moonslav59

Sox OPS last 28 days (not counting today): 1.213 Devers 1.143 Bogaerts 1.008 Vazquez .985 Hernandez .967 Holt .922 Betts .812 JBJ .807 Chavis .793 Martinez .741 Benintendi .368 Leon ERA (listed in order of most IP) 3.30 ERod 2.45 Price 7.59 Sale 10.50 Porcello 2.19 Taylor 6.52 Brasier 1.93 Workman 4.82 Brewer 9.39 Barnes 6.14 Velazquez 12.15 Walden 8.53 Wright 9.00 Cashner

Starting 5-1 or 6-0 would help greatly.

Many pitcher lose Velocity and never are the same, but when looking at the best pitchers of the last 15 years, almost all of them, except Felix Hernandez, went through a rough patch or two near age 30 and were able to come back with some decent to excellent seasons afterwards. I've heard word that breaking balls are not breaking as much due to the new balls. That hurts guys trying to reinvent themselves as more than just a "thrower" (not that Sale was ever just a thrower). Sale is a fierce sompetitor, and I'm betting on him finding a way to get back to a top 10 SP'er. To me, it's more about when not if, and today was a great sign thast the time may be very near.

I've said a number of times, I'm fine with us re-signing Holt, but the fact is our budget is and will be extremely tight the next few years. It is my opinion that we will reset the tax this winter or next. A guy like Holt seems to fit the plan as a low cost utility player or even a starter. That being said, we have greater needs, and Holt misses too much time and is up and down in production from year to year. It wouldn't kill me to see him go, but I'd love to bring him back at a reasonable cost. We are all set at SS and 3B. We have a need at 2B and 1B, but I don't waant Holt at 1B, unless it's an emergency. We could go with Chavis at 1B and Holt at 2B with Marco and Lin in reserve. I'm fine with that, but I'd also be fine with finding a cheap 1B and using Chavis at 2B, or giving Dalbec, Ockimey and Travis a shot at 1B and using every spare dollar to fill the many other holes we will have this winter.

Next Games with Probable SP"er: @BAL Price @BAL Porcello @BAL Cashner @TBR ERod (Our best 3 vs the Rays) @TBR Sale @TBR Price NYY Porcello NYY Cashner NYY ERod NYY Sale (Day Off) TBR (Trade deadline before next game.) Price +1 day rest TBR Porcello +1 TBR ERod (2 of best 3 SP'ers vs Rays) @NYY Cashner +2 @NYY @NYY Sale +1, Velazquez or Johnson @NYY Price

Next games: @BAL @BAL @BAL @TBR @TBR @TBR NYY NYY NYY NYY (Day Off) TBR (Trade deadline before next game.) TBR TBR @NYY @NYY @NYY @NYY

I don't disagree, but we have been 6-13 in Sale's first 19 starts. If we can go 9-4 in his next 13, and everyone else repeats what they have done, we'll be 5 games better and in the WC.

I mean 12 K and 5 GB outs Sale out of 18 outs. I don't care about 93-94 vs 96-98 as long as he can reinvent himself into the guy we saw today on a consistent basis.

With Nunez and Holt being free agents, I'd keep Marco as our utility IF'er with Lin & Chatham as AAA depth. We can sign a decent 1Bman for cheap, but for some reason DD keeps paying $3-4M players like Moreland & Pearce $6M a year. I'd go with Chavis at 2B and a scrub at 1B and allow Dalbec, Ockimey and Travis to win the job away from the scrub. I wouldn't spend a penny more than that at 1B and 2B next year. I might even not sign the scrub and just let the young guys fight for the 2 jobs. We need to reset the tax at some point, so 1B and 2B are probably the two most likely job openingls that can be filled from within the system.

How'd it work out?

Yanks and Ray play a double header. We are going to gain on one or both of them, today! Time to start a long winning streak, or a 9 out of 10 type run.

Sale becoming Sale again could be all we need.

