moonslav59

I can see how someone might think expecting much or even anything from Sale, this year, is wishful thinking, but it's not absurd to expect good seasons from ERod, Eovaldi, Richards and decent seasons from Perez, Pivetta and Houck. Expecting all 6 to be healthy and do well is asking too much, of course, but if 3-4 can do well until Sale comes back, or if 4-5 do well with Sale never coming back, we can easily make the playoffs. I don't expect anything more than that, but our line-up has a chance to make-up for some weak areas.

I've never believed in the "crap shoot" theory and provided evidence that it is just not true. Any body that thinks this Sox team can win it all in 2021 is smoking something I wish I had.

Before I take a stab at your query, I want to point out that your 1458 IP point is a little misleading. In 2019, the Mets starters led MLB in IP with 941 IP. The 15th place team pitched 860 IP, so 623/860 looks a lot better than 623/1458. Plus, fangraphs is notorious for underestimating pitchers IP for all teams- not just the Sox. I'm not expecting 200+ IP from any Sox starter, but we have 7 SP'ers capable of giving 100+ IP, except for maybe Sale, and none of them seem all that bad. Here's my guess, at this point: GS/IP Pitcher 27/170 ERod 26/170 Eovaldi 26/170 Richards 26/130 Perez 22/90 Pivetta 22/90 Houck 13/60 Sale That gets us close to the mean for starters in 2019. Of course, some on this list will get less,but some could get more.

I'm crazy, then. It's not even close. 2018-2020 Paxton 27-13 3.97 331 IP Walker 4-3 2.81 67 IP (How is this "eating innings?") Teheran 19-24 4.39 382 IP (Wow, 51 more IP over 3 seasons) If this makes me crazy, I'm a loon. Odorizzi is my first choice. Paxton is a distant second. Teheran is a distant 3rd- close to Porcello. Walker is not even on my list.

If we knew we could just barely make the playoffs by signing Odorizzi, Rosenthal & Pillar or JBJ (maybe going over the line by $15-20M), but are bounced early, would it still be worth it? Assume a reset is planned after 2-4 years going over the limit, and by going over this season, we push forward the reset year by one.

I only listed players who have done something at the ML level in the last few years. This post was not about what might be to come as much as it was about what our current players have already done, recently. If nobody has a career year but just repeats a season like 2018, 2019 or 2020, here's the best we would have: 1. Beni .830 2. Verduo .844 3. Bogey .939 4. Devers .916 5. JD M 1.031 6. Dalbec .959 7. Renfroe .805 8. Vazquez .801 9. Hernandez .806 Now, I'm not saying everyone can or will repeat their best seasons, all at once, but given teh ages of many of these players, it's not outlandish to think many can or will do just that OR BETTER! What we might get fro Arroyo, Chavis, Downs, Duran, Houck, Seabold and Mata could end up being significant, but I was just focusing on what we know we have. The rotation is certainly more of a long shot, as injuries are a major factor in what happens in 2021, but we can see some very good recent numbers from many of our SP'er.

Plus, despite "oversighting Perez" the people he chose to list as "being around for a reason" are not even on the top of the starter depth list. He "forgot" Houck, Andriese & Whitlock, too. Here's my view of our SP'er depth chart: Sale (60 day IL?) ERod Eovaldi Richards Perez Pivetta Houck Andriese Whitlock Mata Seabold Mazza Gossett Hart Weber Hall/Springs

