moonslav59

Did you mean to say NOT surprised?

One could argue the opposite for pitchers we signed.

Exactly. You don't get a to FA unless you overpay or give too many years. Even the Manny deal, the best of our mega signings, ended poorly.

While agree with your theory on avoiding super large and long deals, one can make a firm case that just about every ring we have since 2004 was, at worst, aided by the signing of a long term FA, and at best, seeing the long term signing as an essential aspect of winning the ring. On that "other site," I started one of the most responded to posts in history called, "No Manny- No Rings." (Later, I stared threads called "No Papi- No Rings" and "No VTek- No Rings," too). Without Manny's deal, IMO, we don't win in 2004 or 2007. One can argue Papi's 4 year extension in 2005 does not qualify as a long term deal, but clearly he helped us win in 2004, 2007 & 2013. The same could be said of Beckett's 4 year deal in 2010 and our 2013 ring. JD Drew's 2007 contract for 5 years can be debated and was for years. John Lackey's 5 year deal in 2009 certainly was a key component in the 2013 season. David Price's long term deal seemed essential to our 2018 ring. Yes, the list of bad and mediocre long term signings by the Sox is long- perhaps longer than the good list, but long term deals have played an essential role in all of our championships. Moncada's large signing bonus and tax netted us Chris freakin' Sale. Castillo was a total waste. CC & Pablito's deals, too. Dice-K gave us 2-3 decent to very good seasons. AGon helped us dump CC & Beckett and paved the way to the 2013 championship by allowing us to sign Vic, Napoli, Drew, Gomes & Dempster. Pedey's extension was not needed for the 2013 ring season, and he was not an essential part of the 2018 season, but that deal was not a total dissaster.

I liked the Vic signing, despite knowing and saying it was a year too long, but a 3 year deal being a year too long beats the hell out of a 7 year deal that is 3 years too long. The first Napoli deal was a steal, due mainly to health concerns that kept the price & years low. I was not a big fan of the Drew signing, because of my wishes for Iggy becoming our FT SS. I hated the Dempster deal, and we lucked out when he retired.

Obviously, I was proven wrong, but I did feel much better about the team after signing Victorino, Gomes & Napoli. We also ended up flipping Cespedes for Porcello, then extending him for only his prime years- 2 things I didn't see coming when we traded Lester for 1 year of Cespedes.

I don't get it. If hitters were struggling, pitchers should have had better numbers. If both were struggling the numbers should have evened out.

I've mentioned Odorizzi as a good second tier signing and would like him in our rotation. Hill is a very good starter, but we need someone reliable and durable. Sugano seems like a good gamble. I have yet to hear our name linked to any decent RP'ers.

I was really talking about pre-start of season optimism, and although I liked our chances in 2004, it was hard for any Sox fan to get overly optimistic about winning a ring. Once that season started I was hooked. Once the Nomar trade was made I became very confident. The trades of 2012 bothered me. I was all for the cleaning of the house, but I felt we played it "halfway." That was the term I used. I felt we avoided a true rebuild by not acquiring enough young players ofr a longer term look. We tried to stay "just good enough" to give the fans false hopes for 2013 and not really enough to significantly affect the future beyond 2013. (Cespedes was a one year get.) I liked many of the winter signings, but felt we needed an ace. I've always hated rebuilding a rotation from the 4/5 slot, and Dempster did not thrill me, at all. One more thing about my optimism, for the most part, I am usually one of the last fans or posters to "give up" on a season in progress. This was not true in 2019, as I think I was maybe the first to think we had a great chance before the season started and then give up so early. I was calling for a fire sale by June... many suggested trades involving Eovaldi or Price. As for now, I have a little optimism for 2021, a lot depending on what Bloom does this winter, but I have a growing optimism for our longer term success, thanks in large part to the Bloom hiring. I think we did a better than expected job drafting with such low picks. I like the trades Bloom made to bring us a young star like Verdugo and prospects like Downs, Seabold, Rosario, Potts, Wong and Wallace. Our farm still has a way to go, but it is no longer a bottom 5 system. It may very well be in the top 15-18 after the next draft. I was one of many who saw"the cliff" coming, but I saw and still see that as realism not pessimism, but I'm more and more hopeful the down period is shorter than I originally expected.

Let's not hold a 52 PA sample size, like Beni's in 2020, against anybody, especially under the circumstances he was facing, okay? Now, let's look at the rest of his career? I don't see a steady or "declining performance." I see a young player with some ups and downs, early in his career. Remember, the guy had just 151 games in the minors. His OBP in his first 3 seasons in MLB (all seasons with 615+ PAs): .352 .366 .343 (He was at .357 at the end of August 2019). One could argue those numbers are remarkably consistent. Now, I'm not saying I'm unconcerned: I am. He certainly needs watching. I can agree on that.

Uh-oh.

That would be the 2022 thread.

LOL. This will be a test on just how good DD is, as a GM, if he never gets to spend, spend, spend. Let's see, if he decimates their farm system to get to the promise land or as close as possible.

My guess is, if you randomly choose any 60 game sample size in any season, you will find very poor numbers for many top players. Maybe there were slightly more in this shortened 2020 season, due to the reasons you mention, but the major factor could just be "small sample sizes."

If you look back at all my pre-season win projections, I'm almost always overly optimistic- sometimes by a lot from what the final numbers are. The weird thing is, the early spring of 2013, I was not optimistic. I wasn't in 2004, until we traded Nomar away.

