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moonslav59

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Everything posted by moonslav59

  1. Single by Holt. Wall ball or HR by JBJ!
  2. Look at that swing! PH for Beni NOW!
  3. Just get to JBJ this inning, and it's ovah!
  4. Come on fat legs! Draw a walk!
  5. Anybody notice how much our pen sucks tonight? If we win here, no save awarded, and their accomplishments will be forgotten.
  6. JBJ will walk it off. Mark my words.
  7. It's one guideline to use as you wish. To me, it helps me know more about players on other teams that I don't see play very much, if at all. I see JBJ play great D, but I have no way of knowing if he is the best, top 10 or top 20. I have a pretty good idea how he stacks up against other AL East CF'ers, but even after seeing 18 games of them, I'm not that sure about my own opinion when it comes to comps... certainly no better than I do with dWAR numbers, UZR/150 and DRS. That's all I'm saying.
  8. Several catchers go 4 of 5 games or 7 of 10. I'm not sure Vaz can do it, but I don't want him tiring out and slumping at bat.
  9. Probably "phantom," right?
  10. Chris can become an ace again. Look at the list of aces below and see how many rebounded after a meltdown season. Almost all but King Felix.
  11. No. Believers in dWAR do not think it is perfect and don't "believe" every number is accurate. It is one tool among many. I don't even watch NL baseball, unless the Sox play them. I barely watch most AL teams play more than 6 games a year. What's that 10 plays hit to CF in those 6 games? AAAA players can still be great defenders but just not top 20 or 25, if the position is as loaded as CF is this year on defense.
  12. How do you know JBJ is better than most CF'ers on D. then?
  13. It's not one guy. It's trained people who are rotated and calibrated. The same guys who rate JBJ rate the other CF'ers. It's not a perfect system, but I see far too few games by other teams to know if their CF'er is better than ours or not.
  14. Make him the closer and Eovaldi the #4. (Sarcasm alert.)
  15. The only time I'd take my hat off for the Yankees is before I stuff it up their poop shoot.
  16. Still, I see the cost of obtaining decent starters is pretty low. It's a buyer's market.
  17. A's trade AA utility IF'er for Homer Bailey.
  18. He's a very head-up base runner and gets the most out of his not-so-great speed. He has the best reaction time on defense over recent years. I'm not sure if he takes the best routes on fly balls as he seemingly used to do, but he still looks plus to these eyes.
  19. The JBJ scores are puzzling, but I will say, he doesn't look as good as he was a few years ago. IMO, he is not a minus, but there are a hell of a lot of great defensive CF'ers in MLB these days, and these numbers are somewhat relative to the norm. JBJ's numbers look wrong to me, and it seems strange that over the last few years, he starts off in the negative and ends up plus. Maybe he will again this year. I've never said the numbers are perfect or 100% accurate. Park dimensions and the ability and speed of corner OF'er affect a CF'er's ratings, as well, and that doesn't seem fair, but these guys watch every play of every game. They are calibrated, cross-compared and rotated, so one would think that over a large enough sample size, it would be fairly accurate. OF'er sample sizes can be pretty small, and maybe a 2-3 year sample size is the best way to use UZR/150 on them.
