moonslav59
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Everything posted by moonslav59
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Individual ERAs since June 6th: 9+ IP unless noted SP'ers: 2.16 Johnson (8.1 IP) 3.99 Price 4.21 ERod 4.32 Velazquez (8.1- some as RP'er) 4.55 Sale 5,73 J Smith (some as RP'er) 6.54 Porcello 9.00 DHern (3 IP) 13.50 Weber (1.1 IP) RP'ers: 1.38 Workman 1.93 Hembree (5 IP) 2.77 Brasier 2.93 Brewer 3.86 Lakins 4.11 Taylor 4.50 Wright (6 IP) 7.43 Barnes 8.53 Shawaryn 8.53 Walden 15.00 Poyner (3 IP)
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Our SP'ing ERA since June 6th is 5.00 (20th in MLB). 29 games/ 145.2 IP (a hair over 5 IP/GS) 1.44 WHIP (21st)
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Exactly. We can't blame June/July on a few missed innings pitched in ST'ing. (I think counting March/April- 30 games- as being related to restgate is pushing it, too. Our starters have had one good month. I'm hopeful they all return to form, soon and begin carrying us for the remainder.
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I never watch it. Sometimes I don't even look at the box score. The game sucks, the break sucks, and extending the break to more than 3 days really sucks.
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I feel the same way. I wish I didn't have to deal with these conflicted sentiments, but if he can give us some quality innings, it will make it easier. -
Nobody is going to make the Mets an offer the Sox can't top. He's not good enough to bring back more than what we have. The question will be, "Is he worth further emptying the farm by X amount or not?"
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I hate the AS break. Too many days off without a real game.
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I Am Now aa Official Marco Fan---see Why
moonslav59 replied to bosoxmal's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
There's no way we trade for 3 solid pitchers. You are right, if that's what we need, we should decide to be sellers. -
When you compare the remaining Yankee games, the Red Sox record is much worse than the Yankee record, so the head-to-head games between the two tilts the winning percentage in NY's favor as having an easier schedule. I'd like to know the winning % of the remaining teams the Yanks and Sox play minus the Sox-Yanks games. I count the head to head games as equally challenging to both teams, but our winning% is less than their's, so it makes their schedule look easier than maybe it is. Who has the easier schedule beyond the head-to-head games. Same with TB vs BOS.
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That's a bit deceiving. He had just 99.1 IP over his first 18 starts, last year, and he has 102.2 after 18 starts this year. That's 10 more outs over 18 starts, which is nice, but it doesn't make up for this... I love seeing ERod go deeper, but his ERA is 0.63 higher, and his WHIP has gone up 0.08. The team was 15-3 in his first 18 starts last year, and his ERA was 3.62. (It went to 3.34 after his 20th game.) The team is 13-5 in his starts, this year...still really good! Those 10 outs make a difference on a struggling pen but so do the two more ER's allowed over those 3.1 more IP.
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Bumgarner is still somewhat in his prime. He turns 30 soon. He does have some concerns. He's been declining for 3+ years: WHIP 1.01 (2015) 1.03 1.09 1.24 1.20 This year ERA+ 146 (2016) 128 118 105 This year His K rate of 9.3 s still above his career 8.8. K/BB is 4.79 (career 4.17) He's a "gamer" for sure, but I doubt we have the goods to get him, and even if we did, it might take out top 3-4 prospects to get him, and our farm would be less than zero. I wouldn't do it for a 2 month rental.
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I'd like to see how tough each schedule is after taking away the head-to-head games. For example, the Yanks may have an "easier schedule" because they play the Sox schedule instead of us playing the Yanks. It's an equally tough game for both teams, IMO. If you count those games as even, then maybe that changes things.
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It's hard to like Wright, but the guy has had some very nice and long stretches of pitching very well, unlike many of the pitchers on our roster.
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No love for Workman? (I like Hembree more than Brewer.)
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Well, if that is the going rate for Keuchel, then Porcello will probably get something close to that number/years offer. I'd never offer close to that, so I guess I'm saying I'd prefer to say, "Thank you very much. You did very well in a Sox uniform. Good luck with your future plans elsewhere."
