moonslav59

He would be a nice, cost-effective signing next winter.

soxprospects.com... With Dustin Pedroia coming back from injury, second base is one of the few starting positions that is a question mark for the Red Sox. Chavis confirmed to Christopher Smith of Masslive.com that he has been working out at second base. Chavis also revealed that he is down 14 pounds from last year, and the increased mobility will help him if he does have to play the middle infield. http://news.soxprospects.com/2019/02/fort-report-pitchers-and-catchers.html

That was my point. His return was like coming out of ST'ing- only with higher velocity. Did you expect peak velocity immediately upon his return? (Yes, there is reason for concern- same with the health of Paxton, CC and several SP'er in MLB.)

They were up by 5 with 6 to go, but yes, the Yanks had a chance until near the end of the season.

No, but 15 innings shows he was not unable to pitch. He's had the whole winter off. The tales spun by Jacko on his low velocity upon his return were shown to be a higher velocity than his first 6 games of 2018- an expected lower number than his norm but not alarming. Yes, it was concerning he was skipped over that start in the WS, but Price was doing very well, and he asked to be given the ball after seeing what Eovaldi did for the team.

Steamer Projections for 2019 WAR by SP'ers: 1. Sale 6.5 6. Severino 4.5 10. Paxton 4.0 24. Price 3.1 25. Happ 2.8 29. Eovaldi 2.7 34. Tanaka 2.6 42. Porcello 2.5 70. ERod 1.9 98. CC 1.3 AL Rankings with everyone at 32 starts and 200 IP: 1. Sale 6.4 2. Paxton 4.7 4. Severino 4.7 13. Tanaka 3.5 14. Eovaldi 3.3 15. Price 3.2 18. Happ 3.0 21. Porcello 2.8 25. ERod 2.7 37. CC 1.9

What do they say about the rotations?

At what position will the Sox be likely to see the biggest shift in player change in games started from 2018 to 2019- not counting pitching roles? Catcher 78 Leon 66 Vazquez 14 Swihart (If Vaz stays healthy, I could see this: Vaz 100, Leon 50, Swihart 12. +34 Vaz/ -28 Leon) First Base 103 Moreland 25 Pearce 25 HRam 5 Swihart 3 Holt/ 1 Travis (I could see this: 90 Moreland, 66 Pearce, 6 Swihart. +41 Pearce) Second Base 70 Nunez 49 Holt 35 Kinsler 3 Phillips/3 Pedroia/2 Lin (If Pedey is healthy, this would be the winner, maybe something like this: 130 Pedey, 16 Nunez, 16 Holt. If not, maybe this: Nunez 80, Holt 80, Lin 2. Holt +36) Third Base 113 Devers 41 Nunez 4 Holt/2 Phillips/1 Swihart (This could be the winner: Devers 152, Nunez 10. +39 Devers) SS 134 Bogaerts 19 Holt 9 Lin (Barring injury, not much change here: Bogey 152, Holt 5, Lin 5. +18 Bogey) Left Field 123 Beni 32 JD 3 Travis/3 Holt/1 Swihart (Little change: Beni 130, JD 32. +7 Beni) Center Field 129 JBJ 19 Beni 13 Betts 1 Lin (Some change: JBJ 142, Beni 12, Betts 8. JBJ +13) Right Field 115 Betts 25 JD 10 Swihart 8 JBJ 4 Holt (Maybe this: Betts 144, JD 18. +29 Betts) Total OF: 142 Beni 137 JBJ 128 Betts 57 JD 11 Swihart/ 7 Holt/ 3 Travis/ 1 Lin 2019: (Doesn't match with my above projectsions) 152 Beni 152 Betts 142 JBJ 40 JD Your thoughts? +??? Pedey +41 Pearce 1B +39 Devers 3B +36 Holt 2b (assuming no Pedey) +34 Vaz C +24 Betts OF +18 Bogey SS +10 Beni OF -31 Nunez 3B -28 Leon C -17 JD OF Assuming good general health by all.

I hope it's a thick wool hat!

Post season IP 30 Kershaw 26 Price 24 Buehler 22 Eovaldi 19 Ryu 17 Verlander 17 Hill 16 Porcello 15 Sale 14 Miley 13 Cole 10 ERod & Keuchel

It's not fudging anymore than you choosing the sample size that fits your position better. I'm not saying my sample size is a better way to place value or project future value, but it is just as valid as yours and is not fudged. One could argue the playoff numbers vs the very best in baseball and the most recent of all sample sizes should be factored in.

What if we added the 2018 post season numbers to the second half numbers? IP pitcher ERA 26.o Price 3.46 22.1 Eovaldi 1.61 15.1 Porcello 3.52 15.1 Sale 4.11 10.0 ERod 6.00 7.0 Severino 7.71 5.0 Tanaka 1.80 3.0 CC Sab 9.00 2.0 Happ 22.50

Why? Because Jack said all of your 2-5 starters were better than ours based on 2018 WAR. It's not my way of valuing starters, but his.

