moonslav59

Assuming we have $21M to line 1 and $41M to line 2 ($61M to avoid dropping our draft pick down 10 slots.) here are some ideas: $21M and no more: Trade Duran for Lodolo (saves $3.2M,) trade Campbell, Tolle, Harrison and Hicks for K Marte (adds $9.2M) and sign Refsnyder ($4M/1) and Matz ($5M x 2) $41M: Same two trades (adds $6M) and sign Alonso at $30M x 5 and Matz at $5M x 2. $61M: Same two trades (adds $6M) and sign Alonso at $30M and Schwarber at $25M (extra year)

Word is the O's are looking to spend bigly. Just what we need- an even tougher division!

We need 2 of those 4 (not Realmuto.) I was listening to Merloni, who was saying the Sox see players differently than the fans. They may see Realmuto as a decent middle order bat, just like they see Gray as a solid #1-2 SP'er. They look at numbers we don't. "They are poor at communicating what they think." I'd add K Marte to the list over Realmuto. 1. K Marte 2. Schwarber 3. Alonso T4. Bregman, Okamoto, Bichett (maybe Polanco, if we want to go cheaper)

Technically, he's not on their roster.

Even if we discount 2025 as a blip or unlucky ERA/ERA+, his 2024-2025 ERA+ is 101. That's a number 3. Other indicators show he's better than a 3 and hardly any other key numbers indicate a low 3 or worse. He's 20th in fWAR in 2025. That's a number one, if you call 1-30 number 1's, 31-60 number 2's and so on... He's 12th in K-BB%. That's a number 1. He's 12th in xFIP and 21st in FIP- both a number 1 category. His .329 BAbip indicates some bad luck and was bottom 7 in MLB. He was bottom 3rd in hard hit% and LD%, so maybe it was not so much bad luck. I think if you look at the totality of all these stats, one can say he's about a number 2, or at worst a top number 3. Some might argue he's a borderline 1-2 starter. His age of 36 does not hint that he will improve, but he does seem to be aging well. 116 ERA+ age 31-35 (117 at age 30-35) 115 ERA+ age 24-29 Call him a 3, okay. Call him a 2, fine. He has not been a 4, but at his age, he may be more likely a 3-4 than a 2-3. We'll see,

I think Cease is better than his 2025 ERA showed. Bassitt is probably worse than his ERA showed, but I don't see it as a major gain by TOR. I see Gray as a major upgrade over Buehler, but sadly, he is replacing Gio not Buehler.

Depends on how much TEX offers to pay.

Offense Lost from 2025: Certainly not "addition by subtraction as a whole) .821 Bregman (495 PAs) .905 Devers (334 PAs) .659 Toro (284) .838 Ref (209) .790 Lowe (119) .354 Sabol (18) .000 A Sanchez (2) That's 1038 PAs from Breggie, Devers and Ref (all over .821 and maybe combined to about .860ish) Add Lowe and we're at 1157 PAs near .850. That's about two FT bats. Total in Toro and scrubs and we're at 1460+ PAs at over .810 or so. That's more than 2 FT'ers. We will be adding a bat or two, and maybe even a name or two from the list above (Breg & Ref?) but we should also see more PAs from... 303 to 653? Anthony .859 +300 417 to 567? Abreu .786 +150 205 to 455? Yoshida .696 +250 136 to 436? Mayer .674 +300 That's 1,100 more PAs 112 to ??? Casas .580 Maybe less from Story, Narvaez & DHam?

