moonslav59

I'm fine with replacing JBJ with an equal glove and a worse bat as a bridge to the time we can go for a ring, then we may need better offense, or we may not. I'd trade JD, but with the idea that we will do what it takes to keep Betts. If we lose both, we better have a GM that will spend their money wisely and not on the next Pablo, HRam or Eovaldi.

Let's say we trade JBJ for a low cost, decent RP'er. We trade JD + $6M (saving $16M) for a low cost but good SP'er. If my numbers are right, we'd have about $16-20M to spend on a defensive CF'er and a good pen arm and Sp'er depth. No doubt, losing JBJ and JD will hurt our chances at competing in 2020, but depending on who we get back and who we sign, we may be just as good on paper, but we'd be better placed going forward, financially and in terms of players under team control for 2021 and beyond. No JD, JBJ, Wright or Hembree. I'll assume Leon comes back at $1M. Here could be the 2020 roster: SP: Sale, ERod, Price, Eovaldi, ____ (JD trade), DHern RP: ___ (FA), Workman, Barnes, Taylor, ___ (JBJ trade), Walden, ___(FA) C: Vaz & Leon 1B: Dalbec & Travis/Ockimey 2B: Chavis & Marco/Lin/Chatham 3B: Devers SS: Bogey LF: Beni CF: ____(FA) RF: Betts DH: Chavis/Ockimey

We will have a 26 man roster, next year, so maybe it's not such a big deal anymore.

The hard part is getting 6 innings every start. We can probably get a 5.50 ERA from a mixture of DHern, Johnson, Velazquez, Shawaryn, Wright and Houck but not 6 IP/GS. If we knew Sale, Price and ERod could go 6 each start, we wouldn't need 6 from the 4-5 slots, but we can't count on 6 from anybody but maybe ERod in 2020.

My guess is he's over-using depressants.

I can see us letting JBJ go, being $1M under the tax line, and if we are in it at the trade deadline, then deciding to go for one more ring and reset after 2020.

2 years in a row and being his 3rd (but not last) arb usually pays out, but if I'm high, then we have more wiggle room than I thought.

100% JBJ is my favorite Sox player, but I think he should be traded.

I could see us trading Betts, if he turns down a big extension offer, but I hope we go hard after him as a FA after 2020 and the reset. I'd rather see us trade JD, who is less likely part of our plans beyond 2020 (opt out is more likely). I know we won't get nearly as much as we would for Betts, and if we end up losing Betts anyway, then we're down 2 big bats and one big glove. However, it's not like we won't use the money from JD and Betts to get several other good players. It's a tough call. I can't see trading Sale, Price or Eovaldi, unless their stock rises with a healthy start to the 2020 season. The Pedey retirement idea is just a dream- a very unlikely one. We're not trading Bogey. Beni might bring back a nice haul, but with JBJ likely gone and no OF prospects in sight, I can't see that happening. (I wouldn't be against trading Beni, if the return haul was good enough, and we saved some money to spend elsewhere.)

Workman made $1.1M this year. I think that is part of the calculation. He just had a good year, but it's his only good year. Being his last arb year does usually add to the cost, so you might be right. Betts slipped a little, this year, so I'm not sure he gets the $28M I projected earlier this year. First arb years, like Beni's, are hard to project. I think that if Hembree is gone, as you project, we can be under the line by $1M to $6M. If the number is $6M, we can sign a very cheap defensive CF'er and pen arm. Assuming almost perfect health, we could have a competitive team next year, but that's hoping for a lot. I'm not expecting ring competitiveness in 2020, but it could still be a fun year to watch. With expectations much lower, sometimes the same season (like 2019 vs 2020) can be more enjoyable to watch.

Cots has us $56M under the line before arbs. Lets assume no JBJ, Wright or Leon and go a little higher on my arb estimates: $$$ 28 Betts (3rd of 3 arbs) 12 ERod (3rd of 4) 9 Beni (1 of 3) 4 Barnes (2 of 3) 4 Workman (3 of 3) 2 Hembree (2 of 3) That's $58M and puts us $2M over the line. No Hembree would put us right at the line- worst case.