  20. He has hit 97 in several games, but his overall velocity is down: 2019: Mostly been around 94. https://www.fangraphs.com/graphs.aspx?playerid=10603&position=P&pitchgraphs=true&statArr=&legend=1&split=base&time=daily&start=2019&end=2019&rtype=mult&gt1=15&dStatArray=FA&ymin=&ymax= 2018: Mostly 96-97 Hitting 100 several games) until he came back from the DL https://www.fangraphs.com/graphs.aspx?playerid=10603&position=P&pitchgraphs=true&statArr=&legend=1&split=base&time=daily&start=2018&end=2018&rtype=mult&gt1=15&dStatArray=FA&ymin=&ymax= 2017: Mostly around 95 but dipped to 93-94 mid season https://www.fangraphs.com/graphs.aspx?playerid=10603&position=P&pitchgraphs=true&statArr=&legend=1&split=base&time=daily&start=2017&end=2017&rtype=mult&gt1=15&dStatArray=FA&ymin=&ymax=
  21. Most great pitchers lose some velocity as they age and re-adjust. Most have a period, where they struggle, usually between 30-34. Not all end up regaining some of what they lost by using their experience, improved location and just plain "smarts," but sometimes it takes time. Yes, Sale is a fierce competitor, so that should help him find a way to get back to respectability. It may take time, and time is not on the Sox side, right now. Our window is closing quickly, and Sale may need months of even years to get back to near where he was before. Price struggled at age 30, and many here gave up on him and called his contract an albatross. Here's a look at the best 14 SP'ers by WAR since 2004: Verlander: was a stud almost every year (peaked at age 28-29), except age 25 (4.84), then at age 31 he slipped to 4.54 (worst WHIP since age 25), but then quickly recovered and has had his best 2 WHIP and K/BB rates the last 2 years (2.52 and 2.98 ERAs) He's been 2.52 to .338 since his meltdown season in 2014. Kershaw: has been a beast since age 21. From ages 23-29 his ERA was always between 1.77 and 2.53!)His WHIP was below 1.005 straight years from ages 23-29). It's hard to call 2.73 (last year) and 3.09 (this year) a meltdown, but he has show some decline (His last two WHIP'd have been his highest since age 23.) The jury is out on him getting back to peak prime, but he's still doing great. Scherzer: Max has been a beast since age 28. He was not all that great before then. His worst ERA since age 28 was at age 29 (3.15) and 31 (2.96)- hardly setback years. He breaks the mold. His best ERA seasons? 2.30 at age 34 (2019) 2.51 at age 32 2.53 at age 33 3.79 at age 30 (He's been under 1.000 WHIP his last 5 seasons. He was at 1.175 in that age 29 season or 2014.) Sabathia: A classic example of a thrower who had to reinvent himself into a pitcher. He was great from ages 25-31 (2.70-3.38 every year), but he struggled for 3 seasons (hopefully Sale doesn't). He was at 4.73 to 5.28 from ages 32-34, but then improved. He never came close to pre age 30 CC, but 3.91, 3.69, 3.65 and 4.03 are not bad (much better than 32-34). Greinke: Zack has had 2 fantastic seasons (ages 25 and 31) He's been up and down at various ages. 2.16 to 3.69 ages 23-25 3.83 to 4.17 at 26-27 3.43 age 28 1.66 to 2.63 ages 29-31 4.37 at age 32 (meltdown season) 2.73-3.20 ages 33-35 regained form Felix H: This is the guy we hope Sale does not become. He was fantastic from ages 23-28 with an ERA between 2.14 and 3.47. 5 of 6 seasons he was below 3.06! Age 29 was not bad, but it showed decline (3.53). He has declined ever since: 3.82 4.36 5.55 6.52 (His WHIP has declined in 4 of his last 5 seasons, too.) Hamels: Cole has been pretty consistent all the way from age 2010 to today, but he did have one season out of the norm at age 33 (4.20) His WHIP spiked a bit from ages 32-34. He was 2.46 to 3.60 every year from 2010 to 2019, except 3.65 age 31 4.20 age 33 3.78 age 34 (He's at 2.98 this year at age 35.) C Lee: retired after his age 35 season. He was so-so to bad until age 29 spike year (2.54 ERA. He then went to 3.22 at age 30 but got slightly