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moonslav59

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Everything posted by moonslav59

  1. moonslav59
    Why did we expect a B? His last 3 seasons with Detroit. His final grade was a B- or C+. He was a B from 2016-2018. An F or D in Ben & DD's final seasons. I don't think it's sugar coating to discount a pitchers first 3 seasons, especially at ages 20-22, when you have 3 full seasons of sample size from ages 23-25. There is no doubt, his 2015 season was an outlier, in this context. When you count what he did in his 3 years afterwards, it is even clearer. Ages: 23-25 good (4.08) 26 bad (4.92) 27-29 good (3.99) You can call it cherry-picking, but those are the meat of most any pitcher's career, and it is usual to expect a bell curve and not a low spike right at the peak of prime.
  2. moonslav59
    Barnes: Career 4.3 PA against per IP 18.7 pitches per IP 2021 3.5 PA against per IP 14.6 pitches per IP He's on pace to break his personal high for IP (72 to 69.1), but at this pace, he'll have faced way less batters and pitched way less pitches than several seasons.
  3. moonslav59
    Because you discounted Hill's 29 IP 4 GS sample size, but used Houck's 3 GS and 17 IP sample size as the be-all-end-all. Either 17 to 29 IP sample size count a lot or they don't. Personally, I don't count either as much.
  4. moonslav59
    I'm rooting for the Rays again, tomorrow. I hope they take 3 of 4 or sweep. Think of it this way: even if the Rays are for real, we can beat out the Yanks for the WC slot!
  5. moonslav59
    I'm not saying it will, but there has been good reason to fire Boone several times over the last few years. How many lives does this guy have? At some point, the plug needs to pulled. Your 2021 expectations may have been higher than deserved, but this team is better than this. He deserved to be fired before, this. This should be the final straw. Cut the chord.
  6. moonslav59
    The Rays won the division, last year, by going 40-20. That's a nice record. They are 35-20, now. Last year, they did lose 5 straight and 6 of 7 during one stretch. They won 96 games in 2019, while going 12-17 in a 30 day stretch and 9-12 in another stretch shortly after the first one I mentioned. They won 90 games in 2018, after being just 1 game over .500 on August 8th. This team can be streaky.
  7. moonslav59
    It's final: TB 3 NYY 1
  8. moonslav59
    The Rays going 16-1 is simply amazing! Of course, it's unsustainable, but teams that have stretches like this often go on to great endings. The Sox has a 17-1 stretch in 2018, after our opening day loss. We ended up going 90-52 afterwards, which was still fantastic. I'm not sure the Rays can pull that off, especially in this year's ALE.
  9. moonslav59
    The buck stops with Boone and Cashman. Firing Boone would be a bigger and better message and wake-up call.
  10. moonslav59
    Are you forgetting your Houck comp with Garcia? You certainly counted that 17 IP sample size as the over-riding factor to everything else. There's nothing else in his favor. BTW, if he can pitch half as well as Hill, we have a keeper.
  11. moonslav59
    I never said Porcello was better than Mediocre. My point was his 2015 season of 4.92 was out of sync by almost as much as 2016 was. If you want to count his age 20-22 seasons against him, fine. His 4.08 ERS in his last 3 seasons with Detroit at ages 23-25 were what I expected from Porcello with Boston as he "reached his prime years. Instead we got 4.92. 4.92 -4.08 0.84 4.08 -3.15 His Cy Young year 0.94 Pretty close to the same outlier status for both seasons, right? His 3.15 ERA in 2016 was closer to his 2014 number than his 4.92 season of 2015 was. Porcello was with the Sox for his peak prime years. He gave us 3.99 from 2016-2018 (3 seasons), then his bad 2019 season helped lead to DD's demise, as well. He was a very good 3-5 slot pitcher who had his worst year in Ben's final season. Others sucked that year, too. That's all I'm saying. Timing.
  12. moonslav59
    soxprospects.com delayed their start of season rankings until May. Here's how it shakes out with changes from Fall, 2020 included: 1. Casas (same) 2. Downs (same) 3. Duran (up 1) 4. Whitlock (n/a) 5. Houck (up 2) 6. Jimenez (down 1) 7. Seabold (n/a) 8. Ward (same) 9. A Ramirez (up 1) 10. Yorke (up 3) 11. Mata (down 8) 12. Song (down 1) 13. Groome (down 1) 14. Ro Hernandez (n/a) 15. M Lugo (up 1) 16. Bonaci (down 2) 17. Jordan (up 2) 18. Wong (up 4) 19. Bazardo (??) 20. Rosario (??) Other newer prospects in the top 40: 22. Potts 24. Winckowski (I expected a higher ranking, here) 29. F German 30. J Wallace 36. Bleis
  13. moonslav59
    I'm talking about judging how good a pitcher is based on 17 and 29 IP sample sizes- not comparing who has a better future. You think a 17 IP sample size by Houck in 2020 over-rides a totally lackluster minor league career and ho-hum 2021 start. You claimed Ben did not know pitching. I'm not claiming he was a pitching genius but merely pointed out that a confluence of outlier bad seasons by several pitchers in 2015 helped lead to his end with the Sox. I'm not claiming Porcello should have pitched like Cy Young in 2015, but only that if you flipped 2016 with 2015, Ben would likely have been given another year. That's just one guy out of many that sucked more in 2015 than any or almost any other season in the careers of several key Sox pitchers. I think the facts speak for themselves, but obviously, you don't, which is fine. I'm glad we have Bloom, too. I like him better than DD and Ben.