Every year, I do this, and I'm not sure why. It means very little, but it does seem kinda interesting. Players lost: (More pitchers that I expected) 3.41 Giolito (145 IP/55 ER) 5.45 Buehler (112.1/68) 3.15 Bernardino (51.2/18) 3.35 Wilson (48.1/18) 5.00 Fitts (45/25) 8.04 Houck (43.2/39) 3.95 Newcomb (41/18) 3.12 Murphy (34.2/12) 5.40 May (28.1/17) 2.08 Matz (21.2/5) 4.15 Guerrero (17.1/8) 3.31 Alcala (16.1/11) 6.59 Hendriks (13.2/10) 3.86 Wink (11.2/5) 20.1 IP/19 ERs Campbell (still here), Burdi, Fulmer, Stock, Eaton & Toro Total: 601 IP (over 41% of all IP in 2025!) 328 ERs 4.91 ERA Added: 4.28 S Gray (181 IP) Sandlin, Uberstine & Drohan Expect more IP from: 0 to 150+? Crawford (4.36 in 184 in '24) 0-140+? Sandoval (4.11 in 145 in '23) 61 to 101+? Dobbins (4.13 in 61 in '25) 19 to 119+??? Early (2.33 in 19 in '25) 16 to 86+ ???Tolle (6.06 in 16 in '25) 12 to 82+? Harrison (3.00 in 12 in '25/ 4.04 including w SFG) 34 to 54+ ?Slaten (4.24 in 34 in '25/ 2.93 in 55 in '24) That's 600 IP added before these two: Moran (6.75) & Hicks (8.20)

He's a bottom 5 defender and should DH, but we need power. Welcome to Boston, Pete!

Maybe, and if some is differed, maybe the AAV can get near $30M. Or, just make it $240/8. I am not for paying that much for a 14-18 HR guy, who should not play SS.

They replaced 3.96 Bassitt with 4.55 Cease. Granted, Cease is better than Bassitt, especially as projected going forward, but he has to beat Bassitt's 3.96 to be an improvement. Baassitt has also had a solid 5 year run: 3.15 in 27 GS in '21 3.42 in 30 GS '22 3.60 in 33 '23 (led league in wins) 4.16 in 31 '24 3.96 in 31 '25 Now, they need to replace Bichette, while paying for Guerrero, Cease and Springer. Let's see what they do the rest of the winter.

He also thinks a weak arm is okay from the CF triangle. Where is the fact sheet on that claim?

They won't. They might take Hicks and give us a little cash, but I'm not taking on any cash to get a guy I wouldn't be playing. At least Masa can and likely will be our starting DH.

I have been under the impression that a team's draft choice drops 10 slots, if it goes over the tax by $20M. It is actually the $40M line- not the $40M. I'm not sure that is enough to get JH to spend $39M over the line, but if he does, then we are at a winter limit of $60M. That is close enough to get 2 big FAs or maybe 3, if we trade away some salary or trade for cheaper players. I think BTV would call Duran & Campbell a gross overpay for Ket Marte, but the tax hit on a trade like that would be just about $4.5M. (Better than that if Duran gets arb raises in the next 2 seasons after 2026.) Maybe we trade away more of our younger players, and teams are dying for decent pitchers: we have 12+ SP'ers on our 40. Maybe we spend the $60M on maxing it out on just 2 players: Alonso and Bregman or Alonso and Bichette. I know that is highly doubtful, especially if we have K Marte. Adding 3 infielders would allow us to trade the big injury question mark, Mayer. Maybe something as stunning as this: Mayer, Hicks and Harrison for K Marte. ($9M on tax line.) Duran for Lodolo (Saves $3M on tax line) Sign Alonso & Bichette or Bregman for 3B 1. L Anthony LF 2. S K Marte 2B 3. R Bregman/Bichette 3B 4. R Alonso 1B 5. L Abreu RF 6. R Story SS 7. L Masas/R Romy DH 8. R Narvaez C 9. R Rafaela CF Bench: Wong, Romy, DHam & Garcia/Campbell SP: Crochet, Lodolo, Gray, Bello, Sandoval/Crawford/Dobbins RP: Chapman, Whitlock. Slaten, Weissert, Criswell, Moran, Crawford/Dobbins/Tolle/Early/Kelly/Perales/Sandlin/Uberstine/Drohan

While I agree, his ERA, ERA+ and ERA- are all just below the league average and league SP'er average ERA numbers. I've never used those stats as the be all- end all, but they are significant indicators of mediocrity. Then, he's 36.