Since no key player on the Sox is older than 34, except Ottavino at 35, I have to think it is not impossible for many of our players to put up numbers at or near, or even higher than the numbers thay have put up recently. Below are the best seasons by current Sox players from 2018-2020, unless otherwise noted in blue. I will also include their current age to highlight how few players are past or significantly past prime years. Past prime but not by a lot 34 JD Martinez ('18) .330 43 130 (1.031 OPS) In peak prime years 30 Vazquez ('20) .801 OPS [('19) .276 23 72 (.798)] 30 HRs in last 655 ABs 29 Renfroe ('18) .248 26 68 (.805) [Hit 33 HRs in '19 in just 440 ABs] 29 Hernandez ('18) .256 21 52 (.806) 28 Bogaerts ('19) .309 33 117 (.939) 26 Benintendi ('18) .290 16 87 (.830) Just entering prime or peak prime 25 Dalbec ('20) .263 8 16 in 92 PAs [162 avg: .263 56 113] 24 Verdugo ('20) .308 6 15 (.844) ['19-'20 combined: .300 18 59 (.827)] 24 Devers ('19) .311 32 115 (.916) There are some amazing numbers listed here, and all 9 players have been over .800 in the last 3 seasons. Now, the Rotation ERA/WHIP: Past prime but not by a lot 32 Richards ('18) 3.66/1.284 in 76 IP [('14) 13-4 2.61/1.038 & 15-12 3.65/1.240 in '15] In prime years 31 Sale ('18) 2.11/0.861 [('17) 17-8 2.90- 2nd in CYA] 30 Eovaldi ('20) 3.72/1.200 or ('18) 3.81/1.126 [('15) 14-3 4.20/1.451] 29 Perez ('20) 4.50/1.339 [('16) 10-11 4.39/ 1.414] 27 Rodriquez ('19) 19-6 3.81/1.328 [('18) 13-5 3.82/1.265] 27 Pivetta ('18) 7-14 4.77/1.305 Just entering prime or peak prime 24 Houck ('20) 3-0 0.53/0.882 in just 17 IP

Yes, you are right. I scrolled down to $5M on the lux tax line and didn't see him. He is listed below some making under $5M. Okay, that means we have about $8M to spend. We could sign a cheap RP'er and maybe someone who can play CF well or 2B by moving EHern to CF. We might want to keep $1-3M for deadline moves, so maybe we'll be able to spend $5-6M before opening day.

The thing that is different about this season and 2013, is that we don't really need any career best seasons from anyone, although we could see Devers, Verdugo, Bogey, Beni and maybe even someone else do just that. We just need enough players to do somewhere near what they have already done in the past 2-3 years (maybe 5-6 years for Richards). It's not a lot to ask or expect. The main issue is the health of Sale, ERod, Eovaldi & Richards. To me, the return to form of JD and Beni are important, but not as much as the health of our rotation.

If we are going to stay under the tax line, which is no sure thing, we only have about $3M to spend, unless we dump some salary somewhere. cots does not have the Perez signing listed and has us with $8M to spend. Also, using everything we have left, leaves us nothing for deadline moves that add salary.

The Blue Jays might not be done adding players. If the Yanks are really staying under the tax line, they are done adding.

fangraphs projected team WAR Are we just an Odorizzi and/or Rosenthal away from being a top 5 AL team? 51.0 NYY 42.5 TOR 42.2 MN 41.6 HOU 39.4 CWS 37.4 LAA 36.7 BOS 34.0 TBR 34.0 OAK 31.2 CLE (They do have us with the 5th best rotation in the AL.)

He did okay in 2019. People are acting like the 60 game season of 2020 determines who you will be forever.

Shouldn't we try to fill gaping holes, first?

Odorizzi & Paxton are better. Rosenthal would be a better get at closer than one of those two.

Anybody but Price, even at $5M x 2.

It's been so long since a top five Yankee team. Let him wallow.

Beni will be fine.

.781 is NOT mashing. Beni is better vs RHPs.

I am. So many unanswered questions. I can't wait and hope many answers are good ones.

I'm done with Price.

Agreed, however signing someone like Odorizzi to 3 years fits into the plan, too, but maybe Bloom is not that high on him, so I won't bash him for passing on this years' 3+ year FAs. If we don't start spending next winter, my tune may change.

I wasnt really thinking of it as Pedro leaving. His departure was nothing like that of Betts, Lynn or Fisk.

Hell, YES!