  14. moonslav59
    I'm not saying Porcello should have pitched like a Cy Young pitcher every year. That's foolish thinking, but he was 1.50 over his previous season's ERA with Detroit and 0.80 over his previous 3 year average in 2015. Had he pitched at 4.08 instead of 4.92, it would have made a big difference, due to the amount of innings he always pitched. 4.59 4.43 3.43 4.92 Ben's last year w BOS 3.15 4.65 4.28 If he was the only pitcher underforming, no big deal, but he wasn't.
  15. moonslav59
    Thinking you could et by with that horrific defense at a position like SS should be enough to get Boone and Cashman fired, by itself. I guess the Jeter example blinded Yankee management. For those who think great pitching is all you need to win, this Yankee team is doing it's best to provide evidence to the contrary. This Yankee pen is legendary great. Their starters are top 5 in MLB. Yet, they suck.
  16. moonslav59
    What do you mean Hill did not pan out? We picked him up late in a season and he did great in 4 starts. He signed as a FA that next winter and did very well afterwards. How does that show Ben did NOT know pitching? Yes, I compared Hill to Houck, because you went all gah-gah over a 17 IP sample size in 2020 for Houck but pooh-pooh'd Hill's larger sample size of great pitching. Hill has a 2.99 ERA and 1.059 WHIP since 2015.
  17. moonslav59
    Good to see JD back. I like how Santana is the rover platoon guy for Dalbec, Arroyo (Kike to 2B) and Renfroe. By moving people around, he can spell anyone but our catchers. Marwin has done a good job, defensively, but that sub .600 OPS is unsustainable. Kike has basically become a FT OF'er due to Cordero's struggles and the nice job Arroyo has done at 2B. The flexibility this team has should help us in the long run of a 162 game season. We've also done a good job limiting the innings of all our pitchers, except Barnes, but even he is on pace for 72 innings- just 3 more than his career high, and he's pitching less pitches per inning than ever before, so even his pace is fine.
  18. moonslav59
    It's hard to know what COVID did to ERod. Anecdotal evidence shows some people get better, then relapse then get better and relapse again. Maybe Erod finds some strength, again, but yes, he's a hard one to project and is on the wrong side trend. Eovaldi, also started out stronger than he looks now, but he's still going 6 IP almost every start. His OPS against and K-BB rates are still looking strong.
  19. moonslav59
    The Yankee offense is just horrific. Blame it on injuries, dead balls and batting coaches or whatever, but they just plain suck.
  20. moonslav59
    They have a way of getting career years out of long time marginal or oft-injured good players.
  21. moonslav59
    Porcello had a 4.30 ERA with Detroit, including a 4.08 ERS his last 3 years there and 3.43 before comin to the Sox. He went 4.92 under Ben, then 3.15 in his Cy Young year, the year after Ben left. Timing. Had Porcello had his 2016 season in 2015, Ben would have stayed another year or more. Wade Miley had very good road numbers with AZ, before we got him. Hisd 4.46 ERA was way higher than his 3.79 ERA in 4 seasons with AZ. He was not a 4.4 pitcher, and still isn't. He's been at 3.63 the last 4 years combined. Timing. Buch had some excellent seasons with the Sox, including 2013 with Ben as GM. His career ERA was 3.98, but he went 5.34 in 2014 and only pitched half a season in 2015. Timing
  22. moonslav59
    Funny how you say 4 GS'd and 29 IP with a 1.55 ERA by Hill is not much, but Houck's 3 GS'd and 17 IP is enough to make a judgment on. The next season, Hill pitched 110 IP (2.25 ERA), then started 25 and 24 games the next 2 years. The fact is, Ben knew pitching. He just lucked out on the timing.
  23. moonslav59
    I really wanted the Sox to get Taillon. He may still turn things around, but he has looked pretty bad, this year. The year of the dead ball.
  24. moonslav59
    He makes lots of monthly all star teams. His issue has always been not going full seasons.
  25. moonslav59
    3 starts in 2020. That's it. Yes, that was encouraging, but come on. 17 innings tell next to nothing.
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