moonslav59

You keep acting like I don't get your point- like if I just understood what you mean, I'd have to agree. I totally understand your point, now as I did then, and it's a good one, but it's not the only factor in taking a position on whether it would be good for the Sox, if Price opted out or not, even had he had a great season before the opt out. Try to understand my point, for once. It is just as valid as yours, if not more so.

So, if he was a FA, you'd be okay with us signing him to $96M/3?

There is no reason to expect healthy seasons from Sale,Price and Eovaldi. Yes, we lost 1/5th of our rotation (Porcello), but much more than 1/5th of the IP from our top 5 SP'ers. 2019 IP as a SP'er (team; 806) 203 ERod 174 Porcello (22% of SP'er IP/ 25% of top 5 SP'er IP) 147 Sale 107 Price 54 Eovaldi (We really lost 1/4th of our rotation with Porcello leaving.) 2018 (871 total) 191 Porcello (22% of SP'er IP/ 27% of top 5 SP'er IP) 176 Price 158 Sale 123 ERod 50 Eovaldi Expecting healthy seasons from even 2 of our 3 questionable SP'ers is a stretch. Expecting repeat seasons from Workman, Taylor and Walden may be an even bigger stretch. We have no significant incoming support for 2 years in a row, and please don't count 2 weeks from Chavis in 2019 as a boost to our 2020 outlook.

I'll take the former, especially how they played in 2018. It's not even close, IMO.

That's some sick humor! Many felt our pen actually over performed their expectations in 2018 and 2019. We are mainly pinning our 2020 hopes on a return to form of Barnes, a rebound from Hembree and Brasier and continued career year-like seasons from Workman, Taylor & Walden. Or, maybe D Hern gains some control or someone like Houk pulls a Buttrey.

We are talking about why we should trade Betts and Price, and your argument was that we are "very similar" to the 2018 team and should go for one last hurrah at the expense of the extended future. We are NOT that close to the 2018 team and even got worse from the 2019 team. These are part of the reasons supporting trading some players. Of course, we should be worse in 2020 without Betts and Price (and maybe others), but the diea is to get ourselves better positioned for 2021 and beyond.

Comparing runs scored between 2018 and 2019 needs some context. The whole league went on a Home Run rampage- except us, although we did have more. HRs per team 186.2 in 2018 225.9 in 2019 (21.3% increase) (Sox went up at a 17.8% increase.) Runs per team 721.0 in 2018 782.2 in 2019 (8.5% increase) Sox Runs: 876 to 901 is a 2.3% increase. We failed to keep pace with the league increase in runs from 2018 to 2019. That's not to say our offense is bad or will be in 2020. I expect it to be top 4 or 5, as is, but we were 4th in the AL, last year and still finished way out of the race. We were first in 2018. 9 of the top 11 teams in runs scored from 2018-2019 were 2019 teams.

Missing the 2018 Kelly & Kimbrel makes the pen look much worse, as well. Missing Holt, Nunez, Kinsler, Pearce and others make our depth and flexibility look worse. Having no manager is worse than what Cora did for the 2018 team. Where are we better or even equal?

No, it was not "very" similar. We are missing 4 of our top 9 pitchers by IP from 2018 (Porcello #1, Pom #7, Kelly #8 & Kimbrell #9), and 2 others (Johnson #5 & Velazquez #6) will not make the opening day roster and may not pitch at all for the Sox, this year. Also, no Wright #13 with a 2.68 ERA in 54 IP. We are missing 7 of our top 15 batters by PAs (all over 140 PAs). We are missing the manager. Yes, we have some big stars remaining from that team, and guys like ERod, Devers and Vaz can legitimately be projected to have way better seasons than 2018, but questions and declines from 2018, based on age or health concerns, can and probably should be expected from most of the others. (listed by most 2018 PAs or IP) 1. Beni .830 OPS 2. JD 1.031 3. Betts 1.078 4. Bogey .883 (could very well do better) 5. JBJ .717 (???) 8. Moreland .758 By IP 2. Price 3.58 (176 IP in 2018) 3. Sale 2.11(158) 5. Johnson 4.17 (Not even on 40 man roster) 6. Velazquez 3.18 (Pipe dream to repeat) 10. Barnes 3.65 (62 IP) 11. Hembree 4.20 (60) 12. Eovaldi 3.33 (54 & playoff hero) 14. Workman 3.27 (41) Expected to do better than 2018 15. Brasier 1.60 (34) This is a vastly different team with way less depth and no current manager.

