moonslav59

Rule 5, this winter: Jecorrah Arnold Brayan Bello Cole Brannen Gary Calvo Marco Cardoso Pedro Castellanos Felix Cepeda Kole Cottam Kutter Crawford Ricardo Cubillan Osvaldo De La Rosa Tyler Dearden Jonathan Diaz Danny Diaz Jeter Downs Tyler Esplin Durbin Feltman Ryan Fernandez Ryan Fitzgerald Antoni Flores Frank German Rio Gomez Devlin Granberg Gilberto Jimenez Jose Larez Dominic LoBrutto Bryan Lucas Charlie Madden Alan Marrero Elih Marrero Joan Martinez Alexander Montero Oddanier Mosqueda Brendan Nail Brett Netzer Tanner Nishioka Kaleb Ort Yusniel Padron-Artiles Aaron Perry Antonio Police AJ Politi Ceddanne Rafaela Oscar Rangel Tyreque Reed Jesus Rosillo Yasel Santana Victor Santos Zach Schellinger John Schreiber Gregori Segovia Chase Shugart Miguel Suero Jake Thompson Thaddeus Ward Grant Williams Josh Winckowski

I usually wait until the current season is over or all but over to start next year's thread, but it does not make sense discussing 2022 on the 2021 thread, so here it is... Here is a look at next year's projected 26 (Red) and 40 (Blue) man roster. Free Agents: ERod Ottavino Marwin Robles Santana Projected Options not given: Richards ($10M/$1.5 Mb/o) Perez ($6M/ $500K b/0) Andriese ($3.5M/ $250K b/o) Projected opt out: Schwarber ($11.5M) Projected Options given: Vaz ($7M) Projected no opt out: JD ($19.4M) 2022 (4 projected FA signings- #2 SP, #2 RP, 1B, Utility IF'er): (5) Rule 5 protected SP: Sale, FA, Eovaldi, Pivetta, Whitlock, Seabold, Groome, Mata, Bello (5), Winckowski (5) RP: Barnes, FA, Houck, Taylor, DHern, Sawamura, Brasier, Valdez Rios, Bazardo C: Vazquez, Plawecki, Wong, Ro. Hernandez (bubble?) 1B: FA, Dalbec, Cordero 2B: Arroyo Downs (5) 3B: Devers SS: Bogey, FA LF: Verdugo CF: Kike, Duran. Jimenez (5) RF: Renfroe DH: JD Any 3 from... 5th FA or 6th FA Current 40 Man Bubble (all have options remaining): A Davis, Rosario, Potts, Arauz Possible Rule 5 protected: Kutter Crawford, Victor Santos, Thaddeus Ward Cole Brannen, Cole Cottam, Durbin Feltman, Frank German, Devlin Granberg. Kaleb Ort, Tyreque Reed, John Schreiber The budget outlook is a little murky, due to JD's opt out and a few options that might be viewed as borderline (not by me). Here is a look at the lux tax numbers for 2022 (by cots): Locked Up: $100.5M 25.6 Sale 20.0 Bogey 17.0 Eovaldi 16.0 Price 9.38 Barnes 7.00 Kike 1.50 Sawamura Arbs (2021 salary) $24.5 10.5 Devers 2 of 3 (4.6) YES 5.00 Renfroe 3 of 4 (3.1) 2.50 Plawecki 4 of 4 (1.6) 1.50 Brasier 2 of 3 (1.3) 0.90 Cordero 2 of 3 (800K) 2.50 Verdugo 1 of 3 (650K) 2.50 Pivetta 1 of 3 (614K) 1.10 Arroyo 1 of 3 (582K) 1.00 Taylor 1 of 4 (581K) Pre-Arb Keepers (on 40 man): D Hernandez P Valdez Houck Dalbec Whitlock Duran Groome B Mata Y Rios C Seabold C Wong Pre-Arb Bubblers (on 40 man): A Davis Arauz Bazardo Ro Hernandez H Potts J Rosario Player Opt Out or Mutual Option: ($19.5M) 22.0 JD (19.4 projected no opt out) 10.0 Schwarber (11.5 m/o w 3 b/o) projected no option Team Options (my projection) 2021lux tax): ($7M) 10.0 w 1.5 b/o Richards (NO) 10.0 6.0 w 500K b/o Perez (NO) 5.0 7.0 w 250K b/o Vaz (YES) 4.5 3.5 w 250K b/o Andriese (NO) 2.1 Free Agents (2021 $$$ lux tax): 13.8 Pedey (Retired) 8.9 Ottavino 8.3 ERod 3.0 Marwin (DFA'd) 2.8 Beni (paid to KCR-2021) 2.0 Robles ??? Santana (NYY paid us $1.8M for Ottavino in 2021) TOTAL BUDGET: 151.5M + 2.5M other 40man roster players +15.5M Player Benefits $170M 4-5 FA Pick-ups: SP2 (1-3 years) RP2 (1-3 years) 1B (1-2 years) Utility (1-2 years) Pitcher (1-2 years)

That was my step 1.

