moonslav59

Obviously many fans were upset about losing Betts. I happen to think it might have been more understandable to many fans, had a reasonable second offer been made and made public. I don't care what their reasoning was for not doing so, but IMO, they should have done it. They should have learned from Lester, where the case was a little different due to Lester hinting he'd take a "team discount." Betts never hinted at that.

You seem to think "nothing special" means not fine. It does not. I asked if you thought 2020 was special and you said that's missing the point. The point was about 2020 being "special" or not. Nobody was looking at 2020 and saying it made the signing worth it. He pitched well in 2020 but nothing special. That's all I meant. I'm glad we signed him, now- after 2021 and 2020 did not hurt the position, either.

Why is 2019 so meaningful? 2018: 12 Leon 26 Vaz Maybe the flip in this area led to Leon's departure. Sounds reasonable.

Maybe so. I have never claimed otherwise. I'm not sure many teams look at CERA type data, but the fact that many teams intentionally lock one catcher with certain pitchers shows they believe in some aspect of pitcher-catcher relationships and comfort levels making a difference. It's not all about what pitches a catcher calls, either. It makes a difference. How much is highly debatable. How much the Sox use it is unknown. They may laugh at it like you guys do.

He attacks the outside the zone fringes. He's become pretty successful doing that- much better than earlier in his career, where he barely made it past the 4th inning. The guy is a winner. he keeps the team in games more than almost anyone else. He also bears down with men on base and gets out of many jams. He missed 2020 with serious COVID issues and struggle out of the gate. Over the last 14 starts, he has a 3.97 ERA and a 3.29 FIP, despite having a horrific defense behind him and a .344 BAbip in this time frame. He's at 3.64/3.41 over his last 9 starts I agree, it does not seem like he will ever get past his "nibbler" tendencies, but it works for him and the team.

Well, I said he wasn't "special" in his first 2 seasons of the contract, and you objected to using that term. Saying it wasn't special is not saying it was anything worse than a "wash" or even better than a wash.

I might put Mayer above him, but that's total speculation. Who do you put second and third?

I did not "blame Vaz" for Buch's numbers, but hey, Leon and Vaz were both there for the trending down years. neither was there for his other parts of his career. Leon got 1.33 better during the exact same years.

Again, a very flawed way to use CERA. I think his age, his contract and his declining offense led them to go with a cheaper option. Let's see what they do with Vaz and the $7M.

Plawecki's sample sizes are smaller. Too small to make this study, but in smaller sample size, the trend is continuing. It says more about Vaz than Plawecki and Leon. To say I got on this CERA bandwagon because of Plwecki is just plain wrong. I have been talking about vaz and CERA before I ever heard of a guy named Plawecki. I have also never said CERA is the only aspect of a catcher's defense or the major factor in valuing a catcher. If I did, I'd have been saying bench or trade Vaz starting 4-5 years ago. I bring it up as one tool to measure someone by, and you act like I'm saying it is the be-all-end-all. I'd keep Vaz for next year, if his salary was $2M, so that alone shows you I don't think it is the most important factor. It does matter, though, and it can matter a lot, if the back-up is Leon. It mattered a lot with VTek and his back-ups, which is when I first started championing CERA related value (in VTEk's favor). I also did a study on Posada and how his back-up get much better results from the staff than he did. This is not about Plawecki. I'm fine with DFA'ing him the second this season is over. I also do not believe Vaz is worth $7M, next year. Do you?

Do you account for opposing pitchers and team defenses when comparing OPS between Betts and Verdugo?

I'm talking about Vazquez and all the sample sizes that total in the hundreds for 2 or more Sox catchers- career sample sizes with 100+ IP with 2+ catchers. Here are a few: Price: 4.27 Vaz (360 IP) 2.96 Leon (204) Sale 4.03 Vaz (114 IP) 2.79 Leon (435) 2.51 AJ P (226) Porcello 4.96 Vaz (211 IP) 4.19 Leon (577) 4.93 Swihart (122) ERod 4.22 Vaz (603) 4.05 Leon (118) Buchholz 4.44 Vaz (130) 2.83 VMart (241) 3.01 Leon (155) 3.95 Salty (207) 5.12 VTek (118) These are NOT SSS.

Even if they knew they'd never come to an agreement, why not make one last offer? Same with Lester. (With Lester, the offer they ended up making after he became a FA might have been enough to get an extension. It makes me think they knew this and never wanted him even at their final off price.)

First game we lose, assuming we do, he'll be back. Don't see much of the ghost, either.

Indeed. His 2019-2020 numbers still beat many of the guys we have in the pen and their 2021 numbers. Enough to make him top 12-13 and worthy of being on the 26.

I still think a counter offer would have made for better optics.

Agreed, but would you call his 2020 season "special?"

Every stats is. It doesn't make them all meaningless. You don't think the fact that 75% of all pitchers have done better with Vaz's back up over a 6 or 7 year sample size has any meaning or value? It's even more pronounced in pitchers with hundreds of IP'd with 2+ catchers- sometimes a 1.00 or 1.50+ disparity. It's like saying less runs allowed with JBJ in the OF vs JD is totally random and meaningless.

I went by 2016-2018 average (103 HRs in 3 years). I don't count a player's first few seasons as projection tools for who they will be or are now.

I didn't say I had any problem with 2020- just that it was nothing special. It was only a 9 game sample, and he did pretty good. I guess one could say it was a little "special."

Brasier has been good a lot more than bad since joining the Sox. He's got better numbers than several others in the pen. I'm not sure why he gets so much flack. He's not great, but he's been pretty good most of the time.

The issue, now, is to protect him from rule 5 or not. He is clearly not close to MLB ready, but with 26 man rosters, maybe one GM sees enough potential to grab him. Sitting on a bench isn't going to help him develop, either. Ideally, we leave him unprotected and nobody claims him, and the choice is put off another year. By 2022, we'll know more, and other GMs will, too.

IMO, they kept Leon pretty long as a testament to his value as a catcher who maximizes pitcher results. They certainly did not keep him for his hitting. Plus, he started making about $2M a year, and they probably felt they could find a defensive catcher for cheaper. Now, Plawecki is getting near $2M and Vaz makes $7M, so let's see how they handle this. My comps between Vaz and whoever his back-up were are not "all over the place." I keep a consistent min sample size requirement that both catcher must reach to make the study. I compare pitcher by pitcher, which is how it is supposed to be done to take our unbalanced sample sizes, and I go over every year since Vaz has been our catcher. Yes, there is randomness. I have never claimed the numbers are all tied to pitcher-catcher relations, but when every single season shows 70-80% of the pitchers who meet the min requirements do better and many times much better with the catcher not named Vaz, I think it has meaning. Then, I never said that "meaning" supersedes or should supersede all other factors in valuing a catcher. I have never called for making Vaz the back-up. You guys are blowing up the significance I place on CERA and COPS data. I am merely saying it should be part of the placing value matrix, along with contract cost, offense and other defensive values. There is a lot of data that shows Vaz is not handling the staff as well as his back-up. That's not the same as saying he sucks handling the staff- just that he has not been as good as the other catcher. If Leon was great- maybe Vaz was still good. You can choose to deny it or try to misuse overall CERA data all you want, but facts are facts.

I hope that’s it. That is something fixable.

I guess plus D at SS is worth more than many think it is. .340 OBP and 35 HRs a year might make .850 look more like .900.