moonslav59
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Everything posted by moonslav59
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Nobody is arguing against the idea that spending more increases the odds of winning. The fact is, Henry cares about spending and avoids the 3rd year mega taxes like the plague. Like it or not: that's the way it has been and will likely continue. My guess is, Bloom and Henry determined the best time to go way over the tax line was not 2021 but more like 2022 or 2023/2024. He did not want the tax clock on year 2 or 3 in those years. I get the argument about us knowing we are in the playoff hunt, this year and not knowing in future years, so why not go over, this year? That point has merit. The only thing that really makes a difference, is what Henry thinks.
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I get what you're saying. I'm not sure you get my point.
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Can you answer the question in the example I gave, where Vaz had the overall better CERA but was worse with every pitcher. Which catcher is better? (Is Vaz better only because he catches better pitchers more often?)
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Okay, that's exxtreme, but $1.00 is not much different from $10M, when the multiplier effects of going over this year kick in 3 years from now, and we are ready to go over by $19M in 2024.
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DD also caused 2019 and 2020. Trading away prospects to win now, and going over the tax line causing a future year reset is exactly what DD did, and now, you want Bloom to repeat just that. You can convince yourself that Henry will spend as much as you want him to, every year, and not care about the taxes, especially year 2 and 3, but until I see it, I'm going off the idea he dislikes paying taxes more than a year or two- spread out. The history sows the Sox have reset very often and several tiems, stayed under for 2-3 years in a row. What evidence do you have that suggests Henry is changing that strategy or philosophy?
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I'd hold off on Arauz until Rule 5 time. We'll get to see more of him by then, as well as more from Potts, Rosario, Robles, Davis and a few other bubble players. I still have slim hopes for Arauz. Santana and Andriese? I'm done with both. noting points out 2 will have to go for Sale and Brasier, so the 3rd guy for Munoz is a tougher call. Maybe that's why that move has not been done, yet. Here are the bubble players I imagine may not make next year's 40 man (1 or 2 might): Robles Potts Rosario Davis Ro. Hernandez Bazardo (health outlook) (Long shot DFA's: Marwin, Richards, Perez) Cordero & Dalbec will be on the 2020 40 man roster, unless they are traded.
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The 20 game sample size by Duran is close to useless. I would demote Arauz for Munoz and DFA any one of 3-4 guys (Santana, Robles, Andriese or someone who will likely be DFA'd this winter- like Potts or Rosario- maybe.)
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Most articles written about CERA and OPS against numbers by catcher talk about not comparing catchers from different teams with these numbers and not looking at overall CERA/OPS against, unless both catchers catch almost all pitchers very evenly (highly unlikely).
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You don't get it. Let's say Vaz catches mostly Sale and Eovaldi, and Plawecki catches mostly Richards and Perez, so Vaz has the better overall CERA, however, Plawecki does better with all 4 pitchers (yes, it's possible), you still say Vaz is better? Example: Sale 2.50 w Vaz 150 IP 2.00 w Plaw 50 IP Eovaldi 4.50 w Vaz 150 IP 4.00 w Plaw50 IP Richards 4.00 w Plawecki 150 IP 5.00 w Vaz 50 IP Perez 4.00 w Plawecki 150 IP 5.00 w Vaz 50 IP Vaz would have the better overall CERA but do worse with every pitcher. You still want Vaz starting with every pitcher.?
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I know I never said we should trade Barnes, if we are in a playoff race. I have mentioned us possibly being buyers and sellers, but not to have a fire sale.
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$1.00 under is the same as $111M under.
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DD did that, and here we are.
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Don't need to DFA Arauz. Add Munoz- DFA Santana (maybe Andriese)
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4:10 start time. (Free game on MLBTV) Big game for Houck and the Sox. -
My bad. Kike: .739 from 2019-2021. Plawecki .722
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I think it is harder to do that in December, as all teams usually feel the rule 5 crunch, but of course those GMs look ahead, too.
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That's just not true. I did mention it was something to think about, if we were not in the playoff race or tried to be buyers aand sellers like the Rays do. (Yes, I mentioned Barnes, Ottavino & ERod but never said I wanted to trade them.)
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...and then all the data that shows Vaz is much better at pitch-framing and blocking balls in the dirt and throwing out base-stealers. However, it appears only I look at CERA and OPS against numbers pitcher by pitcher that slightly favors Plawecki.
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All I expected for guys like Arauz, Potts and Rosario are promising prospects that are not Rule 5 eligible, this winter- nothing all that great. I expected nothing for Richards or Perez but maybe $500K to $1M in salary relief, beyond the min wage replacement player. We are very tight with the tax line, right now.
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Casas does hit RHPs about 100+ points better, but he may not be ML ready until late 2022. Also, his numbers vs RHPs are not super. I think we sign a cheap 1Bman, this winter, to a 1 year deal- maybe someone to platoon with Dalbec. Maybe we trade Dalbec or keep him in AAA for a while, next year.
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I pointed this out earlier, and that sample size is bigger and more significant, but if you go back to 2019: .744 Vaz .722 Plawecki Who sets the time frame that "matters most?" Isn't 2019-2021 a bigger more significant sample size, in terms of size, or is recency the major consideration? My beef with Vaz is more about how he handles the staff, and I've always wanted his back-up to play more than once every 5 days, but I'm not ready to call for Plawecki to be the starter more games than Vaz. (It's getting closer to my thinking that, though.)
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I don't think players who have been around as long as Valdez have their confidence shattered that easily. If they are like that, maybe it's good we find out, so we can cut his ass, this winter. (We won't, because his confidence is just fine.)
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Very likely, even if we paid close to all their contracts minus min wage, but we don't know, if that was ever discussed. I was also thinking of players like Arauz, Potts, Rosario and the like- players likely to be squeezed by Rule 5 additions and FA signings, this winter.
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.419 Houck .524 Rios .653 Taylor .668 ERod .697 Pivetta .699 Eovaldi .716 Whitlock .726 Barnes .809 Valdez .835 DHern (IL) .838 Davis .853 Ottavino .936 Richards 1.028 Sawamura 1.127 Perez 1.232 Robles
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It's always fun to update the team OPS after a game like last night... .920 Devers (forevers- lock him up!) .895 JD (fliting with .900, again) .889 Bogey (Is the wrist better?) .788 Renfroe (going for .800) .787 Kike (going for .800) .772 Verdugo (back from PL) .676 Dalbec (Could he get to .700?) .639 Vaz (lost season at the plate) .573 Marwin (no business being 9th in PAs) Under 180 PAs: .896 Wong (14 PAs) .892 Arroyo (please come back healthy) .757 Plawecki (on fire!) .580 Duran (needs to fill the hole in his swing) .580 Arauz (probably not on the '22 40 man roster) .554 Santana (countdown to DFA) .549 Chavis (no longer here) .513 Cordero (miserable start to his Boston tenure) Last 28 days: .994 Devers .916 Plawecki .907 Kike .813 Renfroe .781 JD .777 Verdugo .715 Bogey .686 Dalbec .580 Duran .554 Vaz .550 Cordero .485 Arauz .473 Marwin
