheap." From the time I became a Sox fan in the early 70's until JH came to won, we never came close to meeting the Yanks in spending. To me, the reason the curse was broken and 3 more rings followed was the nice roster Dan D handed Theo and the spending increase by JH. That is a context being missed by harping on our 23rd ranking. I'm pissed at JH, too. I'm not defending him, but the guy has not been "cheap-" just maybe cheaper or more selective in his spending habits, as Kimmi points out over and over.

He'd need a resurrection not a rejuvination. OPS by age: .891 at 31 .774 at 32 .719 at 33 .666 at 34 He turns 35 in April. If he was on our roster, I'd want him as a bench guy and late inning defensive replacement player, but then again, I don't even want Hicks on the 26, and only conditionally want Yoshida on the 26 based on Casas being on the IL or struggling and no OF'er traded, this winter. If his AAV keeps us from adding someone else, no thanks.

I'd like to keep Rafaela and prefer trading your guy, Duran. I'm pretty certain other GMs see Rafaela like we do and not like Drewski. They value him highly and would give up a lot to get him, plus, you might get your way and see Duran in CF. I know you prefer we trade Abreu, but you stand alone in your belief he's not a great defensive RF'er, and I might add that Duran IS a great defensive CF'er. The context for my suggesting we might trade Rafaela over Duran or Abreu is if we DO NOT add a big bat at 3B/2B. If that happens, we need the offense from the 3 OF'ers not named Rafaela.

Good points. I see it this way. Lodolo is ___ better than Sandoval/Oviedo/Crawford/Harrison (our likely 4/5 SP'er.) He may even be better than Bello. (I think he is.) Measure the difference and compare to this: Duran starting in the OF, instead of Anthony, Abreu or Rafaela. Or Duran's ____ value as a DH. .774 was Duran's 2025 OPS and .780 career OPS. (His speed adds enormous value on offense.) .762 is Yoshida's career OPS. To me Lodolo's improvement over who he replaces is greater than Duran's improvement over Yoshida/Casas/Romy/Campbell at DH. In a vacuum, I'd prefer Duran.

Well said. I'd like to add this: While a .732 OPS is not great, it's pretty damn good for a catcher (Narvaez,) and since he's a rookie, maybe he can improve on that. Only 6 catchers had more PAs and a higher OPS than Narvaez. Out of 37 catchers with 250+ PAs, Narvaez ranked 15th in OPS and 10th in Catcher HRs at 15. I have no idea how well he will hit going forward, but as of now, I do not see him as a liability on offense. I also have some faith in Ceddanne's continued improvement. 2023+2024 VS 2025 for Rafaela: 2.9 BB%> 4.8% 27.1 K%>19.9% .275 OBP> .295 OBP ,389 SLG>.414 SLG His future is highly unpredictable.

Pretty sure this is how Brez sees it, too.

Well said. I hope we end up at a projected98 wins.

I'm agreeing with you (and notin.) Clearly teams use the DH to rotate players in at varying degrees. Some as a way to rest a player but keep his bat in the line-up. Some to find the best bat match-up with a pitcher while trying to field the best defensive line-up. Some as mostly a platoon set-up. Some due to injuries. Some combining these ideas with others.