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moonslav59

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Everything posted by moonslav59

  1. moonslav59
    It's you that won't listen. It's about proportionality. If one catcher catches better pitchers more often than the others, some exclusively with just one, the numbers are apples vs oranges. Of the 9 pitchers with 50+ PAs with both catchers, 5 were RP'ers and 4 SP'ers. (ERod is only caught br Vaz.) Yes, Vaz does slightly better with the pitchers with smaller sample sizes than 50, but it's still Plawecki 10-7 with the top 17 pitchers with 20+ PAs with both catchers. By itself, this is not earth-shattering, but when every season reveals the same thing, those ignoring it are the ones "not listening." It's not like Plawecki is some boy wonder. Leon blew Vaz away. It's more about Vaz's short-comings than anything special by Plawecki. That's why I'm fine with replacing Plawecki (and Vaz, too). Defense starts at catcher and SS.
  2. moonslav59
    Here are the updated BTV values for our best players: 77 Devers 54 Casas 42 Houck 41 Verdugo 34 Mayer 32 Bogey 23 Duran 19 Eovaldi & Yorke 12 Downs & Taylor 11 Kike & Jimenez 9 Pivetta 6 Mata 5 Dalbec, Bello, Renfroe, Whitlock, Jordan 4 Groome, Barnes, Arroyo 3.5 Seabold, Winckowski 3 McDonough, R Hern, Rosario 2.5 Bonaci, Lugo, Ward, Bleis, Potts, Valdez, Wong, Decker 2 Murphy Note: only 7 players between 6 and 23 and 9 between 5 and 34. I'd put Whitlock near Houck, Dalbec near Pivetta and Mayer way higher. Overrated? Perhaps Duran and Rosario- maybe Downs, who slipped from over 20 to 12.
  3. moonslav59
    True, but maybe part of the reason BOS and BAL allow so many runs is because they face the rays and Jays almost 25% of their games. The stat that does it for me is the BAbip. If ours was at .300, our pitching would look great.
  4. moonslav59
    I'd add Downs & Duran to that list and would guess one of the 4 is traded this winter or at the deadline in 2022. I'm not projecting an emptying of the farm, but a strategic deal here or there seems likely.
  5. moonslav59
    The ERA can be misleading, too. ERA last 14 starts 3.46 Stroman 3.88 ERod
  6. moonslav59
    Agreed. Talk to Bogey, this winter. If he's looking for Lindor money, consider trading him before all we get is a comp pick.
  7. moonslav59
    I'm not a big Plawecki fan. I think he gets more from the pitchers than Vaz, but there are other catchers that can do that or even better. I do value pitch framing and blocking bad pitches, but if robo umps come about, that won't be a factor. I have liked Vaz, but have felt his offense outweighs his poor staff handling, but this year, yikes! If it were up to me, I might trade Vaz and non tender Plawecki. Sign a guy known for his defense and handling a staff and go with Wong/Hernandez as the back-up. (maybe sign a cheap vet)
  8. moonslav59
    Well, he's still .974 in Sept (14 PAs). Also, Marwin only has 47 PAs since July 11th.
  9. moonslav59
    If the BTV site has any value, they currently have JD at -4.4 value. Since he makes $19.3M, next year, I guess they place his value at about $15M/1. Would anyone here trade JD +$4M for a distant prospect with little hope? Would anyone trade him +$8M for a decent pitcher with $4M value (like a pitcher similar to Seabold or Groome)? Another idea might be to trade him for a high-priced pitcher worth about $4M less than his salary. This could be done with the idea of signing Schwarber using some of the savings.
  10. moonslav59
    Santana is giving us an MVP stretch that is better than Marwin's 22 PAs with HOU. Last 23 PAs: .948 OPS 1 2B 2 HRs 4 RBI 3 BB
  11. moonslav59
    Nobody said it was fun, but 4 rings sure was! We've actually had the 3 worst and 4 of our worst 8 seasons in the last 9 years (2012-2020). We also had 2 rings in those 9 years. I'll take this 9 year stretch vs any other stretch not covering 2004-2007.
  12. moonslav59
    Maybe, but it's a 22 PA sample size that was at .676 before last night. He had these stretches with the Sox: .696 in 27 PAs in April. 1.020 in 22 PAs later in April. .878 in 25 PAs in May. 1.108 in 16 PAs in June .765 in 36 PAs at the end of June into July.
  13. moonslav59
    It's not about that. It's about offering him an arb or not. If he takes it, makes $1.8M in arb, we pay him that after he is unclaimed in waivers or the difference if taken after he clears waivers..
  14. moonslav59
    We gave up trying to hold runners over a decade ago. It's not even something we talk about.
