moonslav59

Yes, I expect that. I'm hoping not Early or Tolle. We'd need two with Abreu or Rafaela.

I agree I'm reaching on Buxton. The main point of getting him was to help MN cut salary and make the return for Ryan not be as high. I'm not saying Buxton is a salary dump player, but I did include Hicks or Masa in the deal, which offsets some of the risk on Buxton. Yes, Buxton may decline, but he has gotten better while Duran did not. I'm fine with not including Buxton. How about Duran, Crawford, Hicks, Wong and some young pitchers for Ryan, Jeffries and Lopez?

I really like Duran. Honestly, I do. I also see he has enormous trade value and should add more value to another team without 3-5 OF'ers on their roster without him. I think the step "down" to Rafaela/Anthony/Abreu is minimal, and Duran at DH is less value to us that Duran as a LF'er to another team. (We also have Yoshida, Romy, Campbell and other bat first players on the roster.) We desperately need a #2, since I think Gio bolts or is to uncertain, if he returns. We desperately need a corner infielder who can hit 30+ HRs. If Breggie bolts, we need two. Abreu, Rafaela and Anthony have more years of control and project to improve not decline. We have Jh Garcia, Campbell and emergency OF'ers Yoshida and Eaton as depth. We have little corner IF depth and while we have rotation depth, we need a strong #2. Tell me where I went wrong on Duran? It's because I value him highly, I think we can get a #2 SP'er or a big bat corner infielder for him. ( A bigger bat but without the speed and maybe a worse defender.)

If you had to pick one projected OPS for 2026, which would it be? Closer to A or B? 2025 OPS .859 Anthony: A. 775/ B .850 (I pick B) .786 Abreu: A. .775/ B. .850 (B) .774 Duran: A .800/ B .725 (A) .741 Story: A. .700/ B. .775 (A) .708 Rafaela: A. .650/ B. .725 (B) .726 Narvaez: A. .675/ B. .750 (B) .696 Yoshida: A. .725/ B. .800 (B) .674 Mayer: A. .700/ B. 775 (B) .580 Casas: A. .750/ B. .825 (B) .826 Romy: A. .750/ B. .825 (A) .500 Wong: A. .625/ B. .700 (B) _____________________ If returns... .821 Bregman: A. .750/ B. .825 A) .838 Refsnyder: A. .775/ B. .850 (B as strict platoon) .790 Lowe: A. .725/ B. .800 (A)

Good post, max. I don't think we can say "if." We simply have to add one big bat, even if Breggie returns and two if he bolts. I'm actually for adding 2 big bats w Breggie or 3 w/o, but that ain't happening.

Casas has a history of doing okay v L (.796) and is almost identical to vs R (.814) Rafaela has reverse splits, but since he's not very good both vs L and R, it might not matter much. With an OF full of lefties, he does not help, when we face RHPs. Abreu & Romy both improved measurably vs LHPs, but we can't be sure that continues.

My bad.

I'm not comfy, but I'm not comfy having no big hitters in our 2026 projected line-up, either. Plus, we'd be getting Ryan.

Agreed, but if the give up Buxton and or Lopez, they'd still save a lot. (Or, we pay a chunk of Yoshida's deal.)

They also had more high end batters in '24 than '25, especially among top PAs players. Split Season Listed by most PAs '24 and '25 .834 Duran '24 (a top hitter in '24 NOT '25) > .774 Duran '25 .741 Story '25 .871 Devers '24> .821 Bregman '25 and .905 Devers for 2 months in '25 .708 Rafaela '25 .664 Rafaela '24 (black hole in '24 not '25) .758 Wong '24 (black hole in '25 not '24> but we had .726 Narvaez '25 .847 O'Neill a top hitter in '24>>> replaced by .859 Anthony '25 .781 Abreu '24 >>.786 Abreu '25 (near the same as '24) .765 Yoshida '24 (near a black hole in '25) .826 Romy '25 .905 Devers '25 (traded away) ______________________________ .830 Ref '24>.838 in '25 .659 Toro '25 (black hole) .>706 D Smith ('24 near black hole) .800 Casas '24> .664 Campbell '25 (black hole) .633 E Valdez '24 + .723 Romy '24 > .697 DHam '24 (became a black hole in '25) Here's another way of looking at it: worst OPS in 2024 or 2025 (200+ PAs) We started the 2024 season with 2 guys that went on to be blackholes and Wong became one the following year. We started 2025 with Campbell as a soon-to-be black hole. It was 2 to 1. 2024 EValdez .633 in 223 PAs was the starting 2Bman opening day '24 (See DHam below) 2025 Toro .659 in 284 as a sub not a starter 2024 Rafaela .664 (no longer a black hole in '25) Starting CF'er 2025 Campbell .664 was staring 2Bman in '25 Borderline Black Holes: 2025 Yoshida .696 2024 DHam .697 took over 2B

I think we have to expect further decline from Duran.