Just got caught up live... WOW! Good on Sale! By my count, out of his first 15 outs, 12 were Ks, 2 were ground balls and 1 was a line out. Even one of his 2 hits allowed was a grounder. 3 ground outs in the 6th inning. 6 IP 12 Ks 5 GB outs 1 Line Out Let's all hope we've finally gotten back the real... Chris Freakin' Sale!

I think you meant Sale and Porcello not Price. The plan, all along, was that we'd hit a wall at some point, both with the budget and with the lack of top prospects in the system. It was "win now," but the good part was that the "now" was a 4-5 year window and not a 1-2 year stretch most teams plan for.

Pythagorean Records: 52-44 BOS 51-43 CLE

Many of the best pitchers in MLB struggled at some point between 29-31 years old and then regained much of what they lost. Here's a post from earlier... Most great pitchers lose some velocity as they age and re-adjust. Most have a period, where they struggle, usually between 30-34. Not all end up regaining some of what they lost by using their experience, improved location and just plain "smarts," but sometimes it takes time. Yes, Sale is a fierce competitor, so that should help him find a way to get back to respectability. It may take time, and time is not on the Sox side, right now. Our window is closing quickly, and Sale may need months of even years to get back to near where he was before. Price struggled at age 30, and many here gave up on him and called his contract an albatross. Here's a look at the best 14 SP'ers by WAR since 2004: Verlander: was a stud almost every year (peaked at age 28-29), except age 25 (4.84), then at age 31 he slipped to 4.54 (worst WHIP since age 25), but then quickly recovered and has had his best 2 WHIP and K/BB rates the last 2 years (2.52 and 2.98 ERAs) He's been 2.52 to .338 since his meltdown season in 2014. Kershaw: has been a beast since age 21. From ages 23-29 his ERA was always between 1.77 and 2.53!)His WHIP was below 1.005 straight years from ages 23-29). It's hard to call 2.73 (last year) and 3.09 (this year) a meltdown, but he has show some decline (His last two WHIP'd have been his highest since age 23.) The jury is out on him getting back to peak prime, but he's still doing great. Scherzer: Max has been a beast since age 28. He was not all that great before then. His worst ERA since age 28 was at age 29 (3.15) and 31 (2.96)- hardly setback years. He breaks the mold. His best ERA seasons? 2.30 at age 34 (2019) 2.51 at age 32 2.53 at age 33 3.79 at age 30 (He's been under 1.000 WHIP his last 5 seasons. He was at 1.175 in that age 29 season or 2014.) Sabathia: A classic example of a thrower who had to reinvent himself into a pitcher. He was great from ages 25-31 (2.70-3.38 every year), but he struggled for 3 seasons (hopefully Sale doesn't). He was at 4.73 to 5.28 from ages 32-34, but then improved. He never came close to pre age 30 CC, but 3.91, 3.69, 3.65 and 4.03 are not bad (much better than 32-34). Greinke: Zack has had 2 fantastic seasons (ages 25 and 31) He's been up and down at various ages. 2.16 to 3.69 ages 23-25 3.83 to 4.17 at 26-27 3.43 age 28 1.66 to 2.63 ages 29-31 4.37 at age 32 (meltdown season) 2.73-3.20 ages 33-35 regained form Felix H: This is the guy we hope Sale does not become. He was fantastic from ages 23-28 with an ERA between 2.14 and 3.47. 5 of 6 seasons he was below 3.06! Age 29 was not bad, but it showed decline (3.53). He has declined ever since: 3.82 4.36 5.55 6.52 (His WHIP has declined in 4 of his last 5 seasons, too.) Hamels: Cole has been pretty consistent all the way from age 2010 to today, but he did have one season out of the norm at age 33 (4.20) His WHIP spiked a bit from ages 32-34. He was 2.46 to 3.60 every year from 2010 to 2019, except 3.65 age 31 4.20 age 33 3.78 age 34 (He's at 2.98 this year at age 35.) C Lee: retired after his age 35 season. He was so-so to bad until age 29 spike year (2.54 ERA. He then went to 3.22 at age 30 but got slightly better afterwards 3.18 at age 31 2.40 age 32 3.16b age 33 2.87 age 34 Then, 3.65 in his final season in MLB. Halladay: HOF'er was very consistent from ages 24-34 (2.35 to 3.71 every year, except at age 27 he went 4.20). His best 4 years were all from ages 31-34, which is encouraging to Sale's case. 2.78 2.79 2.44 2.35 Then melted down quickly 4.49 age 35 6.82 age 36. Lester: Our man Jon has had 2 "meltdown" seasons: 4.82 age 28 (the memorable 2012 collapse team) 4.33 age 33 with the Cubs He was 3.21 to 3.47 from ages 25-27 and 3.75 at age 29 (2013) 2.46 age 30 (traded to OAK) 3.34 age 32 2.44 age 33 4.33 age 34 (His WHIP has been over 1.30 the last 3 years ages 33-35, but he has improved his ERA since 2017's 4.33 mark: 3.32 3.74 He seems to have improved after the blip. C Sale: 1.93 to 3.41 every year until age 30: 4.27 currently. The rest is a huge Q mark. Peavy: Jake has been all over the map, reinventing himself several times: 2.27 2.28 4.09 age 25 2.54 2.85 3.45 4.63 and 4.92 ages 29-30 3.37 age 31 4.17 age 32 Improved to 3.73 and 3.58 at ages 33-34 before finishing his career with a 5.54 ERA at age 35. Again, a pitcher showing you can improve after meltdown seasons. Price: 2.45 to 3.49 every year after age 23, 3.99 & highest WHIP at age 30, then 3.24-3.58 the next 3 years (his last 2 years under his career WHIP) Lackey: Injuries messed up his progression. 3.44 to 3.83 ages 26-30 4.40 age 31 w BOS 6.41 age 32 BOS (pitched while hurt, IMO) Missed year age 33 3.52 age 34 (2013) 3.82 age 34 (traded) 2.77 age 35 3.35 age 36 4.59 age 38 (last season) Another example of a pitcher regaining form after a meltdown in his early 30's. Most of the best pitchers showed some late improvements after dipping in the early 30's.

