moonslav59

I predict the Rays will be up 4 in the 6th inning.

Nah, that's be like adding Valentine.

That's how I felt when we hired Dan Duquette.

I'm not anti Porcello. I loved the trade for him. I loved the extension. I still think he was worth the contract, barely, but what I loved most about the contract was that all the years were before age 30-31. His next deal is different, and he has been trending perfectly to the age curve. ERA- Recent Odd Years 118> 102> 104 Recent Even Years 89>71>96 His best career even year: 2016 (71) His best career odd year: 2017 (102) 2018 (96) was worse than 2014 (89) 2019 (114) was his worst since 2011 (114)/2010 (117) Now, if you follow the even-odd trends (not my belief) with the expected age curve decline, maybe he can give: 2020: 100-106 #3-4 2021: 118-124 #5 A 1 year deal might make sense- not two.

I'd be thrilled to be wrong on this and will call you a genius, if we are even top 12 next fall/winter. I'd be thrilled to be 15th-18th. Look, it's possible our scouting is just as good as way back, and it's just the hardening system that has changed. I've been making the point about how hard it is for winning AND high spending teams to build or keep up a top farm system, so maybe it's harder than even I thought. Seeing the Dodgers, Braves, Rays and others draft low and still build strong farms makes me think we've slipped. It's not just about all the prospects DD traded- most of them would be graduated by now, so our farm would not be way better right now, had we not traded so many. It's who we have drafted and signed as IFAs that has kept the farm down. The bump to #22 is very encouraging, but when you're at #30, there's only one way to go. An 8 slot jump is pretty significant. I'm not trying to downplay it. I'd like to see where other top ranking services place us this winter. Guys like Chavis, DHern, Taylor and Walden have been helpful, but they are not Devers, Beni, ERod, Bogey, Betts, Moncada and others traded for top players. What bothers me is that, IMO, our best prospects are pretty far away. I'm not that high on Dalbec, Chatham, Houck and Duran- players that can help next year or 2021. I like these guys more (as a group): Age Prospect 19 Casas 20 Mata 22 Ward (may be ready by 2021) 21 Groome (had setback) 19 Jimenez 22 Song (at Lowell this year) 18 Lugo 19 Decker 18 A Flores

That is a bit surprising. Wins last 2 years: 210 HOU 203 NYY 198 LAD 194 OAK 192 BOS 187 ATL 186 TBR 185 MIL 184 CLE (Nobody else above 179.) Last 3 years: 311 HOU 302 LAD 294 NYY 286 CLE 285 BOS 272 WAS 271 Cubs 271 MIL 269 OAK 266 TBR Last 4 years: 395 HOU 393 LAD 380 CLE 378 BOS 378 BOS 374 Cubs 367 WAS ... Since 2003: 1601 NYY 1532 BOS 1527 STL 1517 LAD 1466 LAA 1451 ATL 1433 OAK 1416 CLE 1406 PHI 1404 Cubs 1403 TEX 16th TBR at 1368

I hate the play-in game but going to 8 teams in each league making the playoffs would be worse. Another alternative could be having 3 wild card teams with the worst division record team having a play-in, or have two 3 game series with 2 teams getting a 5-6 day buy. Yuck.

I guess being a #5, #1, #5, #4 and #5 averages out to a 3-4, but I think going forward, he rates to be a 4-5 who gives more innings than most 4-5's. It's great to get a lot of innings from a starter, but it's not so great if it's at 5.00 to 5.50 ERA rate. 4.36 ERA career 4.43 ERA with Boston 4.79 ERA last 3 years 4.87 ERA last 2 years 5.52 ERA last 1 year (second least IP since 2010)

None of the names, other than Cora, inspire me.

Yes, it's my opinion, but I don't preface my opinion with "The facts are clear" then state an opinion. Like when I said Cora was the best Sox manager ever, I didn't say "the facts are clear Cora is the best." Bold is no shouting- ALL CAPS ARE. I have eye sight problems, and it helps me see better and locate my posts and responses to my posts easier. I don't mean to offend anyone.

We're talking farm system and prospect recognition not FA signings and coaching. There's no doubt we used to be one of the best of maybe even "the best," but we have not been even close to the best for 4+ years in "talent recognition" in terms of drafting and IFA signings.

25th 2019 30th 2018 23rd 2017 20th 2016 24th 2015 22nd 2014 Look at their prospect "talent recognition" compared to ours and tell me we are clearly second to none.

I'd move Maddon to #2.

