moonslav59
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Everything posted by moonslav59
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Barnes has always walked way too many batter, until this year. His K rate has been one of the best in MLB for several years. He's had a low H/9 and HR/9 rate for years. It's always been the BBs. Look at the rise in his K rate every year but 2020: 8.0 8.2 9.6 10.7 14.0 15.4 12.1 (2020) He's at 14.9, this year. The K% stat is better, because it measure the percent of batters you K, Here are his numbers: 20 20 25 29 36 39 30 (2020) 44 (so far this year) MLB Top K% from 2018-2020 46 J Hader 41 E Diaz 38 M Barnes 37 C Sale 36 L Hendriks & G Cole 35 J Verlander & J DeGrom 34 M Scherzer Some pretty good company.
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Many wanted Duran called up when Bloom thought he was ready. You and others wanted him called up way before now.
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He was on the IL, this year, but he might be one of those borderline players. He may not be on the 2022 forty man roster, along with these non free agent current 40 man roster players: Santana Potts Chavis Arauz Wilson Rosario Rios Workman Andries
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Could we see this sort of playing time structure? Every 10 games 9 Renfroe (sits 1 gms vs RHP- .713 career) RF 8-9 Verdugo (sits 1-2 vs LHP- .687 career) LF/RF 8-9 Kike (sits vs RHPs- career .681 career) CF/2B/1B 8-9 Arroyo (sits vs any- almost identical career .682/.686) 2B 8-9 Duran (sits vs any- close splits in the minors) CF/LF 6-7 Dalbec (sits vs RHPs- .680 career) 1B
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Who get's traded or DFA'd? If nobody is traded, I'd bet Brice or Santana are DFA'd. (Other choices might be Andriese, Rios or Workman.) If it's a trade, maybe it's Marcus Wilson, who was pulled from tonight's line-up.
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Take Kershaw: if you randomly took any 189 IP from his career, do you think they'd all come out very close to his career norm? You think there might be some variations, even wide variations? If your answer is yes, then how do you know that's not what the playoff 189 IP is all about? A variation that happened to be poorer than his norm. If you answer no, then you need to study statistics more. -
Duran was ready to be called up when Bloom called him up. That time is now. Trust in Bloom.
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Kike should play nearly everyday, and he is our best defensive CF'er. Moving him around for Duran better be worth it.
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So, any good hitter who happens to go into a slump during the playoffs proves he's a choke. Any bad to decent hitter who happens to get hot just in time for the playoffs proves he's clutch. Nobody ever gets lucky. It's all skills- based. The facts reveal themselves as they occur.
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2021 MLB draft
moonslav59 replied to jacksonianmarch's topic in MLB Draft, International Signings, Amateur Baseball
Throughthefencebaseball.com -Michael Dault Best Pick: Marcelo Mayer, SS, Eastlake HS (CA) Sleeper Pick: Nathan Hickey, C, Florida (FL) Grade: A+ Overall: I loved Boston’s draft. This might’ve been their best draft since 2011 (minus Matt Barnes). Mayer fell to them and they couldn’t have called in the pick fast enough. Later, they took a chance on Jud Fabian from Florida, who they’ve scouted heavily the past couple years. One of my favorite picks was catcher Nathan Hickey out of Florida too. He was arguable Florida’s best hitter and is overlooked due to stud catching prospects Henry Davis, Harry Ford and Joe Mack. -
2021 MLB draft
moonslav59 replied to jacksonianmarch's topic in MLB Draft, International Signings, Amateur Baseball
Good stuff, mvp. Thanks. -
We'll see. I don't remember many teams looking to sign JD three years ago.
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What do you think of BTV raising Barnes' value from about 2 to 22.5 based on the extension?
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Welcome back!
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BTV has updated their values. Here are the Sox value numbers: Players 97 Devers 52 Bogey 50 Verdugo 23 Barnes (I guess they think the extension was very team friendly.) 12 E Rodriguez 12 Dalbec 11 Vaz 11 Houck 9 Taylor 5 Whitlock & Renfroe 4 D Hernandez & Arroyo 3 JD Martinez 3 K Hernandez & Chavis 2 Eovaldi 1 Perez, Sale, Arauz, Marwin 0 Ottavino, Plawecki & Cordero -1 Sawamura & Andriese -3 Richards Prospects 48 Casas 45 Duran 20 Downs 11 Jimenez 10 Mata 7 R Hernandez & Yorke 5 Seabold 4 Groome, Song, Ward & Bello 3 Ramirez, Winckowski, Rosario, Lugo, Decker & Wilson 2 Bonaci, Jordan, Potts, F Valdez, Wong, Murphy, Lopez, Gonzalez, Bazardo, Cannon, Chacon, Rafaela
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He's made up his mind. There is no luck involved. It's all skill. All season long, players have ups and downs, but when it happens in the playoffs, it is a fact these guys are clutch if they are on an upswing and chokes if on a downswing. It's facts.
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It's not a fact some players have good or bad stats in small samples sizes due to some ghost clutch skill. Randomness would FACTUALLY produce sample sizes like Price & Kershaw and Papi and Reggie. You can't prove the cause anymore than I can. How do you explain Papi's .243 BA in the POs after 2007? Did he lose his skill? Did he suddenly become a choke just because the numbers are "facts?"
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I'm not for this plan, but it would get a 100 OPS at 1B and Duran in the line-up, FT: 1B Kike 100 2B Arroyo 104 LF Verdugo 108 CF Duran ??? RF Renfroe 108
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Arroyo has not solidified his hold on the FT 2B job, but I think he will. He seems to have grit. I suppose we could go with some sort of 5 man rotation at the 4 positions (OF & 2B) with Renfroe & Verdugo playing nearly FT, but maybe we'll just trade someone. I doubt we make a trade until we are more certain about Arroyo and Duran.
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LOL, wait till Dalbec starts hitting .800.
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Here's my new Sox Prospect Rankings (assuming we sign our first fewpicks): 1. Mayer 2. Duran 3. Casas 4. Jimenez 5. Bello 6. Downs 7. Houck 8. Fabian 9. Seabold 10. Mata 11. Yorke 12. Song 13. McDonough 14. Ramirez 15. Winckowski 16. F Valdez 17. Bonaci 18. Groome 19. Wong 20. Rodriguez-Cruz 21. Jordan 22. Rosario 23. R Hernandez 24. Howlett 25. Murphy 26. Lugo 27. Ward 28. Hickey 29. German 30. T Reed
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Looks pretty close. Duran's stock has been soaring, though. Fabian has a pretty high ceiling.
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If he had 10 straight great PO games going forward, you'd then call him clutch. Look, every player has bed stretches. It may be related to luck, injury, strength of opponent or any combination of factors. If some plyer almost always did poorly every Wednesday, you wouldn't call him a Wednesday choke. My point is, how can you tell if the playoff sample sizes aren't just like the Wednesday example or some sign of lacking intestinal fortitude in big games? You can't. I can't prove it isn't either.
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If his agent says he can maybe get $45M/3 by opting out, he may take that over $20M/1 plus what he might get after the 2022 season. With player values still a bit unknown due to the whole COVID thing, you may be right.
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By season end, you may be looking at Kike and Arroyo with rosier glasses. (Maybe not.) I'm just pointing out that the same players blocking Duran, now, will be here, next year. The way things are trending, Kike and Arroyo may be held in higher regard than Verdugo by next April.
