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moonslav59

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Everything posted by moonslav59

  1. moonslav59
    We’d be over the tax line.
  2. moonslav59
    Out of 31 not really
  3. moonslav59
    In all honesty, I'd take Rizzo over a Dalbec platoon with Cordero/Arroyo, but not by all that much. The cost of trading for Rizzo would make it a clear net minus.
  4. moonslav59
    Pivetta and Perez are a major reason we are in first place. These two were our 5th and 6th starters, going into this year. (1 Sale, 2 ERod, 3 Eovaldi, 4 Richards) We are 24-16 in their starts. That's a 60% win percentage! Our record with our 1-4 starters (counting 0-0 by Sale) is almost the same (.608).
  5. moonslav59
    The Rays continue to surprise.
  6. moonslav59
    He might be close to being "all done." I don't know. I also don't know if Dalbec is "all done." OPS since June 5th: .733 Dalbec .698 Rizzo I'm not against trading for a 1Bman or a platoon 1Bman. I'm just not all gah-gah over Rizzo. 2020-2021 .756 Rizzo (22 Hrs 59 RBI in 593 PAs) .737 Dalbec (18 HRs52 RBI in 366 PAs)
  7. moonslav59
    I'm a big Porcello fan and think he's closer to very good than mediocre. I'd say he was just plain "good." The innings pitched factor is hard to quantify, especially if you view his ERA+ or ERA-, WHIP and other stats as looking mediocre and think more innings of mediocre is valuable, but not "very good." Here's another way to look ay Porcello's numbers from 2009-2020. Let's look at just the 31 pitchers with 1500+ IP. Here's how Rick places in this group: 14th fWAR 23rd SIERA 24th xFIP 27th ERA- 27th WHIP
  8. moonslav59
    Yes. His high fWAR ranking is almost totally based on his high IP'd.
  9. moonslav59
    That's his best ranking. Other categories show him in the middle or even below average. Some better pitchers of his era did very well before 2009 or are doing well in 2021, but those stats are left out. His IP'd gives him more value than many want to give him. Innings are enormously valuable, even if mediocre or slightly above average, but many of his stats show him below average. I think he was good. I can see why people can view him as mediocre or slightly above average or even "very good."
  10. moonslav59
    I'm not getting all the love for Rizzo. I think some Sox fans remember how good he was and how he used to be our prospect and want him back. I'm not sure he's even an upgrade over Dalbec/Cordero/Arroyo/Kike/Santana/Marwin.
  11. moonslav59
    Yes, and I mentioned how he has changed from 2-3 years ago, but this is the sample size since the changes: 0.53 in 2020 (MLB but just 21 IP) 5.14 in 2021 (AAA 21 IP- same sample size as 2020 MLB one) 2.50 in 2021 (MLB in 18 IP) The AAA sample size of 2021 (5.14 ERA) is the same ip as his 2020 MLB sample size of 0.53 and more than his 2021 MLB sample size of 18 IP and 2.50 ERA. More innings are needed. Batters will learn what he is about and he may need to adjust to their adjustments. I'm very hopeful and don't want to sound pessimistic. I'm just being cautious- same as I am when things look bad.
  12. moonslav59
    I'd say between good and very good, but more good. He was elite that one season and mediocre to good all the others.
  13. moonslav59
    I'm fine with Marwin on the roster. I just don't think he should be the #2 at any position. His value is being a highly flexible last man off the bench. He was clearly Cora's favorite, and I can't blame him for liking him, especially being with him during his great Houston season. He was already seeing less playing time than when the season started, then Kike and Arroyo went on the IL at the same time. Ideally, we should have other bench players as the #2 or #3 at all positions. Marwin should be the #3 or #4 at several positions. That's his value.
  14. moonslav59
    I do, too. I think Whitlock projects to be a better starter, and Houck could be a nasty set up man who can give 2 and maybe even 3 IP here and there.
  15. moonslav59
    I really like Houck, and he's upped his game a lot from 2-3 years ago, but this sample size of good pitching is still rather small. I'm not trying to rain on anyone's parade, but he needs more IP'd to know he's a certain mainstay on our staff. Here are his numbers: 5.64 in 2017 (A- 22IP) 5.14 in 2018 (A+ 119 IP) 4.35 in 2019 (AA & AAA 108 IP) 0.53 in 2020 (MLB but just 21 IP) 5.14 in 2021 (AAA 21 IP- same sample size as 2020 MLB one) 2.50 in 2021 (MLB in 18 IP) He's got 35 IP in MLB and a 1.54 ERA/ 1.029 WHIP
  16. moonslav59
    Thanks Bloom! (DD did better than we thought and better than our slot, too.)
  17. moonslav59
    I think some people have different ideas on what "mediocre," "good," and "very good" mean. To me, mediocre means you have about the same amount of players better and worse than you. Clearly, Porcello had way more worse. Good might mean top 40%. Very good, top 25-30%. Excellent, top 10-25%. Elite, top 5 or 10%. (IMO) If I lower the IP to 300 IP to get to a 300 SP'er sample size, Porcello places 126th in SIERA at 4.10. 95th in xFIP- at 96. The guy was a good pitcher. Not great. Not elite. Not bad. Not really mediocre, either.
  18. moonslav59
    I know you like Perez. I just used your post to further your argument.
  19. moonslav59
    Richards is the weak link not Perez. At times, Perez has looked like our best starter, and I'm not talking a 3-4 game stretch. From opening day to June 3rd, he was our best starter. That was 11 starts or 1/3 of a season! 3.09 ERA From 4/23 to 6/7 (8 starts) he was on fire 2.22 ERA .614 OPS Against After that 7.2 IP game in Houston, where maybe they left him in too long, he's gone ... 4-4 6.23 ERA 1.024 OPS Against in 8 starts. That's not even worth a minor league deal.
  20. moonslav59
    Only 4 of those 7 low-inning starts were bad. He was yanked one time after 3.2 innings with no earned runs allowed. Sure, it would have been nice for him to go 5, but 3.2 and 0 ER is not "bad." Any starter who can have just 4 bad starts out of 19 is worth way more than $6M. The problem is, his last 8 starts. If he continues at that pace, he's not worth $6M. Let's see what he does over the next 10 weeks.
  21. moonslav59
    His ERA- and WHIP make him a solid #4 (almost a 3). His xFIP makes him a #2. His durability and IP upped his fWAR to make him a solid #1. All together, he is certainly a #3 or maybe a low #2. I'm not downplaying ERA. If I did, he'd be a solid #2. I'm looking at other pitchers in his era. I only counted pitchers with 800+ IP. My guess is many who did not reach that threshold were much worse than Rick, ut some would be better. Compared to other starters of his time, he was a clear #3. On a good playoff team, you'd like to see him be your #4, ut that doesn't make him one overall.
  22. moonslav59
    Good night.
  23. moonslav59
    Not sure what that means. The armchair managers are pampered, too. Baseless and often misdirected bashing is constant and often absurd. So, is it the pampered players deserve being bashed? What am I missing?
  24. moonslav59
    To me, the biggest mistake, besides waiving in Dalbec, was Dalbec not tagging up and going to 3B on the sac fly play to the plate. Duran does not score from 2B on that IF hit. My point though, is that even if he would, it does not mean it's a mistake by Cora. The game is not over in the 7th. Dalbec got a key hit in the 9th. Maybe Duran hits into a DP.
  25. moonslav59
    We often rise up when facing aces. ERod has been on a roll. Can't make running blunders, tonight. Can't make costly defensive mistakes. Make the hits count. GO SOX!
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