moonslav59

Don't forget the heap of cash.

Yes, and for them to learn our system, especially Quantrill, who would likely be our 5th starter out of the gate.

Since the luxury tax number is so much lower than the actual money owed, I'm not sure the BTV break even point needs to be met. Maybe, we get Myers, $25M, Quantrill and Arias for some long shot prospect.

Is he trying to squeeze one more prospect out of SD?

Of course, but adding Chavis or Dalbec (one is likely blocked) for another prospect or two who fill positions of higher need (pitching) might make sense. I'm fine with sending just a nobody for Quantrill, Myers and a heap of cash.

Yes, it could be a nobody for just Myers, cash and Quantrill.

I'm curious about the rumor we get more than just Quantrill, but I guess it depends on who we give to SD. I'm thinking Chavis or Dalbec, so maybe it's someone else decent.

We're likely not done with off season moves, but I guess it's time for Part II. Here's the link to Part I: https://www.talksox.com/forum/threads/19484-A-Realistic-View-at-2020-Part-I Wow, no Betts. No Price. No Luxury Tax. Our slim ring chances for 2020 took a big hit, but our extended outlook appears much brighter. Back to 2020: here's my take on the depth chart by position (Red are the likely 26 man roster players- some due to no options or rule 5 restrictions). SP: Sale, ERod, Eovaldi, Perez, Weber Johnson, Houck, Velazquez, Hart, Shawaryn, McGrath, Kent, Reyes, Ward RP: Workman, Barnes, Taylor, Walden, D Hernandez, Brasier, Hembree, Brice Brewer, Osich, (see SP'ers), Mazza, Springs, Hall, Poyner C: Vazquez, Plawecki, Lucroy, Centeno, Bandy, Wong, A Rei 1B: Moreland, Chavis, Dalbec, Ockimey, Longhi, Joseph 2B: (Pedroia IL), Peraza, Chavis, Lin, Arauz, Chatham, Marco, Downs 3B: Devers, Dalbec, Chavis, Lin, Marco, Witte SS: Bogaerts, Lin, Arauz, Chatham, Marco, de la Guerra, Downs LF: Benintendi, JD, Pillar, (Moreland/Chavis), Puello, Lin CF: JBJ, Pillar, Puello, Lin, Wilson, Duran, Castillo RF: Verdugo, Pillar, JD, Puello, Wilson, Duran, Castillo DH: Martinez, Dalbec, Chavis We need a lot to go right to be a top contender, but it could happen. More likely, we'll fight hard to make the wild card game and hope for a surprise. The Myers trade is on the horizon. Spring training games begin, soon. Spring is in the air. GO SOX!

Will do, but who loads all the pages?

It would be nice to have some more excitement this winter. Kind of a let down after all the Betts hoopla.

Thanks, I don't know why I keep doing that. I also keep typing Bllom not Bloom.

Yes, I was wrong on that point.

I see a 1.3 dWAR in 2019. I see a -1.2 UZR/150 and -1 DRS in 2019. To be fair, I usually use a 3 year sample size on these numbers, but JBJ is getting older. I expect better than 2019, this year but not 2018 numbers. Not $10M. (I'm thinking Bloom must think he's worth that, so who am I to say otherwise?)

The away OPS does not scare me, because he'd be playing half his games in Fenway, and .858 is one of our best away OPS. He also has speed on the bases and is a better defender than JBJ, especially in 2019 and the expected beyond. JBJ has declined, slightly on D, Betts seems to be getting better.

He may have been worth close to $6-8M on defense only, in his prime, but he's not worth $10M on defense, now. I think people short-change his offensive value. I'll be happy watching JBJ in CF, this year, especially, if the other choice was Beni, and since we are resetting, his $11M does not bother me. The only way his contract bothers me, is if it is preventing us from getting a fine pitcher. JBJ is still my favorite player with Devers on the rise.

...and that's the reason they use the average salary not seasonal. It's a reason I'd prefer offering Betts $416M/13 over $360M/10 The AVV is $32.0 vs $36.0

Betts can ask and demand all he wants, but the price will be set by the highest bid from a GM. Once we know what that is, then we can haggle about the Sox not one upping that bid, or not. The Sox are pretty good at valuing their own talent and offering a fair contract and not going much higher. I still think we have a better chance by trading him, but that assumes we want to pay what it will take. I'm not sure we do or should, but to me, we should offer a big contract (maybe $400M/13) and then let the chips fall where they may.

1B, corner OF, DH. Weird acquisition, unless Bloom thinks the world of Quantrill. Maybe we trade JBJ or Beni. Maybe we trade Chavis.

Agreed. We're lucky they might give us just Quantrill and $20-30M.

YES! The Betts trade was the first step of many needed to get us there. I think we can win again before Sale and Bogey's deal run out. I'm not sure 2021 is realistic, but I'm trying to stay optimistic.

Hey, you're signing to the choir on Sale. I loved Sale from about 3-4 years before the trade. That being said, Kimmi is right, we "Might" have won without him. (We might not have.)

Nope. Not even when he was prime.

In theory, if these values are close to correct, we could give nothing and get Meyers (-47) plus 47 to balance it out. Mix and match: Campusano & Morejon or Campusano, Quantrill & Baez or Naylor, Morejon, Quantrill & Baez I doubt SD comes close to any of this, but they don't pay any cash. More likely is Myers + $30M and Quantrill which comes out about a Baez short, but it is what it is.

Oh, I get it. The other great thing about adding an ace, is it makes your current #1 the #2, your #2 becomes your #3, your 4 the 5 and your 5 adds to the pen.

Agreed. I think Bloom is alone among GMs in thinking JBJ is worth $11M