better afterwards 3.18 at age 31 2.40 age 32 3.16b age 33 2.87 age 34 Then, 3.65 in his final season in MLB. Halladay: HOF'er was very consistent from ages 24-34 (2.35 to 3.71 every year, except at age 27 he went 4.20). His best 4 years were all from ages 31-34, which is encouraging to Sale's case. 2.78 2.79 2.44 2.35 Then melted down quickly 4.49 age 35 6.82 age 36. Lester: Our man Jon has had 2 "meltdown" seasons: 4.82 age 28 (the memorable 2012 collapse team) 4.33 age 33 with the Cubs He was 3.21 to 3.47 from ages 25-27 and 3.75 at age 29 (2013) 2.46 age 30 (traded to OAK) 3.34 age 32 2.44 age 33 4.33 age 34 (His WHIP has been over 1.30 the last 3 years ages 33-35, but he has improved his ERA since 2017's 4.33 mark: 3.32 3.74 He seems to have improved after the blip. C Sale: 1.93 to 3.41 every year until age 30: 4.27 currently. The rest is a huge Q mark. Peavy: Jake has been all over the map, reinventing himself several times: 2.27 2.28 4.09 age 25 2.54 2.85 3.45 4.63 and 4.92 ages 29-30 3.37 age 31 4.17 age 32 Improved to 3.73 and 3.58 at ages 33-34 before finishing his career with a 5.54 ERA at age 35. Again, a pitcher showing you can improve after meltdown seasons. Price: 2.45 to 3.49 every year after age 23, 3.99 & highest WHIP at age 30, then 3.24-3.58 the next 3 years (his last 2 years under his career WHIP) Lackey: Injuries messed up his progression. 3.44 to 3.83 ages 26-30 4.40 age 31 w BOS 6.41 age 32 BOS (pitched while hurt, IMO) Missed year age 33 3.52 age 34 (2013) 3.82 age 34 (traded) 2.77 age 35 3.35 age 36 4.59 age 38 (last season) Another example of a pitcher regaining form after a meltdown in his early 30's. Most of the best pitchers showed some late improvements after dipping in the early 30's.
  22. The pen has sucked. It is not spin to say the rotation has sucked, too. The pen actually did better than the rotation for the first 2-3 months and overall has helped us win more games than the starters have and lose less games than the starters have. The fact is, our pen and rotation have both sucked. Yes, the pen is now just 7th in most IP'd in the AL, so that cannot be used as an excuse, but coming in after your starter has let up 5 runs (5 times each by Sale, Porcello and ERod) does not make it easy on them. We pretty much all agree, we need a RP'er. Whether Eovaldi proves to be enough is open for debate, but I, for one, hope we trade for a decent closer ASAP and let Eovaldi be gravy or not.
  23. Human errors by umps does not have to be part of the game, just because it has been for over a century. To me, it's not about making the game more or less fun, it's about getting the calls right and allowing players to just play the game and not have to worry about who is calling the pitches that night or if they have to swing at a ball, because the ump has been calling it a strike all night or all his career. It's not fun for me to watch us get hosed by bad strike calls, and it give me no pleasure to watch us get helped by bad calls either. I guess some like complaining, but they can always complain about the robots, too, or find somethging else to bitch about, like WTF Cora or DD or.... I'm not a Manfred flunky. If it's about fun, then you should be all for the juiced ball, since that's what most fans think is fun-- not me.
  24. Here are the rankings of our players by fangraghs: Catcher (45 with 250+ innings) 2. Vaz (15.3) 9th in DRS +4 20. Leon (4.1) 21st in DRS +2 UZR/150 & DRS 1B (32 with 300+ innings) 22. Chavis -1.6 (10th in DRS +1) 26. Moreland -4.0 (18th at +0) 2B (43 with 200+ innings) 5. Holt +8.5 (26th in DRS+0) 17. Chavis +2.3 (26th at 0) SS (31 with 300+ innings) 17. Bogey -0.5 (30th in DRS -14) 3B (34 with 300+) 20. Devers +1.6 (13th DRS +1) LF (29 with 300+) 15. Fat Legs -0.2 (23rd at -3) CF (31 with 300+) 26. JBJ -5.5 (25th at -3) RF (30 with 300+ 6. Betts +11.2 (3rd DRS +9)
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