moonslav59

Without JBJ, I see JD playing about the same amount of games in the OF as 2019- maybe less.

I'm not against trading him. I'm also not sure we won't get him back after a trade. I'm 50-50, right now, and that's without knowing what any offers are or might be. My point was, the choice will not be made over a late 4th round comp pick.

Trading him before the start of the year gets us a draft pick after the 4th round. Let's not pretend that's the straw that breaks the donkey's back. We may want to see if we can win in 2020, and deal him to some desperate team in July. Keeping him does have value... probably more than a 4th round pick. If trading him this winter instead of July brings us more back, that should be the choice. If we like an offer- take it. If we don't- wait.

It's the team's best interest to keep JD's bat in the line-up at all costs. Keep him healthy. After each games, they should wrap him in bubble wrap and put him in a padded room. 1B? OF? HELL NO! (If we have to play him 1-2 games in a 3 games series in an NL park, so be it, but I'll be biting my nails down to the quick every game.)

I've been going on the assumption that we will almost certainly reset in 2020 or 2021. I'm of the opinion that 2020 makes more sense, because I want to keep Betts, but in no way do I want to put out the notion that I think the Sox have the same mindset and I do. Yes, it's just opinions. We may not reset for years. We may stay under for 2 years in a row. My main concern, right now, is more about 2021 and beyond (Betts or no Betts) and not 2020. I understand we still have a solid core of players that could gel and all get healthy at the same time and surprise me. I'm okay with hovering around the tax line into July and making the big choice then, but if we decide to sell in July, I think it should be a fire sale: Betts, JD, Price, Eovaldi (assuming all are healthy and able to be traded). If we decide to give it one more try, then trade for some salary, pay the tax one more year and roll the dice. Win or not, I'd think a reset would come in 2021, no matter what, but again, it's just my opinion.

Unless we are able to trade one or two SP'ers for some salary relief. JD will likely opt out next winter. There will or can be enough money for Betts in 2021, if we choose to allocate a huge percent of our entire budget for him. To me, he's worth it. I get the risk argument, and the fact that most large & long contracts fail or are total disasters, but to me, Betts is special.

I think the Yanks could repeat or even improve on 2019, but my point is about the sureness of Jacko's points. He acts like it's all pre-ordained. Every year, there are surprises- good & bad. Yes, many Sox players had great years and some had career years, but not even close to everyone. Kimbrel fell off a cliff at season's end. Kelly sucked for 3 months before rebounding in October. Losing K & K should not have caused such a massive drop-off. Here's a look at Sox players who did worse in 2018 than 2017: 2017 OPS> 2018 .892>.677 Nunez .819>.731 Devers (.916 in 2019) .769>.758 Moreland (close to even) .735>.540 Vazquez (.798 in 2019) .726>.717 JBJ (close to even) .644>.511 Leon 2017 ERA-> 2018 31>71 Kimbrel 61>98 Kelly 69>73 Workman (39 in 2019) 72>136 Pomeranz 74>80 Price Sure, some of these numbers distort the true value as PAs or IP might be vastly different from 2017 to 2018.

And that can't happen this winter (in reverse)?

Sometimes the truth is damn funny!

Quite a few people had off years and were hurt. Some sucked badly even in the playoffs. Some of us were arguing Kelly shouldn't even be on the playoff roster. Don't tell me everything went right. A lot did, yes, but it can also go right again. We have almost the same exact team back, and if you look at who we lost to free agency- most will be addition by subtraction. I would not bet on it. In fact, I'm leaning towards trading off some pieces to make the rebuild better and quicker, but we have a core capable of putting it all together in 2020.

Think about what happened between 2018 and 2019. Anything can happen.

I noticed it yesterday. I guess the site has to make money somehow.

There may not be a high likelihood of everyone being healthy at once, but it is possible. My guess is we stay just under the cap line until July (No JBJ) and decide what to do then.

These big sluggers haven't been getting paid much, including Moose, himself.

Not always, but your point is well taken. I'd offer Betts a #320M/10 year contract. That's no Lester low ball offer. That would not cause any hard feelings. If he declines, like he likely would, I'd look for a good trade. If I found one, I'd tell him we want him back, but we are doing what we think is best for the club, and we'll be better in 2021, so look for another great offer next year. If he takes it the wrong way, so be it. If he gets a better offer in 2021, we'd probably have lost him anyways- trade or not. It's a tough call. If I really felt like we'd have a much better chance at signing him by not trading him, I might swing to the no trade side. I'm like right on the fence, right now. The other thing that makes me second guess keeping him is that a $320M or more - 10 year deal is a big risk. I'd do it, but it's not a slam dunk good deal. I doubt we get him for less than $320M/10, unless he gets hurt or sucks in 2020. I'm torn. I'm literally 50-50. If we don't trade Betts, I'd try hard to trade Price and/or Eovaldi. If I can't move one, I'd look to deal JD before he opts out next winter. All this talk about how it would be a slap in the face to trade him, will it be a slap when he opts out after 2020? He will, unless he gets hurt badly or sucks in 2020. Making no trades of big contracts will delay and reduce the quality of our rebuild.

We've reached consensus!

I think it was revealed the Cubs out bid us by a significant amount. I'm not even sure he'd have come back had we matched it or topped it by $1M.

