moonslav59

Pivetta has been hot and cold pretty much all year. He's risen to the occasion a few times. Need Big Nate to come through, first. One game at a time.

Game 3 is the big game. Eovaldi is on extra rest. Why push him back? Pivetta may work out better than ERod, especially since both would be on short rest. I trust Cora. Interesting choice.

2 games prove nothing. BTW, he hit better than the Rays. (.777 to .749) That's a big thing. They scored more due to better timely hitting and better baserunning, but we hit better. Want evidence? Look at game 2. LOL. BTW, we blew the Rays away in SP'er fWAR (14.6 to 10.8).

That wasn't my point. My point was about why you'd expect good health, when you never get it.

Easier said than done. I've been hearing this for over a decade. Houck may be the first big influence we've had in a long time. Whitlock, too. Seabold and Bello?

Barnes makes $9.4M the next 2 years in lux dollars, which includes the buy out money for the 3rd option year. Yes, that's close to $10M, but not quite. It looks bad, now, but I wouldn't write him off. I would not write Sale off either, but they both are big question marks. Losing Price's deal next winter will help. Losing Richards, Ottavino, Andriese and Perez, this winter, gives us a nice chance to improve without adding any more salary than these guys combined. The ERod cost and choice is a tough one.

It's not working. I'm no big fan of ERod, but we win when he pitches. Wins and losses are not meaningless. Never said that. It's not just the winning percentage. His other stats are not nearly as bad as you guys make him out to be.

Did you really not expect any injuries? Was the loss of these 3 really the main reason you guys missed out on greatness? If I had guessed, I'd have said Stanton would have missed more time than he did.

I didn't say the Rays weren't any good. What changed? We now have home field advantage and momentum. The Rays do the little things better than we do, but we do a few of big things better. That was true all year.

Let's just pretend that Sox winning over 70% of ERod's starts from 2018-2021 was all luck, incredible run support and whatever else we can dream up. No doubt, he has and has had issues- defense, too much nibbling and early exits, and a body language that impresses nobody, but he probably has the best team winning record in MLB since 2018. His stats are pretty good- not best winning % good, but still pretty damn good. All of this in no way changes the fact that I have very little confidence in him, at this moment in time. Hopefully, that will change, soon.

Lots of changes for a team that was destined for greatness, this year.

My point was, those past games matter to your opinion on the Sox chances at making the playoffs and/or beating the Yanks in the play-in, but they don't matter in your opinion of ERod. I just sense a change in criteria or a moving of the goalposts a bit. Just my opinion. Not overanalyzing.

As much as playoff heroics might change some of our opinions on a player's value or ideas on trading, DFA'ing or keeping our players, it really should not matter much- one way or another. We have a few big choices in early winter and one choice by JD that matters a lot. The JD choice: We've beaten this one to death several times over and over. It really makes a big difference to the Sox. Personally, I think JD does NOT opt out, but it is not a slam dunk. He may want a longer security blanket. The Schwarber Choice: He has a mutual option and will certainly turn down the $11.5M option.) The team options: No on Richards ($1.5M buy out over $10M option) No on Perez ($500K buy out over $6M option) Yes on Vaz ($7M option over $250K buy out) The QO choice: Do we offer ERod a QO, and if so, does he accept it? This is also a very important choice for the Sox and perhaps by ERod. It's a one year offer. I think we make the offer and he accepts it, in hopes he has a big 2022 season. The Rule 5 Choices: We will likely protect 4-6 players from this list: (This is NOT the full list.) Brayan Bello Cole Brannen Pedro Castellanos Kole Cottam Kutter Crawford Jeter Downs Tyler Esplin Durbin Feltman Frank German Devlin Granberg Gilberto Jimenez Kaleb Ort Tyreque Reed Victor Santos John Schreiber Thaddeus Ward Josh Winckowski After all of this, we will begin signing free agents, making trades and deciding who to keep or let go. (Some mat be DFA'd to make room for Rule 5 additions.) Special consideration may be given to players that see their team control end after 2022. Those players are: JD Martinez Eovaldi Kike Vazquez Plawecki The arbs: Devers (2nd or 3 arbs) Renfroe (3 of 4) Verdugo (1 of 3) Pivetta (1 of 3) Arroyo (1 of 3) Taylor (1 of 4) Plawecki (4 of 4) Brasier (2 of 3) Cordero (2of 3)

So, you were right, then? Those past games mattered and we lost the slot in the playoffs and the play-in game to the Yanks? Those past games (some the exact same games as the above example) don't count for ERod, because it fits your pre-determined opinion that he sucks and will continue to suck, right?