Scouting also involves evaluating ML talent on other teams and deciding who to trade for and what is worth giving up for them. We've made some good and great trades, but some of the most recent ones have not worked out all that well. Cashner: We didn't give up much, at least what we know now, but he sucked. Chacin: just a cheap signing, but he's sucked. Pearce for Espinal- looks great- the re-signing- not so much (more of a medical issue not scouting) Kinsler for Buttrey (oops) Beeks for Eovaldi- may have won us the ring or at least was a big part Signings: Moreland Pearce Eovaldi JD Martinez Price Some good- some not so good

What fact? An article that focuses mostly on 2007-2016 or the fact that are farm is in the bottom third and has had a horrible IFA period lasting 4-5 years and a so-so drafting record since 2014. We got many of our greatest players or traded prospects from the IFA market. I'm not focusing on just that, in fact I listed every draft since 2014 and just provided a link for the IFA selections. Here is a list of significant IFA signings by time period: 2003-2015 Doubront Dice-K Okajima Tazawa Bogey Iggy (traded for Peavy) Montas (traded) Aro (traded) Lin Margot (traded for Kimbrel) Bautista (traded) Devers D Hernandez Moncada (traded for Sale) Castillo Espinoza (traded for Pomeranz) 2015-2019 Velazquez D Flores (RIP) I may be over hyping the IFA market, but look at all those names. Why are you neglecting it? We've sucked at it for 4 cycles. How many more do we need to convince you that area sucks, and that area is a big part of player "recognition". As to the Cora is the greatest ever, the jury is still out. I may have been wrong with what I said. If your logic concludes that once somebody is wrong about something, they must be wrong about everything, I can see why you were duped by this article. I'm sure those who wrote the article have NEVER been wrong. Bottom line: Our farm is bottom 3rd. We have improved some under tough circumstances, which is a good sign, but to say "the facts are clear Boston is second to none in scouting" is just plain speculation at best and absurdity at worst. It's like me saying, "the facts are clear that Cora is the best Sox manager ever, because he has a 50% Ring rate, and that's a fact."

Me2. Also, look at their draft positions: 22 16 4 13 21 21 25 24 17 30 Not that much different than ours, yet they have a top 10 farm.

That was one year, but if you look at the years before & after, I'm not sure you can say it hurt that much.

The IFA signings have killed us and that used to be our strength. There's no way anybody can rightfully call the Sox top talent recognition people with that horrid record since Moncada & Espi in 2014 and Devers in 2013.

Or, is traded.

It's not clearly documented they are the best. We have sucked at signing international free agents for father back than 2016. Look for yourself. Nobody can claim we have done well in that area. Yes, one of the best guys we signed died, but we're not even sure he would have been a top prospect/ https://soxprospects.com/international.htm Our last great drafts were 2011 and 2014, and 2011 was helped by 4 comp picks. The 2014 draft was all about getting Betts in the 5th round and Kopech. We've done squat since then, except for Beni with a 7th pick, which we won't be getting again, unless we hit the cliff. You want me to "document" the squat? 2015 (The second to last year we drafted high) 7th Beni 171 Lakins 411 Poyner Not bad, but not top talent recognition drafting so high. 2016: (last year drafting high) 12 Groome - got hurt and could rise 51 Chatham 88 S Anderson 118 Dalbec 148 Shawaryn Again, not bad, but no evidence of great recognition 2017: 24 Houck - might amount to something but is not top 100 like top recognition guys should be drafting 24th every now and then 63 Brannen- lol 101 Netzer- double lol 131 Thompson- lmao 161 Scherff- wing and a prayer choice 2018: 26 Casas- their best choice first round below #12 in I don't know how long but still ranked like 85th. 64 Decker- lol 100 Feltman- maybe 130 Coleman- who? 160- Ward- GREAT Pick fromt his slot Overall a decent draft with such bad picks. 2019 (saw a draft penalty due to overspending) 43 Cannon 69 Lugo- could be good 107 Zeferjahn 137 Song- nice pick Overall, maybe good for the bad picks, but clearly not good enough to help us get to a top 10 farm again. If you combine the horrid IFA signings with the draft picks, there is no way you can say we are on track to become a top 10 farm again, unless we suck and get top 10 picks at some point. Look, I want to believe otherwise. I see we have some very promising prospects, but compare our top 20 list to the top 20 from April 2016 (Moncada, Devers, Espi, Beni, Kopech, Basabe, Dubon, Marco, Chavis...) or April 2014 (Betts, Bogey, JBJ, Vaz, Barnes, Workman, Margot, Devers...) and our list now is not even close. https://soxprospects.com/history.htm By the way, Amiel Sawdaye was our Director of Amateur scouting until the 2014 draft, so there was a change. He wasn't the only one who left, either. Mike Rikard has been the guy from 2015-2019- that's 5 years and not really part of the 2007-2016 stretch very much.

or, a trade off and a near future spending frenzy.

You mean without subsequent years of suffering? The guys we traded may still become great or much better. I liked many of the trades, including the Sale trade, even if Moncada becomes a monster, but it does make a difference if he does or doesn't.

Yes. I actually think DD did okay with what picks he had. He sucked in IFAs. Our farm is better than I thought it would be, but it is a far distance from where it needs to be to make the rebuild complete and sustainable. The changes in the system are the main reason, and that's why I have stressed the need to get the best people into our scouting and talent recognition areas plus developing pitchers.

Judging who we traded before they've reached the end of team control years is premature.

22nd is no where near what we were before, and that is just one service saying we are 22nd. It's a good source, but most of the article was about 2007-2016, I've never said our farm was totally void of talent, but the few bright stars are far away. Chavis losing prospect status is a tiny blip. The guy hit under .700 for the 3 months after his first 2-3 weeks.