I think the Sox will wait until July. I want Betts here, but I'm on the fence about trading him now for something useful, signing some decent small cost FAs and then go for broke in 2021 by signing Betts back or some other big name player. I'm more geared towards 2021 and beyond over 2020. I don't think our chances are that good for 2020. I realize the lost revenue coupled with trading Betts may make trading him this winter not happen, but I'm 50-50 on trading Betts this winter. I'm not sure we are exactly on the same page. I would certainly look into trading Price and Eovaldi. I'd also look into trading JD. To me, JBJ is as good as gone, sadly. I don't want the rebuild to be hampered or delayed, but I'd also like to see us be good in 2020. I'm not sure trying to have it both ways accomplishes much. I doubt we win in 2020, and keeping everybody may make rebuilding harder and longer.

I look at the numbers and think this... I doubt Moose gets $10M x 2. I think he gets $8M/1 or $14M/2. I think Ozuna's $15M x 3 looks like the best in terms of quality vs price. (If we trade JD or Betts, maybe he might be an option. If we lose JBJ and can trade Price or Eovaldi, maybe he can be squeezed in, somehow.) Sleeper pick: Lindblom Most likely signings by the Sox: Strop & Calhoun

I never said we had to trade Betts. Never. I mentioned trading Betts getting something good in return and then having his salary to spend for 2020, and that the FAs signed plus the return in trade might help us beyond 2020. It would be a deal for the future not 2020, but all would not be lost on 2020, if Bloom spends the $28M wisely. We reset in 2020, and then we look better in 2021 both financially and roster wise, since we can still bring Betts back either way. You went off on me like I was nuts, and I wasn't even saying we should trade Betts, just that it is an option that would likely improve our longer term rebuild. What are we arguing about? (BTW, my eyesight is bad, and I did not see the minus sign on the $18M "cap space". My bad- sorry! That site is not far off. We won't trade Cashner. We'll just not give him the $8M club option.)

"Budget cap space" implies being under the line by $18M. Here's cots: They don't list arb costs, but here is MLBTR's estimates: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/10/mlb-arbitration-salaries-2020.html It shows us with about $56.8M to spend on arbs Red Sox (12) Jackie Bradley Jr. – $11MM Sandy Leon – $2.8MM Chris Owings – $3.0MM GONE Mookie Betts – $27.7MM Brandon Workman – $3.4MM Steven Wright – $1.5MM GONE Eduardo Rodriguez – $9.5MM Matt Barnes – $3.0MM Heath Hembree – $1.6MM Andrew Benintendi – $4.9MM Marco Hernandez – $700K Gorkys Hernandez – $1.0MM GONE Counting the guys who are "GONE", the arbs total about $64M If we shed JBJ, we get under the line by a little bit. There is no room to sign anybody and reset, unless we trade some salary. We can gain a little by axing Hembree & Leon and maybe sign a cheap FA, but that's it. Your site: https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/boston-red-sox/payroll/ It has JD at $23.75M for luxury tax. It's $22M because the AVV is $22M. They are also counting Cashner, and his $8M option will not be taken. That's just 2 mistakes I found while looking quickly. Either way, take off Cashner and JBJ and they'd have us near the $208M line, just as I said.

Believe what you want. There is a $15M player benefit cost that counts against the luxury budget. I used cots- the most respected source out there and the arb projections from MLBTR, who have been very accurate over the years. With nobody re-signed and no FAs singed, we are about $10M over. Not bringing JBJ back puts us about even. We can let Leon and Hembree go to as a bit more, but my numbers are very close to accurate. The tax limit next year is $208M, so that site is messed up. cots has us $57M under the line, but they do not count arbs. Your claim of not signing Porcello would open $24M to spend is wrong on so many levels, I'm getting close to putting you on ignore. (I've only done that once on this site, so consider yourself special.)

For SP'ers I like (in order): ERA- (or ERA+) OPS against WHIP K/BB fWAR Far behind are xFIP FIP ERA W-L For RP'ers: OPS against WHIP K/BB fWAR ERA- For everyday players: OPS+ or wRC+ WAR OPS (I use this most often since it is easier to understand) OBP SLG UZR/150 Far behind are... BA SG or SB% RBI Runs OPS Late & Close or high leverage DRS (These aren't set in stone, but it's roughly how I see it.)

Obviously, nothing is a sure thing. These cliches of generalities are coming to you live from another poster who's on board with paying Betts 30-plus million a year for the next decade... a contract that likely breaks down in actual value to about 43.3 mil per for the next six, and only 10 mil per for the last four. And I think he will earn it. Betts could actually be worth $60-70M a year for 2-3 years. $320M/10 could be a steal for us... or not.

Not re-signing Porcello and Cashner are already part of the equation. Not bringing anyone back leaves us about $10M over the line. Trading Betts allows us to spend up to $28M and still reset, which is the goal. We can spend about $28M and still reset. If they are all one year deals, we'll have $28M to spend in 2021, too, plus more from newly departing FAs and/or maybe JD opting out. There is no indication Henry wants to stay under the tax line every year. I'm thinking he wants to reset and then would be okay going over the first line and maybe the second only when needed. Your "simpler plan" shows you are clueless about where we are budget wise.