moonslav59

Odorizzi is the guy I wanted all along, especially because of his wanting only 3 years. I'd have rather signed him than Ottavino, as we could have pushed a starter to the pen, but there's not going back, there. It's not like Odorizzi is going to put us way over the line, anyway, and if Henry wants to go over by less, then we can trade Beni and/or a few players at the deadline.

This is very likely to happen, IMO. There are a few CF'ers out there via trade, but Pillar won't cost us any players from an already shallow roster.

Yes, calling it just a steal was silly: it was grand larceny.

Close to zero risk. They gave up next to nothing, and I doubt there was someone better available for what they gave up. Yes, they have many question marks, but they have 8 choices for their last 4 rotation slots. Taillon is just one.

You said it better than I did. I'm also not so sure we can read too much into Sale's recent numbers as he was returning from some down time, yet not all his 2019 numbers were bad. His 13.3 K rate was his second highest of his career- second only to 2018. His 2.3 BB/9 was his worst since 2012, but very close to his career 2.1 mark. His K/BB ratio was 5.89, which is better than his career 5.37 mark and 4th best of his career. His 3.39 FIP seems concerning, but even that was not his worst season and was not all that much higher than his career 2.90 mark. WHIP? 1.086, which is very close to his career 1.035 WHIP. His OPS against was .532, and we're supposed to think this signals a complete breakdown of his ability to "ramp it up?" Plus, he was actually getting better towards the end of 2018 (.466 last 7 games) He had a .695 OPS against in 2019, but finished the season with 25 Ks in his last 14.2 IP (2BB + 7 H). I realize, he could be toast. We've been hearing his violent arm action would lead to severe injury for years and years. Maybe his time is up, but the guy has already shown he could and did comeback from the first injury, and coming back from TJS is now pretty commonplace.

The velo charts just do not support your claim. His velo did dip from his previous 1-3 years but was the same as his earlier years when he was still Cy Young material. His K rate has been his highest the last 3 years. How was he K'ing people without "ramping it up?" (And, if he was K'ing people without ramping it up, maybe it proves he doesn't need top velo to be great.) Let's be honest, yes. These graphs don't lie: https://www.fangraphs.com/players/chris-sale/10603/graphs?pitchgraphs=true&statArr=&legend=1&split=base&time=daily&start=2012&end=2019&rtype=mult&gt1=15&dStatArray=FA&ymin=&ymax=

Me, too. Also, Chavis hits RHPs better than LHPs, so he would not make a good platoon in LF with Beni, if he's on the 26 man roster. I would not like to see a Renfore/ Chavis platoon in LF with Beni in CF or RF.

Why such a salary difference?

I think spending large for 3 straight years should be discouraged. Maybe the multiplying factor should be adjusted by how much you actually go over in year 1 and 2. Going over by $1M year 1 should not trigger the same tax rate year 3 as going over by $25M.

His velocity barely dropped, his K rate rose, but you keep saying this.

Not if Beni is in CF.

Some, including MLBTR, had C Hernandez rated higher than E Hernandez. It appears C got $5M/1 while E got $14M/2. Realmuto is getting $23M x 5 with Philly.

If we just go a few million over the threshold, the tax won't be much, but down the road, the 2nd and 3rd year triggers could get costly, if we end up spending big next winter or the one after.

I never thought it made sense to sign him to play 2B, when he's better than Bogey on defense at SS.

There goes all my 3-way trades involving Vaz to Philly and Stallings to BOS from Pitt. The Cards seem to have the biggest need for a catcher, but maybe Molina returns.

Picking up a 1Bman mid May or June should never be an issue.

I suggested a few trades for Adam Hasely. I'm not sure they want Beni and/or Chavis. Some included Pivetta to PHI, if they included Velazquez who has just 1 year left. I know you hate 3 way suggestions, but I had one with Vaz (and maybe Beni, too) going to PHI and Hasely, Stallings and Frasier or Brault coming to BOS. (PIT gets Abel from PHI and maybe something from us.)

In LF, maybe. He's played 18 innings in CF since 2016. He hasnt has a plus UZR/150 in CF since 2015 (+2.1) and a -1 DRS that year. We need a CF'er or maybe a RF'er NOT another LF'er.

Some of the Best Offensive OF'er vs RHPs since 2018 (that are or may be available): OPS .902 Alex Dickerson .900 Austin Hays .884 C Blackmon .880 S-S Choo .878 Joc Pederson .867 Ian Happ .866 J Soler .841 Corey Dickerson .837 Yasiel Puig .828 Justin Upton (.810 Beni) .807 J Heyward .804 Ozuna .799 B Gradner .786 AL Pollock .777 JBJ .771 Santander/ A McCutchen .756 Wil Myers

If we sign Pillar, we platoon Beni & Renfore in LF- the position both belong. If we sign JBJ, we get the lefty bat and the LF platoon, but I would think we might trade Beni, if we spend larger on CF.

Do you think getting Ozuna is realistic? I could see, if JD were a FA after 2021, but he's not.

$5M is less than what it costs to sign a similar player as a FA. Beni's upside is pretty high, hence the reason many of us do NOT want to trade him. He is just now entering the normal peak prime years. Many GMs are not locked into valuing players on just most recent numbers, as they should not be. (The sample size since 8/1/20 is not all that large.)

I've already said, if he's going to be a pen arm, then it makes no sense sending him down, since he'll end up with under 120 IP anyway. If they start him, we can limit his innings a few ways: 1) Pitch count and less IP/GS (may tax the pen more than wanted) 2) Limit the amount of GS'd (maybe allowing him to go deeper in games he does start) If we choose #2, then sending him to AAA for 7 weeks would do the trick while adding a year of service.

But if his age 26 season needs to be limited in IP'd, anyway, what's the issue?

Why not? We are not the only team with several holes to fill and several options still out there. (I hope we don't trade him, unless the return looks like a clear win- doubtful.)