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moonslav59

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Everything posted by moonslav59

  1. moonslav59
    If it was all about team wins per start, ERod would be the highest paid pitcher in MLB.
  2. moonslav59
    Is he worth $20M, this year? You would not even offer him $20M/1 for 2023? If no, you will have to hope this management team can turn around the pitcher farm pipeline of trade for an ace, or two.
  3. moonslav59
    I do, too, and often argue against its overuse, but only in the context that there are some very good pitchers with low K rates and are poorly compared to others with high K rates who let up a lot of hits and BBs.. To see a pitcher drop that much in FIP is a warning sign, in my book. A lot has to do with his doubled HR/9 rate, but in a season where hitting and HRs are down, that number and FIP should jump out at us, even more. How about fWAR? -0.2 in 2019 0.9 in 2020 (pro-rate to 2.2) 5.6 in 2021 0.2 in 2022 (pro-rate to 1.1) BAbip makes me wonder, if his 2022 numbers are a bit lucky. .310 career and over .325 in 2020 and 2021, but .260 this year, despite these hard hit%'s: 39.7 2020 36.2 2021 43.4 2022 None of this worries you enough to back off a 4 year deal offer?
  4. moonslav59
    Of course it's up to Bloom, but it seems like you say every so-and-so is not worth it, except Bogey's hypothetical next contract. If I provide a list, it's easy, in hindsight, to say we should have or could have offered more for so-and-so, but saying it at the time of the signing is what should be stated: This past winter: $43M x 3 Scherzer $24M x 3 Stroman $23M x 5 R Ray $22M x 5 Gausman $22M x 2 Rodon (opt out if 110+ IP) $15M x 5 ERod (not an ace) Where does Eovaldi fit in this list, to you, not Bloom? The previous (COVID)winter: $34M x 3 Bauer The one before: $36M x 9 Cole $35M x 7 Strasburg $28M x 3 Gibson $24M x 5 Wheeler $20M x 4 Ryu $19M x 3 Keuchel $17M x 5 Bumgarner Looking at these lists makes me think we need to trade for an ace or get extremely lucky with our FA choice.
  5. moonslav59
    I think he is a much better pitcher, now, and those who use mostly career numbers miss an important part of valuing players. However, Eovaldi's age makes expecting him to remain who he is, today, a scary thought. We also have to think that maybe the 2021 season was an outlier. While his ERA and ERA+ numbers have remained very consistent since 2020, we have t remember 2020 was a short season and 2019 was not very good. ERA+ w BOS 133 (54 IP w the Sox) 97 w TBR 81 injured 2019 season 129 125 127 the last 3 years are awesome! Now look at FIP 2.88 2018 BOS 5.90 2019 3.87 2020 2.79 2021 led league 4.55 so far in 2022 .This should worry anyone saying 3-5 years should be offered. If you throw out 2019, his 2.0 HR/9 rate is the worst of his career and nearly double any season's HR/9 since 2016. His career HR/9 before 2022 was 0.9, and that includes all those seasons he was not all that good. These could very well be signs of decline or impending decline, and who knows how steep that decline might be.
  6. moonslav59
    Is there any ace-type pitcher who has been signed in the last 2-3 years, you thought was worth it at the time of the signing? (No hindsight thinking, please.)
  7. moonslav59
    They might prefer Yorke and Bello, if they are looking longer term. I doubt Crawfoed moves the needle.
  8. moonslav59
    I wish Bloom could find guys like him & Wacha! Oh, wait...
  9. moonslav59
    Are they the only ones going tonight that Woo has? How about... 2.75 Winckowski (.498 OPS Against) 2.93 Seabold (.563 OPS Against)
  10. moonslav59
    It's hard to name possible trade candidates or what it will take to get one, but that might be the best way to add an ace, this winter. Here are some BTV values: Assuming we don't trade Whitlock (68.0) or Mayer (55.4)... 52.4 Casas 48.4 Devers 48.2 Houck 37.7 Yorke 18.7 Verdugo 18.3 Bogey 14.8 Duran 13.0 Bello 7.7 Eovaldi, 7.6 Kike & Jordan, 7.5 Pivetta, 6.8 Downs, 6.6 Gonzalez, 5.2 Dalbec, 5.0 Lugo, 4.6 Jimenez & Winckowski, 4.4 Taylot & Walter, 4.2 Bleis, 3.8 Mata, 3.5 Groome, 3.3 Hamilton, 3.0 Binelas & McDonough Reds: 34.5 Mahle 31.9 Greene 30.2 Castillo Marlins 81.9 Rogers 71.6 Alcantara 65.5 Lopez 38.1 Chisholm 35.6 Luzardo 25.3 Meyer (prospect) 13.1 Sanchez 5.2 Hernandez Guardian 79.2 Bieber 30.1 McKenzie 19.2 Civale A's 37.8 Montas Orioles 6.3 Means Pirates 28.1 Bednar 21.7 Contreras Royals 28.7 Lynch
  11. moonslav59
    I have to agree.