...after running under a ladder while spilling salt.

We would have waived Chavis, this winter for the Rule 5's. DFA'ing Andriese or Richards admits mistakes, too. I think we all agree Santana goes, but who goes for Brasier? Name a name.

1. Activate Sale, DFA Santana, Promote Sale, Demote Davis (Robles has no options) 2. Activate Brasier, DFA Robles, Promote Brasier 3. Activate Vaz, Demote Wong 4. Activate Arroyo, Demote Arauz 5. Activate DHern, Demote Richards or Cordero

The Hansel and Gretel additions were not serious moves, and what we gave up for them is the proof. IMO, Santana goes first (Sale), but when Brasier needs to be activate to the 40man roster, this is my list in order of most likely DFA'd listed first. (Note: I've been wrong before.) 1. Robles 2. Andriese (due to his option cost in 2022 being too high) 3. Davis 4. Richards 5. Perez Bubble players, this off season, could just be DFA'd now rather than later: (Some might have trade value and won't be DFA'd.) Potts Rosario Arauz Bazardo (60 day IL) Ro. Hernandez Players I think will be on the 40 man in 2022 (or traded): Cordero & Rios.

I seriously doubt Cordero's name even comes up in discussing any DFA's. He has options left and is hanging onto some promise going forward.

True. How good night we’ve, now, if our payroll was $230M and we had a great farm and then trade much of it away?

Like the saying has been said over and over, this year, "How can he be any worse than _____?"

Yes, just as much of Blooms payroll was inherited and was "dead money." Same with arb raises. The difference was the no going over the tax line edict. (No, if wasn't a soft guideline.) BTW, I did not say DD created the whole bloated payroll- just that he left one for Bloom. Not a false narrative.

Lots of dead weight about to go bye-bye.

Robles may go first. Davis may be close, too.

When Sale comes off the 60 day IL, ...

When you trade away the whole farm but 1-2 guys and it was a nice farm when he took over, and you bring the payroll from the $165-175M to $200-230M a year, the window should be longer than 3 years.

OK, my eyes are bad, but I think I got the 70% part right.

Good way to ease Schwarber into the swing of things.

I am truly shocked. Cora must be crying.

I don't like starting the next year's thread until we are out of it, but maybe that's not a good idea.

They have not faced the CWS or HOU all year and have 70% of their remaining games against contenders. The Sox have 40%.

I don't think hitters are more patient and forcing more pitches per inning by starters. The Rays have used 12 starting pitchers - 7 with more than 4 starts. Most IP (7 or more IP) 19 Hill (traded): 8.0, no 7's 17 Yarbrough: 9.0 & one 7.0 17 McClanahan: one 7.0 (his last start) 15 Wacha: only 2 as high as 6.0 14 Glasnow (out all year): 8.0. 7.2, 7.0, 7.0, 7.0 11 Fleming: one 7.0 8 Patino: nothing higher than 6.0

The A's have a very tough schedule remaining. 7 CWS 3 SFG 6 HOU 4 NYY 3 TOR 7 SEA 3 @ LAA 33 out of 47 remaining games (70%!!!), including ending with 13 vs HOU & SEA. We end with 9 of our last 14 vs BAL & WSH. Our tough games remaining: 4 TBR 3 @CWS 6NYY 3 @SEA 2 NYM That's 18 out of our remaining 45 games (40%)

But, Melroni says we should have bought more.

He left the farm a mess and a bloated budget. You did not mention Price, Pedey and others... Had DD stayed and been given the same budget restraints as Bloom, he'd have done no better or quit. BTW, we are 12-11 in Eovaldi's starts, this year. We are 14-8 in Pivetta starts and 12-10 in Perez starts. (See how I left out Richards?) We'd be crap without Whitlock, Kike, Plawecki and others. Sure, Bloom swung and missed on many acquisitions, but with his budget, did you expect better?

We were sellers at the 2020 deadline.