The plan included being maxed out on the budget and emptied of farm hands available by 2019. Yes, I think we thought we'd still be competitive, but we knew we did not have enough money to "keep getting better". We didn't even stay even. We brought back Eovaldi and Pearce but lost Kimbrel and Kelly. The "plan" forced us into having to choose whicj holes to fill and which holes to roll the dice with.

I don't judge player value based on just their previous 90 game sample size. We have our weak areas, but so do those teams. Think long and hard about what I am about to say: Suppose you were a fan of team A or B and were 1-2 games up on the last WC slot and had these holes, would you still like our chances better than the defending champs 1-2 games behind you? Team A (Oakland) #4 in PAs .680 OPS (Profar at 2B) #5 in PAs .696 OPS (Piscotty in RF and now on IL) #6 in PAs .718 OPS (K Davis at DH) #7 in PAs .752 (Grossman in LF) Closer: 4.54 ERA/1.563 WHIP (worse than our closers) 3 key set-up men (all with over 42 IP): Soria (4.67), Trivino (4.29) and Brooks (5.01)Others with 22+ IP: Wendelkin 4.56, Estrada 6.85 & Anderson 6.04. Their rotation is doing very well, but can you honestly say you think these starters are better than ours? Mike Fiers, Brett Anderson, Frankie Montas, Chris Bassit & Daniel Mengden Team B (CLE) Last year's MVP candidate, Jose Ramirez, is second in PAs on the team and has a .684 OPS. #4 in PAs .707 J Bauers #5 in PAs .666 J Kipnis #5 in PAs .619 L Martin Kluber, Carrasco and JRodrigues are on the IL. Yes, Bauer, Bieber and Clevinger are doing very well, but I still like our top 3 in the playoffs over theirs. Other SP'ers: Plesac 3.56 & Plutko 5.40 Their pen was not supposed to be all that good, but they have over-performed,to date. Brad Hand 25 svs (2.29) and the rest are almost all under 4.00. I can imagine this board would be crying about us having no chance of winning with 2 black holes in the line-up. These teams have 3-4 black holes. What sucks about our team, on paper, is our budget, our budget future and our empty farm. This is that same team that won 118 games minus a Joe Kelly most felt should not have even been on the playoff rosters and the ticking time bomb Kimbrel. On paper, this team was better than those ahead of us now, when the year started. I still think we are better, as lomng as a few players start playing to their skill level, and SOON!

