moonslav59

Indeed. They will likely start the season as the fave, but this is baseball. Nobody expected the Giants to win the NL West, last year.

It's the other way around for me. I notice other teams' SSs making more great plays than Bogey, then I look at the metrics and stats, and it confirmed the observations. No joke, I'm obsessed with watching the Sox. I have come very close to watching every possible play of every Sox game for over a decade. That does not make me an expert, and I'm not trying to sound like a know-it-all, but I love defense, especially up the middle and pay very close attention to it- both on our team and the teams we are playing. I have loved man of our players' defense, and I have no bias against Bogey that would make me see what is not there. I can understand the fact that others watch a lot of games, too and don't see what I see. It's just my opinion. The fact that most metrics and stats back up my opinion does make me feel more firmly entrenched in my position, but I do not think the fact that I am a stat freak makes me see things that are not there, delude myself into beliefs based on numbers or enjoy watching the game less than anyone who hates or could care less about metrics or stats. I can think of only one time it worked the other way around. I remember when Ellsbury first came up, I felt he was a plus defender, but the numbers showed otherwise, so I started watching more closely, and started seeing late breaks, bad routes and a sub par arm. I changed my opinion based on stats and further observations, but then over time, Ellsbury improved his defense, and my opinion changed, again. Maybe somebody might think I let the numbers bias me into seeing what I wanted to see, but with Ellsbury, it actually meant I had to admit I was wrong.

The Dodgers have 4 guys at $27M+ on the lux tax line and are over $291M, and they might not be done spending. The Mets have 2 guys making over $77M combined lux tax dollars! They are at about $278, now. The Yanks are at $247M, Philly $231M and the Sox at about $237 lux tax.

Some Sox Lefty-Righty Splits OPS Career/2021 vs RHPs .900 Devers .978 .856 JD M .889 .847 Verdugo .894 .809 Story .735 .799 Bogey .887 .763 Dalbec .730 .717 JBJ .490 .690 Kike .744 .683 Vaz .710 .680 Arroyo .685 .664 Plawecki .690 vs LHPs 1.002 Story .974 .953 JD M .826 .902 Dalbec .877 .851 Bogey .818 .826 Kike .850 .734 Devers .751 .714 Vaz .555 .701 Arroyo .885 .674 Verdugo .554 .674 JBJ .528 .673 Plawecki .794

Now that we're firmly over the first tax line, one has to wonder about future spending plans. Who else is out there as a difference maker? Could a trade be in the works?

As much as I love SS defense, Correa is just out hurt, too often and is very inconsistent at the plate. It's close, but I like Bogey more, too.

Word out of Houston is that although the owner "got involved," no new offer was ever made by the Astros.

Interesting and encouraging insights.

I'd think LF would have to be the first stepping stone.

So, I guess Kennedy was lying. LOL!

He had a hard time adjusting to 1B from 3B.

I'm not saying it can't work, but it still looks scary, to me. Let's see how he handles fly balls in LF, first.

That sounds even better. 1.Story 2. Devers 3. Bogey 4. JD 5. Kike 6. Verdugo 7. Dalbec 8. Vaz 9. JBJ According to modern theory, the 3 slot should not be one of your best 3-4 hitters. The 2 and 5 and 1 slots are most critical. The "theory" might go with... 1. Story 2. Devers 3. Kike 4. JD 5. Bogey

RF is Fenway is way to scary for Dalbec.

Could be. I really like the lefty Devers 2nd, and the trend seems to be your best hitter bats 2nd.

How many teams spent more than the Sox, this winter, on 2022 salary, only?

Adding Story sure improves the line-up... 1. Kike CF 2. Devers 3B 3. Bogey SS 4. JD DH 5. Story 2B 6. Verdugo LF/Dalbec 1B 7. Dalbec 1B/Verdugo LF 8. Vaz C 9. JBJ RF Bench: Plawecki, Arroyo, Duran and Shaw/Arauz/Downs/Casas

Do we put Sale on the 60 day IL to make room for Story or DFA someone in hopes Sale can return before 60 days?

While the list of promising SP'ers on the farm is not fantastic, do you think it has improved since Bloom took over? 6. Bello 8. Groome 10. Mata 11. Seabold 12. W Gonzalez 13. Winckowski 14. Murphy 17. Walter 19. Song 20. Ward 27. Crawford After 2019 2. Mata 3. Groome 7. Houck 8. Song 10. Ward 11. Zeferjahn 12. A Ramirez (traded) 13. C Murphy 17. Bello (Many are the same names just moved up or down.)

