moonslav59

Yes, and sometimes the odds-makers make the much better team the prohibitive favorite to win a series- sometimes higher odds than many NBA series. Just because the worst record team wins a WS every now and then, doesn't make the odds random. If it was random, Vegas would be losing millions to people betting the dog every game.

Toronto.

I see the exact opposite position over the past 5 years. 50 teams made the playoffs, and only 5 were best record teams, yet the best record team won 60% of them (3 of 5). You'd expect zero or one, if it was totally random.

So, if you divide the playoff teams into two groups: the better half vs the worse half, you'd call a 55% to 45% split a "crap shoot?" How about a 60-40 split? A 2 to 1 split? Well, 78% have won the WS in the last 9 years. Maybe it used to be somewhat random, but it is not anymore. Even more convincing, about the last 9 seasons, 4 of the 9 WS winners were the best record teams. Total randomness would predict about 1. Okay,maybe you can claim "small sample size." Something I have used often, but times have changed. The rich have gotten obscenely richer and better.

It's amazing how they can lose Kluber, Clevinger, Bauer &Carrasco and still have a good rotation.

He's staying in Japan. -MLBTR

Every GM will not have the spending budget Bloom will likely have. Therein lies the difference.

Again, I'm not saying wait until the very end. There will be plenty of decent players signing later in the cycle. We don't need to sign Bauer, Springer, DJ or Realmutto to add serious value without busting our budget.

No, 27 are not. Many will not be signing anybody for much more than min wage. I'm not saying wait until the day before opening day, but waiting will probably turn out to be the "smart" thing do do, both in terms of financial bargains found, but also maximizing your value. The Sox have such a pitiful bottom of their 40 man roster and a pretty weak bottom of their 26 man roster. They could do better finding 4-6 bargain gems than going for just 2-4 higher cost flashy guys.

Seems to me like waiting may be highly efficient.

Cleveland will receive two prominent young infielders in Amed Rosario and Andres Gimenez and a pair of Mets prospects — right-hander Josh Wolf and outfielder Isaiah Greene. -MLBTR

Dumped half a contract.

The Mets are going all in.

He's not great, but he's been pretty steady: Not counting 2020... 28-33 starts for 6 straight seasons. 159-188 IP each of those 6 seasons ERA+ between 95 and 117 the last 5 seasons with only that one season below 102 (2018). His WHIP has been between 1.15 and 1.24 the last 5 years, except in 2018 (1.345). His career ERA is 3.92 and FIP of 4.12. He walks a few too many batters (3.1 BB/9), but he K's close to 9 per 9 IP (8.6). From 2015-2020, he is 32nd in IP. Out of 77 pitchers with 600+ IP in the last 6 years, he places: 39th in fWAR at 11.6 (about 1.9 per season) 25th in WHIP at 1.23 (same as Trevor bauer, J Paxton and Sonny Gray) 35th in ERA- at 92 40th in K-BB% at 14.5% 65th in xFIP at 4.53 If you figure 30 number one starters in MLB, ranking 39th in WAR could be viewed as him being a solid #2 starter. I'd say he is easily a solid #3.

He will also turn 41 before the season starts.

So, if career WAR is your choice of value, Sale is better than anyone on the Yanks. Erod Rocks, too. You know there is more to judging value and projected value than career WAR and just fWAR from a shortened season. I can see why you choose the 4 year fWAR sample, not 1, 2 or 3 of bWAR... bWAR: 2020 Eovaldi 1.3/ Montgomery 0.1 bWAR: 2019-2020: Eovaldi 1.3/ Montgomer 0.0 bWAR: 2018-2020: Eovaldi 2.1/ Montgomer 0.5 Montgomery beats Eovaldi 2.9 to 2.1 from '17-'20 in bWAR.)

