moonslav59

Now, a step forward. It is totally possible that DD can have no spending limit but still see how ridiculous it would be to pay Kimbrel $29M for 2019. It's DD who is making the right choice. It's n ot Henry telling him, "No."

There's probably a better chance of him getting healthy than giving all that money back.

He may keep the dream of a comeback alive for a year or two more. That's too much to just give back. Maybe he would restructure the deal into a 25 year personal services deal.

He may never play again, but retiring and giving up all those millions is a long shot call. Dempster did it, but that was just one year left.

Only Sox pitchers lack durability. Now that Paxton is a Yank, he's a lock for 200+ IP.

Steve Adams.... https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/02/a-closer-look-at-the-red-sox-and-the-luxury-tax.html Here is part of the article If the Sox were to pay Kimbrel a $17.5MM annual salary, the first $4,703,803 of that salary would close the gap between Boston’s current “actual” payroll and the $246MM threshold. As noted above, that’d come with a $1,986,937 luxury hit, coming to a total of $6,690,740. The remaining $12,769,197 would come with a hefty tax of $9,576,898. That’s a total of $11.564MM just in taxes before considering the money the team would actually owe to Kimbrel himself. Viewed through that lens, Boston would effectively be on the hook for a stunning $29,036,835 in 2019 if they were to sign Kimbrel at the record rate he’s quite likely eyeing. (A multi-year deal, of course, might have greater or lesser salaries in its various seasons, though that’s all averaged for the CBT.) Frankly, even beyond any concerns about lengthy commitment to a not-so-youthful reliever, it’s pretty clear to see why the Sox don’t have much interest in retaining Kimbrel unless his price tag craters (at which point a plethora of other teams would join the bidding). Though the total luxury tax bill would still not make up an enormous amount of the team’s total payroll-related spending, it would perhaps turn a Kimbrel signing from a hefty investment to an eye-popping splurge. That math is also informative when examining why the Sox have passed over other top-end relievers. For instance, beating the Yankees’ three-year, $27MM offer to Adam Ottavino by a margin of $500K annually would’ve still been costly for Boston. As with any contract, the first $4,703,803 of the deal would’ve been taxed at $1,986,937. The remaining $4,796,197 would come with a $3,597,148. In total, signing Ottavino at a $9.5MM annual salary would effectively cost $15.084MM in 2019.

LOL, BTW, I never copy and paste stats.

Agreed, but ERA for RP'ers is even worse.

Red Sox To Sign Dan Runzler By Jeff Todd | February 1, 2019 at 7:35pm CDT The Red Sox have added reliever Dan Runzler on a minors deal, per Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com (via Twitter). It isn’t yet known whether he’ll receive an invitation to participate in MLB camp. A southpaw who’ll soon turn 34, Runzler has appeared in five big league seasons, though he hasn’t been a substantial contributor since 2013. All told, he owns a 3.89 ERA with 9.7 K/9 and 5.4 BB/9 over 76 1/3 innings at the game’s highest level. Runzler has mostly toiled at Triple-A and in the Atlantic League over recent years, but did briefly crack the bigs with the Pirates in 2017. He possesses mid-nineties heat from the left side, but hasn’t consistently been able to command it. In 2018, he threw 48 innings of 2.81 ERA ball with the Sugar Land Skeeters, racking up 58 strikeouts but also doling out 27 free passes.

Maybe after BA.

Is this all we have to talk about? Sadly, that's just about a yes.

Sometimes, you really grasp the full scope of something!

Jack!

I say... 60% BOS 35% NYY 5% Others

Yes! When you make trades at the deadline, you only count 1.3 of the salary. In theory, we could trade for 3 guys making salaries of $8M and only owe $8M. That's better than signing one guy to 8M/1 right now.

You are not getting my point. If a pitcher comes in with 2 outs, it is much harder for him to let up his own earned run than if he comes in with 0 or 1 out. He only needs to get one out to keep his ERA for that game at 0.00. Coming in with no outs, the pitcher has to get 3 outs or hope the guy that releives him does not let his runners score). Scenario 1: Pitcher comes in with 2 outs and none on. He walks 3 guys. He needs to get just 1 out.What's the chance he lest up a run, or 2 or more? Scenario 2: Pitcher comes in with 0 outs and none on. He walks 3 guys. he needs to get 3 outs. What's the chance he lest up a run, or 2 or more? All things being equal, a pitcher who always comes in with 2 outs should have a much better ERA than one who always comes in with no outs (or 1 out).

If you look at the hype factor, the Yankee fans were hyping their players last year as much as Paxton now. They had Lynn and Happ, too. Sonny Gray was viewed as a big addition (by me, too). Is how people feel about Paxton now all that much more rosy than they felt about Lynn & Gray last year? Is Ottavino really an upgrade over Robertson? Maybe Didi never comes back or is not the same upon return? All we hear about is the severity of Pedey and Wright's injuries and Sale's status in the second half of 2018.