Not by my calculations. I have us at about $4-6M under, if we lose JBJ's $10M estimated arb cost. (Leon or another catcher at min wage. No Wright.) Tax Dollars (*arb estimate) 31 Price 27* Betts 26 Sale 22 JD 20 Bogey 17 Eovaldi 14 Pedey 11* ERod 10* JBJ 7* Beni 3* Barnes 4 Vaz 3* Workman 2* Hembree 2* Leon 1* Wright Nobody else over $1M $2M for the rest of the 40 man roster Total $187M without JBJ, Wright & Leon +$15M Player benefits $202M Total $6M to spend on FAs. If my arb numbers are low, maybe we trade Hembree. I also think we may look to trade JD or Eovaldi, but that would radically change the talent level of the team, assuming both are healthy all 2020.

We could have the same team- maybe healthier, but without just JBJ. We'd have enough money to spend on a cheap defensive only CF'er and a pen arm.

Someday, we may learn the specifics. I wonder, if that was when the contract issue arose.

I'm wrong too often to gloat when I'm right. I do think JBJ or JD will be traded. That's my next call. I was gald to hear the reset does not mean Betts is traded, and they actually said theyw ere going to try and extend him this winter.

MLBTR reports we are going to reset the tax, next year. Bye-bye Rick. Bye-bye JBJ or maybe JD.

Good bye JBJ. Sox will get under the luxury tax next year. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/09/red-sox-aim-goal-to-get-under-luxury-line-in-2020-salary-payroll-rumors.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=facebook

I disagree. 1) We probably will not be in the race, so we won't be thinking one guy might have made a difference. 2) I won't miss 12 out of 32 starts allowing 5 or more runs and a 5.50 ERA. 3) I will miss the IP'd and the strain he takes off the pen.

Here's an interesting view of our ring years: 2003: 29 Pedro 33 Lowe 33 Wake 30 Burkett 14 Fossom 23 others (10 Suppan 13 others) 2004: 33 Pedro 32 Schilling 33 Lowe 30 Wake 29 Arroyo 5 others 2005: 11 Schilling 30 Wells 32 Clement 33 Wake 32 Arroyo 35 others (16 Wade Miller) 2006: 33 Beckett 31 Schilling 8 Wells 12 Clement 23 Wake 63 others (15 Lester, 10 Snyder) 2007: 30 Beckett 24 Schilling 32 Dice-K 31 Wake 23 Tavarez 22 others (11 Lester) 2008: 27 Beckett 29 Dice-K 30 Wake 33 Lester 15 Buchholz 28 others (9 Masterson, 8 Byrd, 7 Colon) 2009: 32 Beckett 32 Lester 12 Dice-K 21 Wake 16 Buchholz 49 others (24 Penny, 8 Smoltz, 6 Masterson, 6 Byrd) 2010: 21 Beckett 32 Lester 33 Lackey 25 Dice-K 28 Buchholz 23 others (19 Wake) 2011: 30 Beckett 30 Lester 28 Lackey 7 Dice-K 14 Buchholz 50 others (23 Wake, 12 A Miller, 8 Bedard) 2012: 21 Beckett 33 Lester 0 Lackey 29 Buchholz 10 Bard 69 others (29 Doubront, 18 Cook, 11 Dice-K, 9 Morales) 2013: 33 Lester 29 Lackey 16 Buchholz 29 Dempster 27 Doubront 28 others (10 Peavy, 7 Webster, 6 Aceves) 2014: (traded 4/5ths of rotation) 21 Lester 21 Lackey 20 Peavy 28 Buchholz 10 Doubront 68 others (18 DLR, 15 Workman, 11 Webster, 10 Kell7, 7 Ranaudo) 2015: 28 Porcello 32 Miley 18 Buchholz 25 Kelly 9 Masterson 59 others (21 ERod, 11 Owens, 9 Wright, 4 Hill) 2016: 35 Price 33 Porcello 21 Buchholz 20 ERod 6 Kelly 53 others (24 Wright, 13 Pom) 2017: 32 Sale 11 Price 33 Porcello 32 Pomeranz 24 ERod 41 others (15 Fister, 5 Johnson, 5 Wright) 2018: 27 Sale 30 Price 33 Porcello 11 Pomeranz 23 ERod 38 others (13 Johnson, 11 Eovaldi, 8 Velazquez) 2019: 25 Sale 22 Price 32 Porcello 33 ERod 11 Eovaldi 36 others (so far)- 8 Velazquez, 7 Johnson, 6 Cashner Fewest "others": 5 2004 22 2007 23 2003 23 2010 28 2013 28 2008 35 2005 36+ 2019 38 2018 41 2017 49 2009 50 2011 53 2016 59 2015 63 2014 63 2006 69 2012