You were definitely the leader in this position from day one, and it is certainly true that our pen was and still is weak. Word was out that we were shopping for Robertson. Signing him would have led to the same fate as now. Cody Allen was mentioned by several posters, including myself, as a cheaper option. That would have been a huge mistake. Some of us felt that Ottavino was the best choice of the higher bracket FA signings, and having him now would certainly be a big plus over Eovaldi, but look at how crappy our rotation has been. Clearly our rotation would have been a big area of need right now had we signed Ottavino instead of Eovaldi. Had we signed Ottavino & Morton, we'd be over the max line. Had we done that and Chavis flopped, we'd have Holt at 1B everyday and Nunez at 2B everyday. In hindsight we should have signed one of Morton or Ottavino, but we might not have really been that much better off had a couple other factors not worked. I'm not defending DD. He got us to where we are today, but he also got us to where we were last year, and that was the plan all along. Go for broke and deal with the fall-out later.

I thought the Sale contract was a great deal for the Sox, despite signs of decline. Most of the great pitchers have a little meltdown between 29-31 and then have some very good years for 2-4 years afterwards. I still expect Sale will earn his keep. I could be wrong: he could become the next King Felix, but I doubt it. I know many said it was a mistake before this year started, and right now, you look right, but his contract has just begun. Almost everyone, but me, loved the Moreland signing and re-signing. His fragility led to the trade and re-signing or Pearce. That was a mistake that led to the second mistake (needing to sign Pearce as insurance). The Nunez re-signing was a mistake. He was clearly physically breaking down. His injuries and decline led us to trade Buttrey for Kinsler. Eovaldi's playoff heroics were a big part of his re-signing, but those moments rallied the team, and losing his clubhouse presence would have been the first excuse used had we sucked this year with some other starter signed instead of him. It was an overpay, but we did need a solid SP'er, and we were not the only ones trying to sign him. The astute talent seeker, Astros, wanted him badly. Yes, it was a mistake (at least for 2019). As we all know, free agent signings are more busts or negative than gains. Expecting DD to ace every signing is expecting too much. We do NOT have an unlimited budget, despite what many people seem to think. DD spent to the limit to get us the ring in 2018. To "continue improving every year" without a farm left us to the point where we had about 5-6 holes and precious few dollars to fill them all. Had we known Chavis would do what he's done, maybe we wouldn't have signed Pearce, but then again, maybe we'd have spent that money on Cody Allen or David Robertson or one of several other RP'er FA flops. In hindsight, maybe we sign Ottavino or Morton and we'd be better off, now, but it is the previous high spending and emptying the farm that got us to last winter's pickle, and DD had to be perfect with his signings to keep us as a top contender.

Pearce had some very good regular season numbers over the prior 2-3 regular seasons. I don't think the post season numbers were the only reason DD decided to sign him.

Look what happened to Tommy Harper and the Sox as late as the 70's. It was a sad stain on our team's history.

RIP Pumpsie Green.

3 games before he goes on the IL again.

Cots has us at spending $236M this season, and here we are. Yes, Eovaldi, Moreland and other have been hurt, but look at the other teams: NYY have had tons of injuries and are spending more than $30M less than us. TBR has a budget almost 1/4th ours. CLE has a budget just over half of ours, lost Brantley and others to free agency and Kluber & Carrasco to injuries. Oak has a budget of about 40% of ours. No excuses. I still think we have a better team, on paper, than most of these teams, but we are where we are. We have 2 weeks to turn things around, of I'll be leading the big sell parade bandwagon.