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Prices have come down on non elite SP'ers: $15M x 2 Charlie Morton $13M x 1 Dallas Keuchel $10M x 3 Lance Lynn $9.5M x 2 A. Sanchez $7.8M x 2 G Richardson $11M x 1 M Harvey $9M x 1 T Cahill Okay, maybe $20M/2 is a bit insulting, but when I look at the list above, they all look like overpays, except for maybe Morton, and he turns 36 this November!
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Look what happened to Keuchel. I'm just not sure what number would be "insulting" anymore.
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I think this is DD & Cora's plan. I'm not sure it's enough, and I have my doubts about Eovaldi's effectiveness coming off a serious injury and being thrown into a somewhat unfamiliar role. I'd rather see us get a solid closer. Wil Smith may cost too much, but someone reliable but maybe not spectacular. ________ (New closer) Workman (8th/9th) Eovaldi (7-8-9 - 1- 2 inning guy) Wright (7-8-9 - 1- 2 inning guy) Barnes (7-8- one inning) Hembree (7-8- one inning) Braiser (5-6-7- one inning) Taylor (5-6-7- one inning) Walden AAA Johnson/Velazquez 5th starter or AAA (Velazquez)/Traded (Johnson)
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Because they are worried, they are pampering him. There should be no issues with this strategy, IMO.
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Rick has been a bit up and down over the last 5-6 years, but if you take out his Cy Young season, his fWAR has been between 1.7 and 3.0 every season. He's actually one of the most consistent performers in all of baseball, by seasons. He's on pace for about a 2.3 WAR, this year. This is largely driven by maxing out IP's almost every year. fWAR loves IP'd. His issue this year is a Dr. Jekyl & Mr. Hide syndrome. He's been about as inconsistent as he's probably ever been. 11.12 ERA his first 3 games 2.45 his next 4 games 4.62 the next 6 games 1.32 the next 2 games 12.75 his last 3 games Or, breaking it down another way: 11.12 his first 3 games, 12.75 his last 3 games and 3.30 the 12 games in between. When you look at from the second perspective, it looks like he's been fine for 12 games and has just had two really bad 3 game stretches. It give you hope he can have 12 game stretches of better than decent pitching, but it just doesn't feel that way right now, while he's in the midst of a horrible 3 game stretch.
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I'm fine with the idea of pampering our SP'ers earlier in the season, so they can be fresher and stronger when you need them most, which is usually around now or a bit later in the season. Considering our place in the standings, I'd think now is the time to unleash our starters, especially when we play a contender by allowing them to go another inning deeper than we have been doing. This could also take a lot of pressure off our overused and struggling-to-stay-above-water pen. (I trust Sox management to know Price's limits.)
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BR has 74 IP as a starter and 2 IP as a RP'erfor German. Fangraphs is always messed up in this area.
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In a sense, we also added Hembree to our more recently troubled pen. Maybe they do think Eovaldi, Wright and Hembree is all the pen needs and they'll focus all their resources on a 5th starter. Could happen. If it were me, I'd stick with Velazquez/Johnson as my #5, trade for a solid closer, and use Eovaldi like the Andrew Miller of old. Having Eovaldi and Wright able to go 2 IP, if needed, would take an enormous strain off the rest of the pen and may allow guys like Workman, Hembree, Barnes and Brasier to thrive in less high leverage situations while being used less often.
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It may not be all that objective, but they have been pretty good with their rankings when separating prospects by value. Also, the bias for Sox players in general should not sway them to give Dalbec the Defensive Player of the Year Award, if he wasn't at least a good defender among a system possible lacking one great defender. Their scouting reports often mention weak areas or give coded messages like "this player will likely be moved to 1B."
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It's an insult only if some other GM offers him $15M or more a year, which they might. Probably the best way to handle Porcello, without insulting him, is to offer him a QO, but I'm not sure I'd want him back at close to $19M/1, since I'm thinking my to offer is $20M/2.