Yes, but an assumption does not mean I am projecting no deals or injuries. It was only an exercise in showing where we stand, right now. And, it doesn't look all that good, does it?.

Certainly not foolishness. Just because a pitcher does great one year does not mean it is expected he continue for 3 more. Both positions were based on speculation. His contract was for too many years. Hoping he did well and opted out is a valid position to hold. It's fine to disagree, but it's certainly not a foolish position based on past histories of pitchers after his age at the time of the opt out.

I never said it was the exact same, and as always, you missed my obvious point. Like Hram, had Price had a great year, it still would have (or at least might have) been good for us, if he opted out. I get your point that technically, he'd be worth $32M a year had he been great, but it's still a valid position to think he'd regress with age and to hope he opts out. The fact that he did not have a great season makes the answer speculative, but certainly his following seasons and injuries don't hurt our position or help yours.

I know what your point was, and many of us felt like even if Price had a great season before the opt out, his age and projected production would likely mean he would not earn the remainder of his salary and the money could be spent better elsewhere. It's not an absurd position, and despite the fact that he ended up not having a great season, those of us hoping he'd opt out were not wrong. BTW, I said the same about HRam. I said even if he hits .300 35 120, we should trade him. He actually had a decent second year, and we should have traded him. Of course, using your logic, I was wrong on that one,too. Let's face the only fact known only to you: you are never wrong.

Doing your best, again, I see.

I'd rather have a healthy Verdugo than any of the 3-4 guys I mentioned, but I'd be fine with getting an extra player. Verdugo + Gonsolin or Stripling = Ruiz, Gonsoli & Stripling

LOL.It was reasonable, at the time, as many of us claimed. You just can never admit having the wrong view.

Of course nobody knows but every GM in MLB would not trade any one of these guys for that comp pick, so their current value is higher.

Assuming no additions or subtractions or injuries, here's my guess on the opening day 26 man roster: 60 Day IL: Pedroia 13 Pitchers: Sale, ERod, Price, Eovaldi, Perez, Workman, Barnes, Taylor, Walden,DHern, Hembree (no options), Brice (no options) & Weber (no options) 2 Catchers: Vazquez & Plawecki 1 First base: Moreland 1 Second base: Peraza 1 Third base: Devers 1 Short Stop: Bogaerts 1 Left Field: Benintendi 1 Center Field: JBJ 1 Right Field: Betts 1 DH: Martinez 3 Utility: Chavis, Lin & Arauz (rule 5) Almost sure to get some ML time: P: Velazquez, Shawaryn, Brewer, Osich, Houck, Poyner, Johnson NP: Dalbec, Chatham, Marco

They coulda-shoulda got both.

How about option 3: Ruiz, Gonsolin and Gray? 4 Gonsolin, Stripling and Gray or Cartaya?

Yes, and the hope and idea would be to strengthen the farm to some extent by trading Betts (and maybe other 1 year players now or at the deadline), resetting and then look to try and bring Mookie back next winter and be relevant in 2021.'

Dr. Sleep.

Well, once the story broke, keeping him would have been a huge distraction, but before the mess broke, there was no better option.

Exactly.

To me, that shouldn't matter to the plan of needing to improve the farm and young core. It was the lossof Cora as our manager that tipped the balance to all but give up on 2020.