RED=most contract years over 30... 5 Sale 31-35 years old/contract began '20 4 Eovaldi 28-31/ '19 (1.3 bWAR in 2 yrs) 7 Price 30-35/ '16 (10.5 bWAR in 1st 4 yrs) 4 Porcello 27-30/ '16 (1.4 bWAR) 4 Buchholz 27-30/ '12 (5.9 bWAR) 5 Lackey 31-35/ '10 (3.4 bWAR 1 w STL, but then 8.7 next 2 yrs after contract) 5 Lester 25-29/ '09 (18.6 bWAR) 3 Beckett 27-29/ '07 (9.3 bWAR) 3 Clement 30-32/ '05 (0.3 bWAR in 2 yrs) 4 Foulke 31-34/ '04 (4.1 WAR in 3 yrs)

Best Sox pitchers by fWAR since 2002 by age groups: (note: this is an imperfect way to view age groups, as some pitchers were not with the Sox for the full time period.) 22-25 10.8 Lester (91) 7.0 ERod (88) 4.9 Buch (62) 3.6 Doubront (59) 26-29 15.2 Beckett (122) 13.8 Sale (59) 13.2 Lester (129) 11.3 Porcello (127) 8.0 Dice-K (98) 6.2 B Arroyo (61) 5.6 Buch (87) 4.6 Lowe (32) 3.7 ERod (34) 3.2 Pom (56) 2.7 Miley (32) 2.3 Kelly (41) 30-33 19.7 Pedro (92 GS) 10.6 Price (98) 6.1 Beckett (72) 4.6 Lowe (66) 4.2 Lackey (61) 3.8 Lester (21) 3.7 Buch (39) 3.6 Sale (25) 34-37 7.7 Wakefield (78) 6.5 Schilling (32) 4.5 Lackey (50) 1.8 Burkett (29) 38+ 8.6 Schilling (66) 7.8 Wakefield (138) 6.1 Uehara (0) 3.0 Wells (30) 2.7 Burkett (30)

How many pitchers had one good season, even if it was their first and only one, and never turned out very good? He's a question mark. A big one. So is Eovaldi. If I had to choose one for just 2021, it's a close call.

"The only way?"

He's only had 29 starts or 155 IP in a season, once, and you criticize Eovaldi for "only" having 2 seasons with 27 or more starts. Yes, a much longer career, but can we wait to see if he ever does it again, before we anoint him a work horse? Now, most starters have one really bad game each season, but it seems like Eovaldi has had an extra bad start each season from 2013-2015? bWAR has Eovaldi with a 2.3 (2015) and a 2.1 season (2013). Yes, Montgomery had a 2.9 season his rookie year. 2013: 3 IP 9 ER (Take away & his ERA goes from 3.39 to 2.62) 2014: 4 IP 8 ER (Take away & his ERA goes from 4.37 to 4.09) 2015: .2 IP 8 ER (Take away & his ERA goes from 4.20 to 3.74) Montgomery's worst game in his big year was 6 ER in 6 IP. If you took that away, his ERA would go from 3.88 to 3.62. Of course, one could claim cherry-picking methodology, and the point would have merit, but Eovaldi had a very nice 3 year stretch from 2013 to 2015, and his stretch in 2018, including the playoffs was not only excellent, but it was a pretty large sample size, when compared to any Montgomery season but one. Last 13 games of 2018 regular season (60 IP/21 ER) 3.15 ERA. 6 playoff games (4 as RP'er): (22.1 IP/4 ER) 1.61 ERA Combine: 82.1 IP 25 ER 2.77 ERA The guy can pitch very well for some extended periods of time. He's certainly had many bad stretches and missed time. He's a huge question mark, but so is Montgomery.

Not really all that good for several years before 2020, too. UZR/150 from 2014-2019: +0.9. That's 8 years! (To be fair, he had a +38 DRS those 8 years.)

Is he healthy? Is he still near GG level?

If we could find a gold glove level RF'er- maybe, but I don't see any of them on the market.

Surely, you don't think it's a literal crap shoot where every team has exactly the same chance of winning. Yes, enough bottom seed teams have won it all to feel the chance of anyone winning is real, but the better teams win significantly more than lower seeds, especially the last 9 years.