I don't disagree, but I see it this way: If we want to win it all in 2020, assuming we go over the tax line, we need better than a 4/5. Sale, Price and Eovaldi are all big health questions. We'd need a 2/3, at worst plus pen arms. If we plan on rebuilding and not going over the tax line, Porcello makes little sense.

Fact is, DD has drafted less pitching with his first picks (since 2007): Theo's last 5 years 2007:1st pick LHP (Hagadone) 4th (Huntzinger) 5th (Province) 2008: 1st RHP (Kelly) 2nd (B Price) 4th (Fife) 5th (Weiland) 2009: 2nd (Wilson)6th (Kline) 2010: 3rd (Ranaudo) 4th (Workman) 2011: 1st (Barnes) 3rd (Owens) Ben 2012: 2nd (Johnson) 3rd (Light) 4th (Callahan) 5th (Maddox) 6th (Buttrey) (next 3 RHPs) 2013: 1st (T Ball) 2nd (Stanki) 4th (M Smith) 5th (Littrell) 2014: 2nd (Kopech) 4th (Cosart) 5th (McAvoy) 2015: 5th (Lakins) 6th (B Taylor) 7th (L Allen) Not a bad pitcher draft for low picks. DD 2016: 1st (Groome) 3rd (Anderson) 5th (Shawaryn) 6th (Nogosek) 2017: 1st (Houck) 4th (Thompson) 5th (Scherff) 6th (Schellenger) 2018: 3rd (Feltman) 5th (T Ward) 2019: 3rd (Zeferjahn) 4th (Song) Since 2007, we've drafted pitchers more than non pitchers (only Theo's last 4 years). All 4 year sample sizes: Top 2 Picks: DD 2 out of 8 Ben 4 out of 8 Theo 4 out of 8 Total: 10 out of 24 (6 out of last 16) Top 6 Picks: DD 12 out of 24 Ben 14 out of 24 Theo 10 out of 24 Total: 36 out of 72 (26 out of last 48)

1) I doubt he takes a significant discount to stay here. 2) We don't need a 4.75 to 5.50 SP'er, despite all the IP. 3) He's past prime, now. 4) Even at a discounted rate, his contract would likely put us over the tax limit by itself (assuming we keep everyone else).

I felt the same way about 2017. Seemed like too many players had down years all at the same time. Well, with 2017 and 2019 both seeming "fluky," maybe it was 2018 that was the outlier. Our offense did very well in 2018 and 2019, so it's mostly about the pitching. ERod, Workman, Taylor and Walden did better than expected. The other 19 used did worse.

I don't think 35 starts from outside your top 5 starters is all that out of the norm. Plus, we porbably could have started Eovaldi a few more games, and we may have even started Price and Sale more had we been in the playoff hunt. I just don't see injuries as a major excuse for us doing so much worse than last year. Starting Pitchers all did worse, except ERod. Pen blew too many saves. Offense bunched too many runs when not needed. Defense, despite Devers doing much better, did worse overall. Base-running looked more like 2017 not 2018. GM, managing and coaching made more mistakes.

Personally, I think we need to shake up our whole philosophy on pitching- from drafting, developing, coaching, evaluating, attending to their physical needs and more. That probably means bringing in an outsider with a known history of success with pitchers.