moonslav59

With rule 5 not far away and some cheap free agent signings on the horizon, I wonder who will be the first to go from the 40 man roster. We could deal some players, especially ones without options remaining, like Johnson & Hembree, but he is my list of most likely to be DFA'd, non-tendered or traded: Trevor Kelly Denyi Reyes Jhoulys Chacin Sandy Leon (maybe non tendered then re-signed for cheap) Sam Travis Mike Shawaryn Ryan Weber Colten Brewer Ryan Brasier Hector Velazquez Brian Johnson Heath Hembree

The later years do matter, and couple the big savings in the following years with $3M in 2020, and it's worth it. My hope is Bloom can do wonders with $3M.

I don't know much about Marsh, but I think we might go for someone a little more ML ready (OF, 1B, P).

Sox outright Centeno https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/11/red-sox-outright-juan-centeno.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=facebook

It would still be worth it. We might even be able to deal one or both to further reduce payroll. If we can trade Price, also, we'll be that much closer to the rebuild being complete. Free up some budget space and let Bloom do his thing.

Look, you obviously think they're meaningless. I don't. I don't take them as gospel, but they do have some meaning. Just because there are flaws does not mean they have no value. I don't watch enough games of other teams to judge, and these metrics show me more than I can know by myself.

Devers improved. He was not "amazing."

Agreed, but his status may just depend on what happens with JD and Mookie. Dalbec as a cost-controlled DH could appeal to Bloom and save 15-20 mil that would be spent on someone like the parrot as a JD replacement. Dalbec as a high-powered, low-contact bat is also redundant with Chavis... so maybe one of those two gets dealt, while the other plays second base. Or, as a way to both give players a day off from defense and get the right match-ups with opposing pitchers, they could alternate through the field with others (Devers included), at 1st, 2nd, 3rd and DH -- like Tampa's guys. Why should Dalbec ever DH? He's twice the defender as Devers at 3B. It's a waste of his top skill. That defensive value is worth more in trade than to the Sox with Dalbec at DH or 1B. I don't see how JD and Betts play into this choice. This about 3B and 1B. Maybe Devers could DH, but I'm not for that. Maybe Devers couldplay 1B, but I wouldn't mess with his psyche. One change that has been unexpected in this age of less ground balls, more balls in the air, and defensive shifts is that second base has become less important as a position. Batters grounded into double plays in 2019 at a rate of 7% less than 2013, when Pedroia's defense keyed a title, and 15% less than 2007, when Pedroia was ROY on another title team. Now, anyone can stand in short right, handle one-hop liners and shot put 20-foot throws to first. The Brewers made the last two postseasons platooning guys like Moustakas and Travis Shaw at second. I'm okay with Marco, Lin & Chavis fighting for the 2B job but only as a bridge to 2021 or beyond.

RF/9 just shows how many plays were made per 9 innings- not how many could/should have been made. It's a huge difference. Yes, we all agree that JBJ's UZR and dWAR have been negatively impacted by Betts being in RF and the big wall in left-center that takes away possible outs in other parks, but in my opinion, there are are other CF'ers who play great defense.

Maybe there are discussions going on about an extension or sign and trade.

I don't think Duran or Chatham will be added to the 40 man roster by opening day, but with so many weak players on the roster, they could easily earn their way to it by playing well in AAA to start the 2020 season. I wouldn't mind seeing Devers moved to 1B, but I'd want to make sure Dalbec is worth possibly messing with Devers' position. I'm not sure how we do that. I agree, DH'ing Dalbec makes little sense and playing him at 1B or 2B seems twisted. As much as I want our farm to be built up, trading Dalbec might make the most sense but only for an equally young, cost-controlled player who plays a position we have a great need.

dWAR is also a cumulative number that rewards good players who play more games. UZR/150 is based on how well you play when you play and is not cumulative.

Anibal Sanchez was signed by Dan D as an IFA. Maybe it wasn't as good as I remembered, but you left quite a few guys off Dan D's list of prospects left for Theo: HRam & A Sanchez (Traded by Theo for Beckett & Lowell) Freddy Sanchez (Traded by Theo for Jeff Suppan) Youkilis Shoppach Jorge de la Rosa & Fossum (traded by Theo for Schilling) Delcarmen He is most known for leaving Theo a fine core of solid players- some drafted, some traded for: Pedro Manny Damon VTek DLowe Nomar (Traded for OCab) Wakefield and others

I'm glad we hired DD. He got us a flag. Sorry, I didn't think I had to remind anyone of that. He served his purpose, and now it's time to rebuild. He was not the man for that. Dan D: No rings- left a great farm and core. Theo: 2 rings, left a decent farm and great core. Ben: 1 ring, left a great farm and core. DD: 1 ring, left a near barren farm and a decent core. I have no hard feelings towards any of our last 4 GMs. (There's lots of gray area, here, and I'm sure people will disagree with my over simplifications, but that's how I see it.)

It's a huge overpay.

I didn't mention that, but I'd say the core of young cost-controlled players is less than when Ben and DD took over. Devers, DHern and Bogey at a reasonable cost is about it. I'm not counting guys like Betts & ERod who have 1-2 years left and are no longer young or a "core" for the extended future.

The credit taken away for 2013 is equal to that gained by 2018. DD did not leave anything for the next guy but high debts and a near barren farm. Plus, Ben left DD a better farm than he inherited, although the young core of non prospects was pretty damn awesome.

Obviously UZR/150 is not part of WAR since, as you pointed out, many of the players with better UZR's than JBJ have worse DWARs, although DWAR is a cumulative metric, where as UZR/150 is per game. I'd rather have JBJ than anyone on that list. My point was just about equal or near equal defense available at a small fraction of the cost of JBJ. (I doubt Dyson gets $5M. He's old.) I'm for keeping us strong up the middle on defense. I feel some sacrifices have to be made, and JBJ's offense is not something I'm going to cry about losing, even if he ends up better than everyone on the list.

I'm very optimistic with this kid, but let's not mess him up by rushing him or keeping him down too long. I trust the Sox to know when the right time is. I don't think we've ruined any pitchers by doing either one wrongly.

IMO, Chavis does not hit well enough to play 1B. He may not field well enough to play 2B. My guess is we let the whole mix fight it out and maybe add a cheap slugging 1Bman who might platoon.

I guess it's nice, but these awards are a sham.

I hope he promotes them when they are ready- kind of like we've been doing for a long time. I've never felt like we've left guys in the minors too long or too short. I don't think it's been a problem, and I doubt it will become one. Ward is not ML ready right now, but he may be at some point soon. I hope he is, but I don't want us to rush him. If 2020 is truly a rebuild year, that makes waiting until 2021 easier.

UZR/150 is not WAR, and I did not mean this to prove these guys are better than JBJ. I meant it to show there are several players available that are close to the same or maybe even better than JBJ might be next year. Like you, I want superior defense in CF. I just don'tthink it has to be or should be JBJ.

Well, he might have trade value only if we kick in some cash.

To me, it hardly matters. I think we trade him, if he stays, and we won't get much for him, so it's not such a big deal.