I'd say a good case could be made that any of these guys might belong in the top 20 over Decker: 21 Wong 23 Wallace 25 Arauz 26 Bazardo 30 Whitlock I'm sure some case could be made for a few I did not list.

Hope & Prayers?

I'm a realist, but recently that means almost total pessimism.

I'll take a shot at my projected 2021 Red Sox 26 and 40 man roster on opening day: Sox in a 3-team deal (accepted on Trade values site): Sox get SP Taillon, C Stallings, LF Polanco & 2B Adam Frazier (from PIT) RP Anderson & CF Kiermaier (from TB) TB gets C Vazquez & Groome (from BOS) PIT gets Fleming (from TB) & Beni, Chatham & Wong (from BOS) Brice is traded for non 40 man roster prospect. Sox sign Brad Hand (Closer), Oliver Perez (LH RP) & Pillar CF Pedey retires. 26 Man Roster: IL: Sale (41st man) SP: Taillon, Eovaldi, ERod, Pivetta, Houck RP: Hand, Anderson, Barnes, Brasier, DHern, Taylor, O Perez, Whitlock C: Stallings, Plawecki 1B: Dalbec 2B: Frazier (LHH) 3B: Devers SS: Bogaerts LF: Polanco (LHH)/Pillar RHH (CF) CF: Kiermaier (LHH) RF: Verdugo DH: Martinez UT: Chavis IF: Arroyo Remaining 40 man roster players (AAA or AA) P: Seabold, Mazza, Valdez, Bazardo, Mata, Brewer, Walden, Payamps, Springs C: Grullon IF: Arauz, Potts OF: Wilson, Rosario

Notable projected AAA players: SP: Seabold, Weber, Mazza, Mata, Hart (AA: Ward, Reyes) RP: Feltman, Bazardo, Shawaryn, Gonsalves, Payamps, Hall, Espinal C: Grullon (AA Wong) 1B: Ockimey (AA Casas) 2B: Downs SS: Arauz 3B: de la Guerra (AA Potts) LF: Mieses CF: Duran (AA Rosario) RF: Gettys (AA Wilson) DH: Munoz

Well, soxprospects projects 27 players for the 26 man roster, including 6 acquisitions: (Sale on IL, Pedey "inactive hitter." Brewer as "trade candidate," and Walden & Springs "on roster bubble." SP:Eovaldi, ERod, Pivetta, Houck, ____, ____ RP: ____, Barnes, Brasier, DHern, Taylor, Valdez, Brice, Whitlock C: Vazquez, Plawecki 1B: Dalbec 2B: ______ IF: Arroyo UT: Chavis LHH: _____ SS: Bogaerts 3B: Devers LF: Beni CF: ____ RF: Verdugo DH: JD

Then, the massive letdown!

I think so, too, but it's not a sure bet.

soxprospects.com writes on newly acquired rule 5 draftees: http://news.soxprospects.com/2020/12/scouting-report-updates-garrett.html Garrett Whitlock Throws from a three-quarters arm slot. Short arm action behind, hides the ball. Delivery is a little stiff, but he repeats it well. Fastball: 90-93 mph. Tops out at 95 mph. Slider: 77-82 mph. Slurvy breaking ball with two-plane break. Potential average offering. Changeup: 81-85 mph. Third pitch at the moment, but will show late drop when at its best. Can turn it over on occasion. Potential fringe-average offering. Summation: Potential emergency swingman type, capable of starting or relieving. Future potential is hard to nail down as he has yet to retake the mound in a competitive game situation since his surgery, so it is not clear whether his stuff and command have come fully back. Fastball/slider combination should play in a bulk inning bullpen role at least, but he will need to develop his changeup more and show the ability to miss more bats to stick as a starter long-term. Tyreque Reed Physical Description: Thick, stocky build. Very strong and physical. Hit: Starts square and utilizes a leg kick timing device. Swing is relatively short and he has some feel for the strike zone. He does have swing-and-miss in his game and will have to show he can handle more advanced pitching after struggling in High A to start 2019. Velocity, especially up in the zone, is a challenge for him. Will have to show he can hit pitches in that area as he moves up the ladder. Power: Plus-plus raw power. Power is more strength-based, but has shown the ability to impact the ball to all fields. How his power plays will depend on how his hit tool develops. Plus power potential. Run: Well below-average speed. Field: Below-average defensive profile. Lacks athleticism and fluidity. Profiles best at first base, but played a little bit in the corner outfield in 2017 after signing. Arm: Average arm strength. Summation: Projects as an organizational depth bat. Has one carrying tool in his power, but does not project to add much defensive value and there are serious questions about how his hit tool will play against more advanced pitching. Kaleb Ort Scouting Report: Tall right-hander with a mature frame. No remaining projection. Relief-only delivery with considerable effort. Fastball sits in the mid-90s and touches 98 mph. Fastball has shown the ability to miss bats. Command and control need work. Primary secondary is a slider. Tore his UCL in high school but rehabbed the injury and did not have surgery. Signed with the Diamondbacks in 2016 out of the independent Frontier League. Was cut in training camp and went back to the Frontier League briefly before signing with the Yankees in May 2017 at age 25. Potential organizational reliever.

I agree, but JD was very big on use of the video room. That won't be changing. (The others may not, either.)