moonslav59

Plus, the people that bashed him last night, ignored the first 3 innings of fine work.

No doubt, I may be overemphasizing CERA related value. I get that. I think you guys think I value it more than I do, because I spend so much time arguing it matters. It does boggle my mind that some think it has zero value. That is makes absolutely no difference to the pitcher and team, after factoring in pitch-framing and other defensive aspects- who catches. Really? Zero? Those consistent 1.00 to 1.50 ERA disparities have to all be just chance randomness and strength of opponent's offenses. (Not that I'm saying CERA explains all or even most of those disparities, but come on, zero?) Mind-boggling.

Makes no sense or point.

Not over the second half of the season. Not over the last 3-4 seasons. Not based on this... I made some adjustments to my own system, and here are the results for 2021, including today. (I went through every game box score to gather these results.) A Quality Start: 8+ IP 0-3 ERs/ 6+ IP 0-2 ERs/ 5+ IP 0-1 ER/ 4+ IP 0 ER B Quality Start: 8+ IP 4 ER/ 6+IP 3 ER/ 5+ IP 2 ER/ 4+ IP 1 ER/ 3+ IP 0 ER C Quality Start: 6.2-7.2IP 4 ER/ 5.1-5.2 IP 3 ER/ 4+ IP 2 ER/ 3+ IP 1 ER D (just missed QS): 8+ IP 5 ER/ 6+IP 4 ER/4.1-5.0IP 3ER/ 3.1-3.2 IP 2ER The 2021 Red Sox Starters: Eovaldi 30 GS (20 QS/ 20 A+ 15 QSA 5 QSB 0 QSC 2 Close 22/30 QS+ close 73.3% ERod 28 GS (15 QS/14 A+ 9 QSA 5 QSB 1 QSC 1 close 16/28 QS+ close 57.1% Pivetta 28 GS (12 QS/ 10 QS A+ 10 QSA 0 QSB 2 QSC 6 close 18/28 QS+close 64.3% Perez 22 GS (13 QS/ 13 QS A+ 6 QSA 7 QSB 0 QSC 2 close 15/22 QS+ close 68.2% Richards 22 GS (10 QS/ 8 QS A+ 6 QSA 2 QSB 2 QSC 3 close 13/22 QS + close 59.1%

Says the poster who is so easily and often triggered into spewing unsolicited rants and insults.

It is an absurd number, but it should not be what other GMs use to set the value on Correa, Baez, Story and others and Bogey next winter.

Then why do certain pitchers have only one catcher catch them or one for 90% of the time? Why not rest catchers based on lefty-righty splits or success vs this pitcher or that? IT'S CLEARLY NOT ZERO!

Plus, Devers seems to be coming out of his fielding funk. Bogey looks 100% healthy, too.

Obviously many fans were upset about losing Betts. I happen to think it might have been more understandable to many fans, had a reasonable second offer been made and made public. I don't care what their reasoning was for not doing so, but IMO, they should have done it. They should have learned from Lester, where the case was a little different due to Lester hinting he'd take a "team discount." Betts never hinted at that.

You seem to think "nothing special" means not fine. It does not. I asked if you thought 2020 was special and you said that's missing the point. The point was about 2020 being "special" or not. Nobody was looking at 2020 and saying it made the signing worth it. He pitched well in 2020 but nothing special. That's all I meant. I'm glad we signed him, now- after 2021 and 2020 did not hurt the position, either.

Why is 2019 so meaningful? 2018: 12 Leon 26 Vaz Maybe the flip in this area led to Leon's departure. Sounds reasonable.

Maybe so. I have never claimed otherwise. I'm not sure many teams look at CERA type data, but the fact that many teams intentionally lock one catcher with certain pitchers shows they believe in some aspect of pitcher-catcher relationships and comfort levels making a difference. It's not all about what pitches a catcher calls, either. It makes a difference. How much is highly debatable. How much the Sox use it is unknown. They may laugh at it like you guys do.

He attacks the outside the zone fringes. He's become pretty successful doing that- much better than earlier in his career, where he barely made it past the 4th inning. The guy is a winner. he keeps the team in games more than almost anyone else. He also bears down with men on base and gets out of many jams. He missed 2020 with serious COVID issues and struggle out of the gate. Over the last 14 starts, he has a 3.97 ERA and a 3.29 FIP, despite having a horrific defense behind him and a .344 BAbip in this time frame. He's at 3.64/3.41 over his last 9 starts I agree, it does not seem like he will ever get past his "nibbler" tendencies, but it works for him and the team.

Well, I said he wasn't "special" in his first 2 seasons of the contract, and you objected to using that term. Saying it wasn't special is not saying it was anything worse than a "wash" or even better than a wash.

I might put Mayer above him, but that's total speculation. Who do you put second and third?

I did not "blame Vaz" for Buch's numbers, but hey, Leon and Vaz were both there for the trending down years. neither was there for his other parts of his career. Leon got 1.33 better during the exact same years.

Again, a very flawed way to use CERA. I think his age, his contract and his declining offense led them to go with a cheaper option. Let's see what they do with Vaz and the $7M.

Plawecki's sample sizes are smaller. Too small to make this study, but in smaller sample size, the trend is continuing. It says more about Vaz than Plawecki and Leon. To say I got on this CERA bandwagon because of Plwecki is just plain wrong. I have been talking about vaz and CERA before I ever heard of a guy named Plawecki. I have also never said CERA is the only aspect of a catcher's defense or the major factor in valuing a catcher. If I did, I'd have been saying bench or trade Vaz starting 4-5 years ago. I bring it up as one tool to measure someone by, and you act like I'm saying it is the be-all-end-all. I'd keep Vaz for next year, if his salary was $2M, so that alone shows you I don't think it is the most important factor. It does matter, though, and it can matter a lot, if the back-up is Leon. It mattered a lot with VTek and his back-ups, which is when I first started championing CERA related value (in VTEk's favor). I also did a study on Posada and how his back-up get much better results from the staff than he did. This is not about Plawecki. I'm fine with DFA'ing him the second this season is over. I also do not believe Vaz is worth $7M, next year. Do you?

Do you account for opposing pitchers and team defenses when comparing OPS between Betts and Verdugo?

I'm talking about Vazquez and all the sample sizes that total in the hundreds for 2 or more Sox catchers- career sample sizes with 100+ IP with 2+ catchers. Here are a few: Price: 4.27 Vaz (360 IP) 2.96 Leon (204) Sale 4.03 Vaz (114 IP) 2.79 Leon (435) 2.51 AJ P (226) Porcello 4.96 Vaz (211 IP) 4.19 Leon (577) 4.93 Swihart (122) ERod 4.22 Vaz (603) 4.05 Leon (118) Buchholz 4.44 Vaz (130) 2.83 VMart (241) 3.01 Leon (155) 3.95 Salty (207) 5.12 VTek (118) These are NOT SSS.

Even if they knew they'd never come to an agreement, why not make one last offer? Same with Lester. (With Lester, the offer they ended up making after he became a FA might have been enough to get an extension. It makes me think they knew this and never wanted him even at their final off price.)

First game we lose, assuming we do, he'll be back. Don't see much of the ghost, either.

Indeed. His 2019-2020 numbers still beat many of the guys we have in the pen and their 2021 numbers. Enough to make him top 12-13 and worthy of being on the 26.

I still think a counter offer would have made for better optics.

Agreed, but would you call his 2020 season "special?"