Dude, it was a 54 game season for JD (237 PAs), and you jumped at it like it was the only evidence that mattered. You are the one who uses age more than anyone I know. You use LeMahieu's 50 game sample size as if it is everything. I'm not doubting he can hit .300 in 2022, but in the overall sense of his age-related trend, he should continue declining- NOT from his 2021 numbers but in the context of his bell curve by age. OPS by age: .663 at 25 .746 at 26 .911 at 27 (could be viewed as an outlier) .783 at 28 (He had an .824 stretch in a 339 PA stretch.) .749 at 29 (He had an .809 stretch in 163 PA stretch.) .893 at 30 (might show maybe 2016 was not an outlier) 1.011 at 31 in just 216 PAs (Seeing what he did is similar stretches at age 28 & 29, one wonders if this was sustainable over 600 PAs) .711 at age 32 (2nd largest sample size season of his career) Let's look at 2 season samples: .667 '13-'14 .828 '15-'16 .767 '17-'18 .922 '19-'20 (.831 '19-'21) Jump 2013: .708 '14-'15 .844 '16-'17 .825 '18-'19 .784 '20-'21 (This one looks more like a typical bell curve.) I'd expect something like .790 to .850 in 2022, assuming he's healthy, and more likely near .840. JD is less than a year older than LeMahieu, and I'd be interested to know what you project for him, next year. JD's 2 year numbers: .893 '14-'15 .985 '16-'17 .985 '18-'19 .816 '20-'21 (To me, his curve seems tighter and more to form- more predictable, perhaps.) I'd expect something between .800 and .880 for JD, next year but likely closer to.870.

So, a 16 game sample size followed by 2 bad games, means very little to nothing? Not long ago, you were arguing that what the Sox had done vs the Yanks, days, weeks and even 2 months ago mattered. You implied we had little chance based on those games vs them.

I'm very confident with big Nate on the mound, but every month, this season, I can dig up a 2-4 game sample size that looks scary. Sure, ERod and other Sox starters have more of those sample sizes than Eovaldi, but my point is about not judging pitchers on just 2 game sample sizes. 7.15 ERA in 2 consecutive starts in April (6.06 in 3) 6.46 in 3 straight May starts. (5.79 in 6 straight April>May) 4.41 in 3 June starts. 10.80 7/31 + 8/6 (6.35 in 5 July-Aug starts) 11.74 in 2 end of Sept starts (7.82 in 3 straight) This is not meant to raise doubts on Nate. It is meant to point out that most pitchers have 2-3 game rough patches several times a season.

He's not on our roster.

Agreed. I thought this play in questions was maybe 50-50, so no error was okay with me, and yes, we've had way more than our share of worse no error calls than that one, this year.

I won't argue with this, but it is what it is. I'm glad we have big Nate going for us, but remember the rumblings after he let up 7 runs vs the Yanks just 3 starts ago? And, that was after he let up 8 H+BB and 3 ERs in 5 IP vs the lowly birds. He turned on a dime. Others can and might, too. (I would not bet on it, but it is possible.)

How about him?

Agreed, and momentum can change on a dime.

I'm feeling very confident, too. I'm tired of hearing how great the Rays are. They only won 8 more games than us. Sure, they do a lot of little things right, but we do a lot of big things right.

You are changing your point. You said he has "always stunk in the playoffs," when maybe you meant he has always done worse than his regular season once in the playoffs. 4.11 does not stink, and it was his largest playoff sample size of any year. Nobody will dispute he does worse than his norm or that his overall post seasons stats suck, especially now that his 2021 numbers are factored in, but he has not always stunk. That was the only thing I disputed. As for small sample sizes, I am the king of pointing out small sample sizes carry little weight, and I made that point about your proclamation that Sale has always stunk in the playoffs. I mentioned he had 4 starts before this year. You point about always stinking implies before 2021. Now, you are adding 2021 into your point about him always stinking. BTW, it's still a tiny sample size.

If no other road team wins, we advance to the next round!