Most great pitchers lose some velocity as they age and re-adjust. Most have a period, where they struggle, usually between 30-34. Not all end up regaining some of what they lost by using their experience, improved location and just plain "smarts," but sometimes it takes time.
Yes, Sale is a fierce competitor, so that should help him find a way to get back to respectability. It may take time, and time is not on the Sox side, right now. Our window is closing quickly, and Sale may need months of even years to get back to near where he was before.
Price struggled at age 30, and many here gave up on him and called his contract an albatross.
Here's a look at the best 14 SP'ers by WAR since 2004:
Verlander: was a stud almost every year (peaked at age 28-29), except age 25 (4.84), then at age 31 he slipped to 4.54 (worst WHIP since age 25), but then quickly recovered and has had his best 2 WHIP and K/BB rates the last 2 years (2.52 and 2.98 ERAs) He's been 2.52 to .338 since his meltdown season in 2014.
Kershaw: has been a beast since age 21. From ages 23-29 his ERA was always between 1.77 and 2.53!)His WHIP was below 1.005 straight years from ages 23-29). It's hard to call 2.73 (last year) and 3.09 (this year) a meltdown, but he has show some decline (His last two WHIP'd have been his highest since age 23.) The jury is out on him getting back to peak prime, but he's still doing great.
Scherzer: Max has been a beast since age 28. He was not all that great before then. His worst ERA since age 28 was at age 29 (3.15) and 31 (2.96)- hardly setback years. He breaks the mold. His best ERA seasons?
2.30 at age 34 (2019)
2.51 at age 32
2.53 at age 33
3.79 at age 30
(He's been under 1.000 WHIP his last 5 seasons. He was at 1.175 in that age 29 season or 2014.)
Sabathia: A classic example of a thrower who had to reinvent himself into a pitcher. He was great from ages 25-31 (2.70-3.38 every year), but he struggled for 3 seasons (hopefully Sale doesn't). He was at 4.73 to 5.28 from ages 32-34, but then improved. He never came close to pre age 30 CC, but 3.91, 3.69, 3.65 and 4.03 are not bad (much better than 32-34).
Greinke: Zack has had 2 fantastic seasons (ages 25 and 31) He's been up and down at various ages.
2.16 to 3.69 ages 23-25
3.83 to 4.17 at 26-27
3.43 age 28
1.66 to 2.63 ages 29-31
4.37 at age 32 (meltdown season)
2.73-3.20 ages 33-35 regained form
Felix H: This is the guy we hope Sale does not become. He was fantastic from ages 23-28 with an ERA between 2.14 and 3.47. 5 of 6 seasons he was below 3.06! Age 29 was not bad, but it showed decline (3.53). He has declined ever since:
3.82
4.36
5.55
6.52 (His WHIP has declined in 4 of his last 5 seasons, too.)
Hamels: Cole has been pretty consistent all the way from age 2010 to today, but he did have one season out of the norm at age 33 (4.20) His WHIP spiked a bit from ages 32-34. He was 2.46 to 3.60 every year from 2010 to 2019, except
3.65 age 31
4.20 age 33
3.78 age 34
(He's at 2.98 this year at age 35.)
C Lee: retired after his age 35 season. He was so-so to bad until age 29 spike year (2.54 ERA. He then went to 3.22 at age 30 but got slightly better afterwards
3.18 at age 31
2.40 age 32
3.16b age 33
2.87 age 34
Then, 3.65 in his final season in MLB.
Halladay: HOF'er was very consistent from ages 24-34 (2.35 to 3.71 every year, except at age 27 he went 4.20). His best 4 years were all from ages 31-34, which is encouraging to Sale's case.
2.78
2.79
2.44
2.35
Then melted down quickly
4.49 age 35
6.82 age 36.
Lester: Our man Jon has had 2 "meltdown" seasons:
4.82 age 28 (the memorable 2012 collapse team)
4.33 age 33 with the Cubs
He was 3.21 to 3.47 from ages 25-27 and 3.75 at age 29 (2013)
2.46 age 30 (traded to OAK)
3.34 age 32
2.44 age 33
4.33 age 34 (His WHIP has been over 1.30 the last 3 years ages 33-35, but he has improved his ERA since 2017's 4.33 mark:
3.32
3.74
He seems to have improved after the blip.
C Sale: 1.93 to 3.41 every year until age 30: 4.27 currently. The rest is a huge Q mark.
Peavy: Jake has been all over the map, reinventing himself several times:
2.27
2.28
4.09 age 25
2.54
2.85
3.45
4.63 and 4.92 ages 29-30
3.37 age 31
4.17 age 32
Improved to 3.73 and 3.58 at ages 33-34 before finishing his career with a 5.54 ERA at age 35. Again, a pitcher showing you can improve after meltdown seasons.
Price: 2.45 to 3.49 every year after age 23, 3.99 & highest WHIP at age 30, then 3.24-3.58 the next 3 years (his last 2 years under his career WHIP)
Lackey: Injuries messed up his progression.
3.44 to 3.83 ages 26-30
4.40 age 31 w BOS
6.41 age 32 BOS (pitched while hurt, IMO)
Missed year age 33
3.52 age 34 (2013)
3.82 age 34 (traded)
2.77 age 35
3.35 age 36
4.59 age 38 (last season)
Another example of a pitcher regaining form after a meltdown in his early 30's.
Most of the best pitchers showed some late improvements after dipping in the early 30's.