I guess that settles that. If he'd waive the 10/5 thingy, maybe add Yoshida and a few $million and call it even?

For how many years have we heard criticism about the 2-3 "black holes" our line-up seemed to have year-after-year? With all the 2025 injuries, we saw it happen, again this season, but the reality is that our line-up was one of the most balanced in MLB. Let's start with the reality of a league with a .719 OPS, this year. (It was .734 in 2023 & .758 in '19.) One big help for the Sox was having a catcher that his .726. Many teams had a black hole from that slot. Only 17 out of the top 37 catchers by PAs had an OPS over .719. The Sox did end up with a black hole at 1B, due to the Casas injury, but Lowe was acquired in AUG and topped the .719 mark with a decent .790 OPS. Rafaela fell below the .719 mark, but it's hard to view 11 points under average as a "black hole." Even Yoshida managed to get his OPS out of the "black hole" range (.696) Our black holes in 2025 were: .659 Toro (10th in PAs and the Casas back-up, until Lowe/Romy took over 1B) .664 Campbell (11th in PAs and one more failure at fixing the long-standing 2B issue.) .590 DHam (14th in PAs hardly matters much, but when coupled w KC: OUCH!) .500 Wong (15th and as a back up catcher with improved defense, maybe near acceptable.) Of course, we can't really count our #8 PA guy, Devers in the mix (.905,) so here are the rest: Listed by most PAs: .774 Duran (24 SBs) .741 Story (31 SBs) .708 Rafaela (20 SBs) .821 Bregman (46 XBHs in 433 ABs) .726 Narvaez (42 XBHs in 403 ABs) .786 Abreu (39 XBHs in 373) .826 Romy (35 XBHs in 341) .859 Anthony (Could be the key to '26) .838 Refsnyder (21 XBHs in 209 ABs) .696 Yoshida (just 15 XBHs in 188) .674 Mayer (13 in 136) .790 Lowe (just 9 in 100) In short, it looks like we have done a great job cutting way back on black hole bats getting near FT play, but now the problem has shifted to the lack of a couple big bopper bats blatantly bashing balls. If we can replace the Toro's, DHam's & Wong's with a couple top batters, maybe we can go places.

I might trade Duran's 3 years of control for 4 years of Abreu straight up. Abreu plays better D and at a more difficult position. Duran runs much better. The L-R split thing may now be in Abreu's favor. vs LHPs: 2025: .676 Abreu/ .600 Duran Is that enough to outweigh 2024-2025? .604 Abreu/ .634 Duran

$70M is too high, with his declining D, but his speed does add a lot of value. How would BTV rate a trade like this? Duran, Rafaela & Hicks for Buxton & Ryan

We need one of both: a big power bat (high Ks or not) and a .300 type batter with a .360+ OBP.

Bregman and Casas were FT'ers, too, but both suffered significant injuries. Narvaez is about as FT a catcher as you can have. Anthony should have been a wire-to-wire FT'er, but was called up late and got hurt, too. Mayer should have started on the 26 over Campbell, but his injury history came to the forefront, anyway. Do not be surprised if Abreu loses his platoon status, next season. The only 2026 platoon might be Yoshida-Romy at DH or Mayer-Romy at 2B. I suppose we could platoon Jh Garcia with Duran and or Abreu, but one will be gone, this winter.

Lay off Gio and his sore elbow. Breggie opts out but may return on a slightly longer deal without all the differals. Story takes the option. Hendriks is a no-brainer bye bye. Also, the team give Duran is $8M option, and he has 2 arb years after that, but we trade him this winter.

I'm all for trading Duran for the right return, but if we don't add two bats (better than Duran & Bregman) our offense takes a step back, when need a major step up. I realize that for many years the farm focus was on everyday players, and we have about 12-15 pretty decently, mostly young bats with a lot of promise, but we need to add some surer bets. If Breggie returns we still need two bats- maybe just one mega and the other like a Hoskins, Polanco or even Torres.

Our injured pitchers never come back.

I'm not too impressed with the FA pitching class.

I have no beef with his bat. He might be the worst defensive SS with a ton of innings in MLB history.

Seems realistic and doable. Does it work with Duran not Abreu?

Sad way for the Phillies to lose.

He was very consistent. If you throw out the 202 PA 1992 season, he hit between .297 and .328, every other season from 1985 to 1993. He dropped off sharply at age 30 and was out of baseball after his age 32 season. He had several seasons with more BBs than K's, including his fantastic 1988 season, where he walked 87 times and K'd just 38 times. How many times does someone walk more than twice their K total? 1988: .325 22 119 (.416 OBP/ .531 SLG/ .956 OPS) He had a .570 SLG in 1987, but only got over .460 one other time.