Yes, and I've discussed the downsides many times, as well. I did get upset with all the naysayers last summer. All teams go through rough patches, and I guess some people just assume the team can only keep playing like they look in the last 2-3 or 7 games, or whatever. To me, we had a great team on paper day one. That awesome start showed we were great. We had some bumps along the way, but we were always great. The playoffs were proof.

I agree, but the point was made to show that this thread is not always optimistic. Sometimes the team is better than those on this thread, including myself, think they are.

I think I did the same on the poll someone posted, but when I did my projections, I think I said 100 or 102. I guess last year's realistic thread was pessimistic.

I qualified my recent post as being the optimistic view and not the probable view, but none of my suggested upside possibilities were unrealistic. Optimism and realism are not opposites of each other. (Also, I have been critical of many aspects of the Sox over the years. I've been tough on Moreland, Holt, managers, GMs and other players.)

Moon, that’s a homer post if I’ve ever seen one, wow. 1) I said I was giving the optimistic view. 2) Isaid many of what I listed are not probable hopes. 3) We may only need 1/3 to come true. Assuming others stay more or less even Yes, you subtracted Drew Pomeranz. You’re replacing Pomeranz (who ended up as the last guy in your pen) with more Brian Johnson time. Johnson is not good, so this might end up a wash. 1) I doubt Johnson takes all those innings, but if he does he probably won't have an ERA over 6.00. 2) Wright and Velazquez are available. 3) Eovaldi, in theory, should take all of Pom and other scrubs' starts. You guys keep talking about Steven Wright. He had another knee surgery in November. He’s likely to start the year on the DL. He had the same surgery as pedroia. Counting him as death isn’t a great idea. 1) I'm not counting on them. I'm saying they are hopes. 2) Wright was almost ready for the playoffs. 3) I admit both are just hopes and prayers, but they are good if healthy. Pearce has never proven to be anything more than a platoon guy, and now he’s a 36 yr old platoon guy. 1) A 6 month good platoon guy is better than a 2 month one. 2) His numbers vs RHP have been pretty good as he ages. 3) He's better than HRam and gives us better depth, if Moreland gets hurt (again). Eovaldi for a full year will help, assuming he plays the full year. He’s the man of glass with questionable yearly production. You’re expecting the guy from the playoffs. You’ll see him in spurts, but a lot of frustration will accompany him. He's a better hope than Pom, Johnson and Velazquez. Sale and ERod are healthy? Sale wasn’t healthy to end the year with a shoulder problem. How do you know he’s going to be healthy? He missed 10 starts due to the injury and there was no post season resolution. And ERod is likely healthy, but he’s also made of glass. He’s never proven to stay healthy. 1) Sale says he feels great. 2) ERod's injuries are never his arm or shoulder. They have been, more or less, bad luck. 3) We could get 120 more innings from them, but even 50-60 more would be a huge boost. (Johnson stays in the pen.) Nunez looked slow last year. The knee injury from 2017 clearly isn’t fixed. He didn’t have a procedure. You’ll see more of the same. Again, probably, but he looked more nimble at season's end than the rest. Brock Holt is a very solid super sub. If he is your full year starting 2b, his effectiveness will wane. He shouldn't have to be, but I agree. He did look more durable last year. Devers should be better. He’s better than his 2018 showed. You know as well as I do, he very easily could be great. Your 1b platoon got way more than you could have hoped. Moreland played to his career norms. HanRam was good for a month. Pearce hit like JD for two months. Asking for more is greedy. I agree, I pushed it here. We very well may fall short of our 1B OPS of .794 last year, but if we can stick to a straight platoon, and our 1Bmen hit their career splits, we might see this: .780 Moreland vs RHP .852 Pearce vs LHPs That may end up being over .800 combined. Lol, expecting improvement offensively from the C position when they’re not hitters is rosy glasses. 1) Expecting or suggesting what might be with their career norms is "rosy?" 2) Vaz is still pre-prime. Leon may not catch as much, if Vaz stays healthy. 3) Just asking for .650 would be a huge gain. Expecting improvement from JBJ is the same. He’s streaky. Again, I never came close to saying I expect any of this. I even went out of my way to say most are NOT probable. I do think JBJ's chances are 50-50. He's had 2 seasons over .800, and last year he was good+ for about 5 months in a row You guys got a good Price season, a great Sale 2/3 season, career type seasons from JD, Bogey, and Betts. You lost one of the best closers in baseball and a rather reliable setup man and aren’t replacing them. Actual big league depth isn’t there. Outside of Porcelli, every pitcher in your rotation has questions, three of the arm related. While I guess you could say the Sox May improve in fantasy land somewhere, chances are one of your pitchers is gonna miss the year. Your middle of the order won’t be AS devastating. Betts and Bogey missed time. Even if they drop some, but play more, they could add value. You’re in the AL East. The Sox, Yanks and Rays won nearly 300 games. The yanks and rays got better. If you’re not getting better, you fall behind. We can drop some and still beat your ass! (With all due respect.