  12. moonslav59
    I remember thinking when we signed Price, there really has not been a clearly better pitcher available for several years. (I had liked Scherzer, the previous year, but he seemed sort of a head case type.) I knew we overpaid. I knew it was for at least 1-2 years, too long, but we needed an ace. I'm thinking, now, a trade is probably the best way to get one, and not just because we've had better luck that way (Pedro, Schillin, Beckett, Sale.)
  13. moonslav59
    Good one.
  14. moonslav59
    Yes, I had everything backwards.
  15. moonslav59
    XBH Leaders on the farm (HRs) 17 Fitzy (8) 16 Rafaela (7) 16 Paulino (2, but 5 triples!) 15 Northcut (13 out of 25 hits are HRs) 14 Lugo (4) 13 Casas (6) 12 McDonough (5) 12 Kavadas (2) 11 Cordero (3) 11 Downs (7) 10 Binelas (7) 10 Potts (4) 10 Duran (2) 10 Jordan (2)
  16. moonslav59
    Some impressive OPS Against numbers on the farm .460 Bello .498 Winckowski .526 Murphy .532 Walter .563 Seabold .587 DHern .624 Gonzalez Pen arms .412 Z Kelly .448 A Politi .449 F German .465 T Danish .487 A Bautista .556 P Valdez Update on some massive K:BB ratios: 42:2 Walter 42:12 Bello 41:14 Murphy 20:2 Brancho 16:2 German 18:3 Politi
  17. moonslav59
    We will likely wait until mid July to start considering being sellers or buyer or neither. It may become obvious before then, but not many big deals happen in June.
  18. moonslav59
    I believe, both the Celtics and Bucks are 2-1 at home in this series. Sunday's game is in Milwaukee.
  19. moonslav59
    I'd offer him a $25M/1 extension, yesterday. It's the years beyond 2023 that scare me. Sure, he could decline or get hurt the day after we extend him, but so could some young stud... like, say, Luis Severino. I'd have given him a 7 year extension a few years back. Yes, the gamble is less with younger pitchers, but at some point we are going to have to take a big plunge (risk) and sign or trade for an ace.
  20. moonslav59
    Very true, and there were concerns about resigning Eovaldi after 2018, too, for the same reasons. You hit on some and miss on others. We hear complaining about the Paxton signing, now. There is risk with every signing and the longer the term the higher the risk. I don't think anyone expected Price to be great for 7 years, but it seemed like we needed an ace, so badly, it was all we could do. We need an ace, now and for 2023 and beyond. Trade or FA? We might hit the jackpot with one or two of our promising pitching prospects, but I don't think we should plan around that notion.
  21. moonslav59
    I did not mean to imply all of us were clamoring to extend Eovaldi. I think the Sale extension was based on the belief that he'd miss a full season during it's time frame, and the money somewhat reflected that. I'm not arguing it was a good signing, although I liked it at the time, but had he missed just 1 year and was able to pitch near 80-90% of his former self, the money reflected that idea. Hoping he would be a Verlander was not the right mindset. (BTW, Verlander missed 2 years and is being paid very well after that.) With Big Nate, it's not like he has been a model of health, either, and some of his peripherals seem to be showing signs of decline from his career year in 2021. The problem is, most of the good FA pitchers are about 30-32 years old..
  22. moonslav59
    You rarely see a PR early in a game, except for an injury, so that would be the only chance to get near all 5 things happening in one game. I'm not sure more than 3 have ever happened, let alone 5. The catcher interference and dropped 3rd strike are so rare.
  23. moonslav59
    We gave up a lot to get Pedro & Beckett, too. All led to ring. The Schilling trade, in hindsight, looks like we didn't give up much, but at the time, it seemed like a reasonable return. We ended up trading Beckett, and many of us are now highly critical of the Sale extension, while at the same time clamoring for us to extend Eovaldi.
  24. moonslav59
    We actually traded for Eovaldi, too. Then, we re-signed him, just like Sale, Porcello, Beckett, Schilling and Pedro. Price and Lackey were our two biggest FA starting pitcher splashes.
  25. moonslav59
    That's what I was thinking, so... pinch runner catcher interference 3rd strike dropped walk HBP I doubt anyone has all 5 in one game.
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