Why choose just 2018? Could it be because it supports your position? Why not choose last 2-3 years or second half 2018? Here's 2nd half 2018: WAR 2.1 Tanaka 1.5 Severino 1.3 CC 1.1 Happ 0.8 Paxton 1.6 Eovaldi 1.5 Sale 1.5 Price 0.7 Porcello 0.3 ERod Sale = Severino Price> Paxton Tanaka > Porcello Eovaldi > Happ CC > ERod

2nd half Yankee Starter Numbers: ERA Pitcher WHIP 5.57 Severino 1.43 3.95 Paxton 1.12 (SEA) 3.91 CC Sab 1.40 2.85 Tanaka 1.13 2.69 Happ 1.05 Red Sox 1.55 Sale 0.69 2.25 Price 0.97 3.22 Eovaldi 1.27 4.54 Porcello 1.07 5.79 ERod 1.55

I agree. It over inflates everybody's "value" due to big money being spent on negative WAR guys being a major factor in the equation.

Actually, it makes more sense by including the dead money, because it counts all the money spent for such little return, thereby inflating the dollars value per WAR. To me, it's not a useful practice. It's basically saying all players are worth what some dumb GMs pay for aged and declining players post signing performances.

It's hard to know which GM, if any, wants Swihart, and if one or more do want him, they may be waiting (hoping) we just DFA him at some point, and they can get him for free. If it was me, assuming we do not want to go with 3 catchers, I'd trade him for the best we can get, even if I think he's better than what we get back. Get it over with. DFA him, if nobody wants him. (I'm okay with going with 3 catchers, since Swihart offers some depth at other positions, and Pedey's health is highly questionable.)

Oh, so now it's about just last year's stats. A while ago, you were saying we can't count on Betts and JD to have equal or better years. I guess last year only counts when it's in your favor. Also, I rarely go by just last year's numbers, but I can see why you'd want to for the rotation rather than the offense. Paxton had his career high IP and best WHIP last year. He's sure to be great in 2019. Happ has blown away his earlier career numbers with his very fine ages 32-35 four year stretch. He has to be great again in 2019. CC Sabathia has seen his ERA go down for 3 straight years. He turns 39 this year, but it's a lock he keeps getting better in 2019. Tanaka's 2018 ERA was a run better than 2017. It's a lock he repeats 2018 not 2017 in 2019! Severino's down second half of 2018 must be swept under the carpet. Let's just say, he must have been tipping his pitches. He'll be the Cy Young winner in 2019! Let's forget about Price finding himself, and Eovaldi becoming a beast. We can only look at their total 2018 season as an indicator of what 2019 will be. Forget how they ended 2018. Except for Sale, of course. We have to just look at his end of the season and forget the beginning. Forget ERod had his best year. Chalk Porcello up for another 4.28 ERA not 3.15. Our 5 in 2018 with the Sox ERA Pitcher WHIP 2.11 Sale 0.861 3.22 Eovaldi 1.27 3.58 Price 1.14 3.79 ERod 1.27 4.28 Porcello 1.78 with Yanks 2.69 Happ 1.05 (Paxton) 3.39 Severino 1.14 3.65 CC Sab 1.31 3.75 Tanaka 1.13 Yankee starters last year 4.05/1.259 Red Sox starters in 2018 3.77/1.213 Yes, you gained Paxton and a full year of Happ, but we gained a full year of Eovaldi and ERod and maybe Sale and lost Pom (6.31/1.82 in 11 GS) The Yanks lost ... 4.90 Gray 1.49 4.14 Lynn 1.35 (German? 5.57/1.33) I like our 5 just fine. I also like our 6-8 starters. Let the games begin.

Isn't the dollar conversion is based on what FAs got paid as a relation to their recent WAR before signing and not on what they did after the signing?

Did you notice his first game back after the second stint he threw harder than opening day? In fact, he threw harder than his first 7 games of 2018. His lowest velocity games in 2018 were... start 27th start (last start) 4th start 2nd start 26th start 3rd start 6th start 7th start 25th start 1st start 13th start 5th start 12th start 11th,18th start & 24th start (first start after 2nd DL) It doesn't look as hopeless as you make it out to be. The most concerning part is that his velocity went down every one of his last 3 starts of the regular season, but that's not much different from the start of the season. Start of season: 95>92>93>91>96>93>93 Return after first DL (short) 97 Return after 2nd DL (longer) 96>94>93>90 https://www.fangraphs.com/graphs.aspx?playerid=10603&position=P&pitchgraphs=true&statArr=&legend=1&split=base&time=daily&start=2016&end=2018&rtype=mult&gt1=15&dStatArray=FA&ymin=&ymax=

One assumes both DL stints were for the same injury, so the throwing strong after the first stint kin of shows there was no major issue. Now, if his second stint was the result of a worsening of the original issue, then maybe there will be lasting effects. Nobody really knows for sure- not even his doctors, but I'm trusting Sale when he says all is good.

Yes, and so it is not really of much use.

Wright's our 6th starter not our #2. Yes, I am concerned about him. Sale went out once and came back throwing very hard, then he went out again. When he returned his velocity was down. but he was out for a long time and the sample size was kind of small upon his return. Yes, I am concerned about him, too. I'm concerned about Price and Eovaldi, too, but I think Price has shown signs he has reinvented himself as a pitcher not a thrower. He could actually do better this year than last. My point was both teams have health concerns, but you seem to act like ours will all turn out badly and yours will turn out better. You may end up being right, but health histories and age curves make me think we have a better chance of better health and rotation performance in 2019 than the Yanks do. I think most projection services do and will agree that our rotation is better.

...and he was consistent!