True. I'm glad the rest of the team is so solid.

I've been accused of being a homer a few times, and I'm usually on the optimistic side with my yearly projections, but I really see a lot of hopeful areas on this team, despite the obvious drop in our pen value on paper this winter. I know it's asking a lot for Betts and JD to even repeat 2018, let alone pick up some of the slack with the expected pen drop off. We might very well need to pick up slack from Kimbrel's bolting to a drop off from Betts and JD and maybe someone else. Maybe none of the things I'm about to list as possible areas to improve are probable, but several could be, and the sheer number of them gives us a better chance that several should occur. The main point is, we don't need all of these to happen. We may not even need half to happen for us to overcome some declines in a few areas. Maybe even a third could be enough. Here it goes: 1) Addition by subtraction. Bye-bye to... Pomeranz 6.08 ERA in 74 IP Kelly (maybe not really fits here) 4.39 in 66 IP Beeks, Scott & Haley (19 ERs in 23 IP) HRam .708 in 195 PAs (More for Pearce) Kinsler .604 in 143 (More for Pedey/Holt/Nunez) 2) Eovaldi and Pearce for 6 months not 2. 3) Sale & ERod stay healthy. This alone could do the trick by giving us 100 more IP combined. 4) Johnson, Velazquez, Hembree, Workman, Thornburg or Smtih finally come of age or return to their brief moments of greatness. 5) Steven Wright. The guy has shown he can pitch like an ace. 6) Pedey. Maybe a long shot, but the there is huge upside potential at 2B. 7) Nunez plays like 2017 not 2018 or Holt continues to build his stamina/dependability. 8) Here' my favorite: Rafael Devers. This kid could bust out in a way nobody can imagine. I'm almost positive, barring an injury, he'll take a major step this season. 9) The 1B platoon offers some hope for a gain over 2018's pretty low numbers. Moreland not having to play hurt could help. Pearce is hard to project, but there is upside desspite his age. 10) Catcher offense. If Vaz and Leon can hit their career OPS, we could see a 100 point gain here. 11) JBJ. He had his longest steady streak of his career (4 months) and a spectacular post season. Is it far-fetched to think he might be able to do it for 6 months. 12) Bogey. He took a huge step up last year at age 25. He has not reached prime yet, so there is reason to hope he could keep improving. 13) Betts and JD are likely to regress, but there is some hope for the same or even better. Betts is still pre-prime and JD is not old. 14) Porcello. Can he give us a season close to his Cy Young year? This is his contract year, and he'll only be 30. 15) Price. Maybe his playoff performance and the loss of that pesty monkey clawing on his back will complete his re-invention as a true pitcher and not a thrower. Maybe. 16) Barnes & Brasier. Both gave lots of reasons for having hopes and promises. 17) The farm. I've been pretty down on our farm, but there is some hope we could get a significant boost from someone- most likely later in the season: Chavis or Dalbec Shawaryn or D Hernandez Poyner, Lakins, Walden, Houck or Feltman 18) Cora. He's not an improvement, but maybe he learned some things from his first season as a manager. 19) Beni. The sky could still be the limit for this kid. Ifq he can improve his offense vs LHPs, he could be top 10 in several categories. 20) Did I forget to say how happy I am we still have... Chris Freakin' Sale!

I hear you, and I'm not trying to prove you wrong. I wish we had a better closer or an extra set-up guy that is solid. I just look at all the teams that have tried to follow the strong pen trend getting eliminated early. I'm not one to claim one way to build a winner should be based on the most recent success story, and the playoffs are small sample sizes, but last winter many here, including myself, felt our pen was the weakest area on the team (not weak but weakest), and we dominated the playoffs despite the fact that our closer, the best in MLB over the last 9 years, was a walking time bomb that never detonated. There are many ways to make it to the dance or win it all. Teams have won with weak starters or weak pens. Weak offenses or weak defenses. Some team win with multiple weak areas have won. Look at the 2015 Royals.Imagine the lack of hope Sox fans would have had going into that season and more importantly, those playoffs. Only 2 of their top 8 SP'er had an ERA below 4.08. 2 of their top 6 were over 4.76. Their pen was dominating and helped lead to the whole idea that a strong pen and defense might be all that is needed. (Wade Davis, Greg Holland, Kelvin HerreraRyan Madson & Franklin Morales) Their offense was not bad, in fact 6 of their top 10 PA players hit over .800, but the other 4 of their top 9 were .706, .640, .614 and .552. Escobar had the second most PAs on the team and had a .614 OPS. We'd be going bonkers if we had a "weakness" like that! (.734 team OPS) Nobody with more than 22 HRs and only 2 guys with 93 or more RBIs.