True, and we'd need to start drafting or signing IFA pitchers more often. I can't fault Bloom for taking Mayer, though. There are other ways to acquire good young pitching- like when we traded Andrew Miller for ERod. Your point about trading Betts without getting pitching back was very reasonable, but even then, we tried, but Graterol failed the physical. (I kinda hoped he did not fail it.)

The Lux Tax Numbers: 25.6 Sale 23.3 Story 22.0 JD 20.0 Bogey 17.0 Eovaldi 16.0 Price 12.0 JB ~10.3 Devers 10.0 Paxton 9.38 Barnes 7.00 Kike, Wacha, Vaz 5.00 Hill 4.00 Diekman ~3.8 Pivetta ~3.5 Verdugo 3.00 Strahm 2.25 Plawecki 1.50 Sawamura 1.40 Brasier ~1.25 Arroyo ~1.00 Taylor add the 0-3 year players, the bonus pool and 40 man roster players in the minors, plus the player benefits $16M and our grand total is about: $236.6M (almost $7M over the lux tax line)

You don't think he will? (Also, doesn't mean he'll get it.)

Like last year, we don't need everything to go right... just enough things to go right or not go too badly. Think of all that went wrong, last year. We got swept by the O's to start the year and lost 2 of 3 in the penultimate series of the season, when winning meant just about everything. Our 3 (Richards) and 4 (Perez) starters flamed out. Barnes burst into flames. Houck went down, seemingly when we needed him the most. Ottavino failed to give us what we needed (1.45 WHIP). Sawamura gave us about the same WHIP. We counted on guys like Valdez (1.35 in 40 IP), Andriese (1.768 in 37 IP), Workman (1.900/20), Brice, Weber and others. We counted on Marwin way too much (finished 7th in PAs in April & May) Cordero & Santana had over 100 PAs in the first half of '21. These three his .583, .497 and .597 in 534 PAs combined. Duran to the rescue (.578 in 82 PAs) did not work as hoped. The expected growth from Verdugo didn't really materialize until the playoffs: .817 OPS in '19 .844 OPS in '20 .777 OPS in '21 Vaz hit .799 from 2019-2020 (710 PAs) but dropped to .659, last year. Arroyo missed most of the season. Although JD bounced back, he was still way below 2014-2019 OPS of .954. While Devers and Bogey both had fine years, Bogey missed some time and dealt with hand issues and Devers started out very slowly. At ages 23 and 27, one might have expected career or near career years in 2021. Dalbec looked like he was 2-3 bad days away from being demoted, before he carried the team on his back for a couple months. Kike was a godsend, but he too, missed significant time. I'm not crying injuries, here. We did better than most teams on the health front, but a lot did go wrong in 2021, yet a few players came through and stepped up their game, when we needed it most. We added Schwarber, Iggy, Shaw, Robles and Davis mid season, and they helped, too. I know there doesn't seem like there is a lot to be optimistic about, right now, and I share in the concern and worries many here have shared, but we don't need everything to go right in 2022, either.

We don't need all or even half of the promising pitchers to give us something good, this year. Maybe only 1 or 2 will do, depending on the health and well being of the guys at the top. How well Sale & Paxton do, when they come back might be the tipping point to the winning side, as well. Maybe we can keep Houck or Whitlock in the pen all or most of the year. Both would work even better, but that would mean at least one of these guys would have to step up: Crawford Winckowski Seabold Keller Hart Bello Groome Murphy If we end up using Houck and or Whitlock in the rotation for most of the year, we'd need 2-3 of the guys in red to step it up a notch, because hoping 7-8 out the 10 in balck might be too much to ask for: Barnes Brasier Taylor Diekman Strahm Sawamura Davis Robles DHern Holland Bazardo Valdez ZKelly D Feltman K Ort J Schreiber or, convert a starter to the pen (see above list)

I'm a big Pivetta fan & cheerleader. Yes, that was a very nice trade, even more so, if you take into account what Workman & Hembree have done since the deal. Pivetta did look good, last year, and many might think he's due for a regression, but as you pointed out, he's at the peak of his career, and his numbers were not all that far off from his career line. 2021/career 4.28/4.52 FIP 3.8/3.5 BB/9 (actually worse) 10.2/9.8 K/9 1.4/1.6 HR/9 1.303/1.395 WHIP Looking at the WHIP numbers, he's had 2.5 seasons over 1.305: his rookie year in '17, 2019 and the short 2020 season of less than 16 IP. He's had 2 good seasons: 1.305 in 2018 1.303 in 2021 Those two seasons represented 319 of his career 561 innings or 57%. He just turned 29. Can he regress? Sure. Will he regress? I don't think so.