moonslav59
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Everything posted by moonslav59
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Yes! It was easy to throw blame at the pen, but with just 1 run scored in the last 10 innings with so many chances, it's on the O.
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One of those games where you keep telling yourself, "We had our chances." I hope we pull this out- somehow, it would be a big boost. With Velazquez & Johnson we are pushing our luck.
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This game we needed 4 closers.
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I did. I got bored. I was glad to see a post that did not really misrepresent my position. On your point about our crappy 5th starter, one could argue having to fill in for Eovaldi not only took a long relief pitcher from our pen, but it also taxed the pen by forcing "pen games" way too often. My position remains unchanged. We need pen help for the rest of the season... like yesterday, but our pen has been a plus, so far this year. To me, it's beyond debate. They have added wins and lessened losses when compared to our rotation up to now.
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I've been calling for a trade for a solid pen arm or two all year and all last winter. I don't have faith in our pen. I like Barnes a lot... as a set-up man. Hembree, Workman and maybe Walden are okay as 6th & 7th inning guys. Brasier is a tough call. My point was about what what our pen has done to date. Like em or not, on the edge of your seat or not, our pen has won more games for us thatn our SP'ers and they have lost less games than our SP'ers, too. It's not about the numbers. I went back and looked at every win and loss our team had over the first 59 games, and it was crystal clear our pen was way better than our rotation. They have slipped since then, and our starters have improved, but not by enough to swing the pen into negative territory. You can argue they did it with magic, with luck, with both, and I'd be fine with that, but they have- some how- some way- gotten the job done more than our starters have. Going forward is another thing. I'm not willing to bet this continues. I still want a solid trade or two, and the sooner the better. Those are two separate issues.
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Word is Chris Paul and Harden can't play with each other next year. Paul's contract is obscene, so any trade will be hampered by it. I don't see a match with the Celtics. I hope my Bucks don't trade for Paul.
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The QO has really hurt FA values recently. If I were Porcello, I'd be worried about becoming the next Keuchel. -
It's hard to know what market rate is these days. I've said before that Keuchel is not a good comp, but Porcello with a QO attached to any signing on the open market may not be valued as much as some of us think he is worth. There are some similarities with Keuchel. Keuchel had an "outlier year" in 2015, and Porcello had one in 2016. 2014-2018: Keuchel 67-45 3.28 121 ERA+ 1.18 WHIP 4.35 FIP 3.11 K/BB 145 GS/950 IP Porcello 74-56 4.04 107 ERA+ 1.28 WHIP 3.95 FIP 4.04 K/BB 159 GS/994 IP Keuchel is almost exactly a year older than Porcello, but Porcello will be his same age when they reached free agency. I think Porcello is better, but how much better? Other recent signings: 2019 $140M/6 Patrick Corbin (2 years younger) $68M/4 Nathan Eovaldi (I feel Porcello is better than NE) $34M/2 JA Happ (6 years older) 2018 $126M/6 Darvish (Close to same age when a FA) $75M/3 Arrieta (About a year older when a FA) $57M/4 Cobb (About a year under when a FA) $38M/3 Chatwood (About 2 years younger) $28M/3 MMinor (About a year younger) Hard call.
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Here was the summary of our first 59 games based on who was more to blame or more to praise for our wins and losses- the pen or the rotation. Our pen has blown some games since then, but not enough to make it an overall negative on the season.
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An update on how our pitchers do with each catcher: Overall CERA numbers are deceptive, since our catcher pair with different starters very often. CERA 3.55 with Leon 4.41 with Vaz 6.17 with Swihart OPS Against by catcher (listed in order of most PAs per catcher) Only 20+ PA sample sizes listed. Leon .658 Porcello (258 PAs) .526 Sale (250) .901 Brewer (49) .684 Hembree (45) .619 Workman (35) 1.008 Walden (31) .172 Brasier (29) .883 ERod (29) 1.041 Smith (28) 1.010 Barnes (27) .500 Price (22) Vaz .727 ERod (285) .684 Price (225) .876 Sale (114) .910 Velazquez (112) .457 Walden (104) .773 Porcello (95) .326 Workman (91) .863 Weber (88) .561 Barnes (83) .689 Brewer (82) .847 Brasier (79) .568 Hembree (55) 1.015 Thornburg (52) .831 Eovaldi (49) .825 Smith (40) .882 Johnson (34) .850 DHern (30) 1.091 Lakins (29) .440 Shawaryn (27) .857 Taylor (21) 1.246 Poyner (21) Ina ll fairness to Vaz, he catches the scrubs way more than Leon. Swihart .975 Eovaldi (44) .423 Velazquez (26) 1.338 Porcello (26) 1.077 ERod (24) .769 Walden (23)
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It doesn't look like a strength, but it has been, so far this season. I would not bet that continues.
