moonslav59

I really don't get why JD has been so maligned, this year. I get how he has not hit like the 2018 JD, but he's still a pro among pros. I can see him exploding in the playoffs, but don't confuse that with me saying he has clutch skills. LOL

It's not random. I get how comparing a pitcher from 2015 with the same pitcher in 2017 is fraught with problems, but I have done year by year- same pitchers- same years- 2-3 catchers. True, there are other variables at play, such as who was the opposing line-up and what field were the games played on with one catcher vs the other, but when you do a study based on 5-6 years and nearly every year shows vast disparities all in one direction, I think one can determine the trend has to do with something one catcher is doing better than the other. To say there is zero effect from one catcher and another really blows my mind. Sorry, it just does. I can see you and others thinking I value it way to much as "mind-blowing," too, but I will argue that just because I talk about it a lot does not mean I think it is the most important thing a catcher brings to his overall value. I do sometimes wonder, if a 1.50 ERA disparity is indeed linked totally to the catcher's CERA related skills, I might actually be understating it's value to certain pitchers - not all pitchers, of course.

Here are some interesting reads on CERA. There is not much talk about OPS against among different catchers on the same team. https://members.tripod.com/bb_catchers/catchers/cera1.htm https://tht.fangraphs.com/classic-tht-annual/do-catchers-have-an-era/ This one argues it is not significant, but it attempts to compare catchers against other team catchers: https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/1489/aim-for-the-head-simulating-catchers-era/

career sample sizes are over 100 IP'd by multiple catchers. That's not small. It's been "scrapped" because it is useless comparing players from different teams, which is what stats are mostly used for. Not many people are interested in what a back-up catcher on a team might be adding value on? We've been giving this way too much air time. It's just a factor- not a majority one. Not even a plurality one. I think it is significant. You think it's zero. It's probably somewhere in between- like minimally significaant.

All these days off suck for us fans.

Two out of three should be enough, but one game at a time.

He's better than Plawecki at pitch-framing, blocking bad pitches and despite the 2021 numbers, I think he's still better on offense, especially if rested enough. The CERA related issues do NOT outweigh everything else. It might be the only plus for Plawecki, and even then, not with all starters.

Agree, 100%. I think Soto, Tatis and Vlad are very close to knowing they are worth $300M.

Oh, I'm not saying the Sox share my SS defense bias. I do think they traded for OCab to seriously upgrade SS D. They also had Reese, Cora, Alex Gonzalez and a few other good defensive SSs, some times. Renteria was supposed to be a plus defender, but was injured the year we had him.

What is missed is that OCab's D was light years better than Nomar's. The way Nomar dropped off a cliff, his offense could be viewed as better in 2007, too.

Comparing CERA of catchers from different teams exposes a complete lack of knowledge of what CERA means and is useful for.

Who cares what the reason for CERA to be so different? I never argued about knowing the reasons for such wide and consistent variances, and in fact I have often said it's "not just about pitch-calling." If it's 100% comfort as to why a certain pitcher does better with catcher A over B, it's a reason to keep the better tandem together, and the CERA will show why.

I was advocating Vaz to play his normal amount of innings. Not more- not less. As it turned out saying maybe 250 for Plawecki amounts to Vaz playing less than he has THIS YEAR, but not less than his norm, so yes, in this light, you "got me." I also clearly showed it was about the offense not CERA, on that post. Look, I'm not perfect. My opinions change, and at times I say things that seem contradictory. I do think Vaz should get about 450-480 PAs as a catcher. That has been about his norm or slightly more. For some reason, despite his offense tanking, Cora started playing him more than ever, this year. I thought he was being worn out and maybe it was affecting his offense. Sure, the CERA issue was part of me thinking we should not play Vaz more than ever before, but it was not ever about just that. I think that is clear by my postings. It has not just been the last few weeks that I have been saying that CERA issues should NOT make Vaz play less. I've said it often. The only point I have been trying to make is that Vaz's value is not as high as many think it is, especially when people praise his defense, because, to me, CERA related factors is part of valuing defense. Vaz is still a better choice than Plawecki.