  15. moonslav59
    He's a FA, so should not be on this list.
  16. moonslav59
    Boston ranks 20th in the majors in starter ERA (4.57). Manager Alex Cora said he’s not concerned about the starting pitching. 1. The NL starters face a pitcher not a DH. 2. Park dimensions matter. 3. Disparity in strength of opponent offenses matters. Most runs scored: 1. HOU 806 2. TBR 806 3. TOR 789 4. BOS .776 (5 teams 724-757) (5 teams 679-694) (5 teams 654-671) (5 teams 630-650) 26. BAL 620 (4 teams 554-595) Starter ERA- 14th Sox (7th out of 15 in AL) We replaced Perez and Richards with Sale and Houck. We are not great in this area, but I think we are better than our ERA shows and improved over what we saw in the middle of 2020. All this, despite our defense being putrid. (Yes, it's not just about earned vs unearned runs.) BAbip .329 BOS .317 KCR .310 BAL .308 PIT .305 LAA & CHC .301 COL .300 OAK .296 or less, the rest (half the league under .288)
  17. moonslav59
    .426 in 2012 is pretty close to .400 in 2020. I'll take four 2020's and 2 rings every decade over the pre-Henry era. Here are the Sox worst Win% since I started following them in 1972: .400 2020 .426 2012 .438 2014 .451 1992 .470 1994 .481 1997 .481 1987 .481 2015 .500 1985 Only 8 years under .500 in almost a 50 year stretch. The 3 worst and 4 of the worst 8 in the Henry era of almost 20 years. I'll take the last 20 years over the previous 30 everyday of the week. It's not even close. 4 bad years out of 20 vs 4 bad years out of 30 sounds much worse, but the 4 rings make it a landslide choice, for me. Notice: no losing records from 1972 to 1986 and only 1 in the first 20 years. I enjoyed those 14-20 years, but not like the last 20.
  18. moonslav59
    I never said position players, either. Some of the guys you are talking about, here, are not even the ones you mentioned in March. That's a good thing, in some ways, but many of your younger players and ML prospects were let-downs or got injured. The fact is, you have less than 100 IP from any pitcher under 26. 99.1 IP and a 5.07 ERA (.757 OPS Against) Sure, you got value from your 26 year olds: 2.79 in 84 IP Cortes Jr. 2.25 in 68 IP Loaisiga 3.36 in 56 IP M King But, you ranted at the clear edge the yanks had over the Sox in young pitchers and pitching depth. We have nearly double the IP'd by our under 26 pitchers and much better results: 180 IP and 3.03 ERA (.665 OPS Against) Offense under 26? Sox .794 in 1471 PAs Yanks .693 in 499 PAs 26 Y/O's BOS .804 Dalbec in 428 PAs .777 Arroyo in 175 .497 Cordero in 136 NYY .633 Frazier in 218 PAs .667 Andujar in 162 .688 T Wade in 140 .621 Velazquez in 65
  19. moonslav59
    Trash cans.
  20. moonslav59
    The best pop time in ML history won't matter much, if the runners are already on 2nd base when the throw is half way to 2nd.
  21. moonslav59
    It was just a hypothetical. It's not like management can choose an option and build teams accordingly to guarantee a ring every 3-5 year, 8-12 or 13-20. It's impossible, but my choices were from the fan's perspective, what would you prefer. There are certain management strategies that can involve "tanking" a year or two, here and there, and focusing on timing upswings that maximize the recourses for shorter windows and, in theory, increases the odds for more ring years, at the expense of more down years, but that is a slippery slope. I like the strategy we have applied. Some of our "down years" were not really planned, and 2013 was not really an "all-in" ring year, either, but 4 rings is heaven, to me. The last place seasons sucked, but I'd much rather have that than what we had pre-Henry.
  22. moonslav59
    Nobody ever does these types of trades, as they are struggling to cram their best players into 40 slots. They have to really like our players to take 2 for 1, since they must then chop one more guy off their list. BTW, what teams have the weakest 37-40th slots on this winter's roster? (One might place the Sox in the top 10 for slots 39-40.)
  23. moonslav59
    In theory, Beni > Arroyo, but had we played Kike at 2B FT, our OF D would have been much worse. I don't think we really missed Beni, but one can pull up Cordero, Santana and Marwin's numbers and argue otherwise. The money saved was also part of the trade, and we did get 5 guys for him. The jury is still out on them.
  24. moonslav59
    There may be a bidding war based on how valuable you say he is.
  25. moonslav59
    Framing may not matter anymore with robo umps. Pop time matters very little when your staff doesn't care to hold runners or pitch from the stretch.
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