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On the farm... Chatham 2-4 Duran 1 for 5 2B Tendler 1-4 HR Rivera 1-3 HR Houck 6IP 3 ER 4H 4BB 3K Lowell C Marrero 3-5 (3 rbi) Northcut 2-5 (3 rbi) Cubillan 3-5 3B Arnold 1-4 HR DSL2 Gonzalez 4-6 Santana 3-4 Marcano 3-5 2B Prado 3-6 DSL1 (won 9-0) Pineda 4 IP 0 ER 1H 0BB 5K Velez 3 IP 0 ER 1 H 1BB 2K Zapete 2-3 3 runs Flores © 2-3 Romero 1-6 HR
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Mal, I hope you can stick around longer, but I understand how hard it must be. We'll miss you, for sure!
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As bad as we've looked, as many fans that have all but throw in the towel, as ugly as we have looked for long stretches this year, we are just... 4 games behind the Rays. 5.5 games behind the Yanks. Tied for the last WC slot with a team likely to have been playing over their heads- the Rangers. (We're 2.5 up on the A's and 1.5 up on the Guardians.)
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I'm not sure $60M/4 is all that much lower than what he may get on the open market, but he will probably view it as a "hometown discount." I would not be surprised, if DD has decided he's not worth that much and will offer him something like $50M/4, and if he says no, go with the QO.
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150 pitchers have 180+ IP since 2017 (5 per 30 teams). 180 IP is not a lot, but here are Porcello's more recent rankings: fWAR 2. Sale 16.5 49. Porcello 5.4 (Mid #2) 54. ERod 5.2 57. Price 5.0 xFIP 1. Sale 2.59 49.Price 3.96 53. ERod 4.06 78. Porcello 4.32 (Mid #3) ERA- 1. Sale 60 21. Price 80 50. ERod 91 76. Porcello 99 (Mid #3) WHIP 2. Sale 0.93 26. Price 1.17 71. ERod 1.30 74. Porcello 1.30 (Mid #3) All together, since 2017, these numbers show he's a better than average #3 starter. It's interesting to see he has a higher WAR than Price.
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Well, 46th places him in the 31-60 category, or right smack in the middle of #2 starters in MLB. He still is not a #3. Sale is a #1- maybe the best or 2nd best (to Scherzer) Price is a solid #1. Porcello is a solid to upper end #2. ERod is a solid #3 when using the 30 pitchers per category methodology.
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I agree, and Porcello is not in prime after this year. His last deal was perfect. All his years were in prime. I don't think he's worth $22M. I don't think anyone will offer him $20M x 4 or more years (or even 3 years). I'm thinking $15-17M x 4 is what he will likely get. I don't think I'd go any higher than $15M x 4 (and I've come up recently).
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CBS Sports suggests... Boston acquires Beal in blockbuster deal Celtics get: Bradley Beal Wizards get: Marcus Smart, Aron Baynes, Guerschon Yabusele, No. 22 pick in 2019 draft, 2020 first-round pick (via Memphis)
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Ahh, yes. I did. Thanks. Well, it will help when he comes back.
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It's been a strength not a weakness.
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We'd have never heard the end of it, if we lost the game. It makes me wonder, if the "hindsighters" now think they were good choices, of if Cora just got lucky. I do have a question: is Hembree hurt? The guy has been pretty good, but we hardly use him. He's only faced 12 batters since May 29th (19 days) In his last 8 games: 5.2 IP 0 ER 4H 0 BB 8 Ks He hasn't been used since June 10th.
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Porcello's better WAR ranking than other categories is in large part a result of IP. 2016-2019 IP 749 Scherzer 748 Verlander 698 Porcello 689 Sale 669 Kluber 663 Greinke Only 22 pitchers have 595+ IP (Less than 1 per team) Only 52 pitchers have over 500 IP (less than 2 per team) Only 93 teams have 400+ IP (about 3 per team) I'm not downplaying innings. They are a huge asset, and that's why WAR has him as more valuable than the other categories I listed.
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6/17 @ Twinnesota Mins
moonslav59 replied to Thunder's topic in Mike Grace Memorial Game Thread Forum
Huge win! Good to see Brasier getting some redemption. We got some key hits in a low hit game. That's something we haven't seen a lot of recently. Porcello was buttah! (I'd have left him in for the 8th.) -
On how Porcello ranks... From 2016-2019 (144 pitchers with 350+ IP) WAR: 21st at 10.6 (ahead of Lester, Price & Archer) WHIP: 32nd at 1.21 ERA-: 48th at 90 xFIP: 69th If you go by 1-30 are number ones, and 31-60 are number twos, then one can easily argue Porcello is a solid #2 or even a low #1. I would never call him a #3. He's way better than just about every team's #3, if not all of them.