I never said he "needed 250." I said "maybe 250," and it was right after I listed their offensive numbers. This strawman stuff is getting annoying. You are saying a said things I never said.

I thought Vaz needed more rest. I was not close to be alone. It was not about only CERA, but that was one reason I thought he should be rested more than he has been- by about 50-70 PAs. Vaz's offense in about 135 points lower than 2019-2020 combined. He is being stretched thin. I'm not saying CERA is not a factor, but honestly, I said that because Vaz was headed to breaking his catcher innings career record by a lot.

I think they often do- some publically so, but that is rare. I think managers recognize certain pitcher-catcher match-ups make more sense, while some pitchers, it doesn't seem to matter. It's interesting that hardly any managers rest catchers based on batting splits or histories vs certain pitchers. Many FT catchers catch 4 starters and the back-up is assigned one specific starter. Maybe they base this on comfort level or looking at past data like CERA and C-OPS Against, or what pitchers request or comment about. It's clear that ERod is caught by only vaz, which to me seems strange, since he was one starter that seemed to do close to equal with any catcher. Eovaldi has done better without Vaz, even before Plawecki, so it is no wonder, to me, that Plawecki catches him at a higher percent than others. Pivetta has almost equal percentages with both catchers and his OPS against is pretty close between the two. Coincidence? Maybe. Perez is caught by Plawecki almost 2X the percent as Vaz (9.7% to 5.5%). You think that might have to do with him having almost a .400 point better OPS against with Plawecki, or is this just random? Richards has done almost 100 points better with Plawecki, but he has been caught almost 2X the percent with Vaz. This goes against the grain, so to speak. Sale has pitched with Vaz, only. RP'ers are different, because the manager does not choose who is catching their games bases on them pitching.

I'd lock Devers up long term. I'll worry about the Dalbec-Casas logjam when it happens. We will be needing a DH after 2022, so there is room for all 3, soon enough. Bogey is a tough call. He's such a great presence on the team, and is always a clear plus in value. I'm very big on SS defense, so I think that is why I am more open to trading him or moving his position than most posters, but I'd be happy to restructure his deal to avoid the opt out. The contract cost would be the issue. If it came down to Devers or Bogey- I go with Devers.

Comfort level and relationship disparities can cause better or worse results, so no. I think it does affect CERA and COPS Against.

He doesn't seem like one, at the moment, but it might depend on your definition of "ace." I like to go by roughly the best 30 pitchers in MLB. Right now, he is 30th in ERA- among all pitchers with 35+ IP. (6th among starters.) He's 20th in xFIP-, right ahead of Eovaldi. SIERA 15. Houck 3.43 17. Sale 3.44 21. Eovaldi 3.53 29. ERod 3.68 Sale's 1.29 WHIP is not top 30. I'm not presenting these facts to argue he is currently top 30, but I do think he's done pretty well since returning and has a ways to go to be called an ace again.

No doubt. I'm just saying, Iggy is not the defender he was when we first knew him.

I never said play Plawecki more. That's a fact. Saying maybe Vaz needs more rest is different. Plus Vaz is on pace for maybe 510-520 PAs- pretty close to 450. One big difference about this year is that Vaz has not DH'd as much. BTW, haven't a lot of people said Vaz has been overused and is tired?

Is a 70-80% Sale as good or better than other AL team's #2?

Probably, but unlikely more than 1 or 2. It's not all about pitch-calling. I'm thinking a lot has to do with intangibles and relationships.

I agree, but it just takes one GM- maybe on a team that is in tank mode- to lose him.

Keeping fans happy is important, but winning does that. Nobody seems to care about Betts, this year, but when we sucked, last year, they did. It really depends on what we could get for Bogey and his 1 year of control. It also might depend on how he might handle a position change at some point during his extension.