I'm not happy with thinking he meets the solid #2SP'er role, either. That was an essential priority in my mind. Yes, he was technically below average in ERA, and ERA, ERA+ and ERA- are all good measures of a SP'er's skill level. I'm not saying you are wrong. He does have other measures that say he did better than his ERA indicated, but I see that as maybe bringing him from a mid 3 SP'er to maybe a high 3 or low 2, at best. Some see him as a 4/5, and I think you started off saying that. Again, I get your position and understand your frustration with these continued one and done deals based more on hopes or promises than actual recent success. I'm afraid this is it with the rotation, unless something drops in our laps, or we deal 2-3 pitchers to upgrade our offense, and then add another SP'er. (Doubtful.)

Maybe the another good part of getting Bichette and KMarte is we don't have to worry about the next Mayer injury. (I'm assuming MM would be part of the KMarte deal, if not mostly all of it. I think Mayer+ Harrison gets it done on BTV, or maybe Mayer & Garcia.)

I loved Bob Seager. Seriously, though, Seager is still really good, when healthy. He'd be a nice get and with Story at 2B, we'd be better. The guy turns 32 in April. He'll turn 37 in his last year of his contract. We can't get JH to signing anyone to more than 5 years, except Story, but he was "only" $140M. We'd need some sore of money balance to even start talks on a trade. Maybe TEX takes Masa and leaves the back-end for us to pay fully. I'm just not sure Brez and JH want that burden all the way to the end of 2031. It's hard to know what TEX wants, and if they are in full rebuild mode, maybe they don't need ML ready prospects like most teams want. Would you do Masa, Hicks, Campbell and DHam for Seager and no future cash?

Gray will likely finish the 2026 2nd or 3rd in IP on the Sox. In terms of WAR, he may finish anywhere from #2 to #5 or 6.

I'm not thrilled with Gray as an only addition to the rotation. I do think I disagree with your take on the rest of the rotation. I would prefer more quality than quantity, but decent/promising quantity is not a bad thing. I think we have Crochet, Bello and Gray who are solid SP'er expected to start 28-33 games and go 160+ IP. We should be able to fill the 4 & 5 slots with a couple decent pitchers. Sure, we can scour the recent trends, injury reports and selected sample sizes of poor pitching, but we all know projecting what we'll get from these guys is near impossible. I'm worried that we may have to go through 6-7 pitchers to finally find the two that do well enough, and by then, we've lost 10-15 more games than we might have had we found the right two in the first week of the season. I can find very nice stretches in the careers of Sandoval, Crawford, Dobbins and Criswell. Some, like Criswell and Dobbins are their most recent starts. Sandy & Crawfish were from more distant pasts. Then, we have 3-4 promising young guys like Harrison, Early, Tolle and Perales. That's 8 guys for 2 slots. No doubt, I'd love to have another solid SP'er, but I think we are running with what we have, now. Of course, if we trade Crawford and Harrison in a package for a bat (maybe with Duran and or Campbell,) then maybe we have another SP deal in mind- like Alcantara, Gore or M Keller. I doubt we'll see Ryan or Lodolo or better. Get us KMarte and Alonso and I can live with Sonny Gray and nobody else.

It's not like Agon lit the world on fire, either.

We have over 10 SP'ers. The problem is 6-7 have serious questions. We need a #2 and the rest would have been okay. We do not need two #3's, but that might be all we might get. (I doubt we add another SP'er, but maybe someone like Gore or Alcantara?) 1. Crochet 3/4: Bello & Gray 4/5: Sandoval, Crawford 5/6: Harrison, Dobbins, Early, Tolle That's 9 already.... 6/7: Perales, Criswell 7/8/9: Uberstine, Drohan Okay, 10 might be pushing it, but these 6-9's might be 4-6's on many teams. Our 5/6 would be 4/5's on most teams. Our 3-5's might be 2's and 3's on many teams. We needed a co-ace and 2 big bats. Spending $21M on a non #2 seems overboard, but Cease just got $26M x 7, so....

They should hand Seager away for almost free. He's got 6 years left! I wouldn't give Tolle, Masa & Hicks for him, unless they added cash for the last 4 years after Masa and Hicks deals end.

Two total duds. Arenado can play D but sucks on O. Masa can hit but sucks on D. Arenado $30M x 2 AAV. Masa $18M x 2 AAV. Throw in Hicks and it evens the money up and opens a roster slot for a signing.