moonslav59

Exactly, and the money saved is barely a minor factor.

JBJ will make $17.5M/1 or $21.5M/2 (2022's number is due to the massive $8M buy out for 2023. His lux tax number is $12M for 2022. I'm not sure what it would be for 2023 due to the $8M counting towards earlier years. Grichuk makes $9.33M in 2022 and 2023, so it's $18.67M/2. That's about a $3M savings by the Sox. His lux tax number is $10.4M x 2 years. The money is pretty close. OPS Comps 2015-2021 .768 Grichuk .731 JBJ 2018-2021 .751 Grichuk .681 JBJ 2020-2021 .730 Grichuk .603 JBJ Career dWAR +9.6 JBJ +0.5 Grichuk

True, but in a 72 PA sample size, I'm not so sure. He ended up at .880. How do you think his defense might be at 2B not SS?

BTV also accepted these blockbusters: Casas, Duran & Mata for Olsen, Montas, Trivino, Andrus (-4.2)& Piscotty (salary dump) and Casas, Dalbec, Downs & Mata for Olsen, Montas & Trivino

I don't think Duran's stock dropped that much over so few ML PAs, but perhaps 20.1 is too high a score. Downs did well in winter ball and is close to his 11.8 score, IMO. The second trade I suggested had us giving up 45.6 and the A's only 40.6, so I factored in an over-evaluation of about $5M. I think the A's would do this deal. On BTV, I suggested this trade a while back and the votes are as follows: 3 thought it was a good deal for the Sox- 1 thought it was bad. 1 thought it was a good deal for the A's- 9 thought it was bad. Maybe I'm a homer.

Sox prospects by GM (soxprospects.com) 1. DD Casas 2. Bloom Mayer 3. Bloom Yorke 4. DD Duran 5. Bloom Downs (trade) 6. DD Bello 7. Bloom Jordan 8. DD Groome 9. DD Jimenez 10. DD Mata 11. Bloom Seabols (trade) 12. DD W Gonzalez 13. Bloom Winckowski (trade) 14. DD Murphy 15. Bloom Bleis 16. Bloom Wong (trade) 17. DD B Walter 18. Bloom Binelas (trade) 19. DD Song 20. DD Ward 21. Bloom McDonough 22. DD Bonaci 23. Bloom Hernandez (trade) 24. DD Rafaela 25. DD Paulino 26. Bloom Hamilton (trade) It's interesting that 7 out of the 12 Bloom prospects in the top 26 were acquired by trade. 14 of the top 25 are DD additions. That's not really as surprising as it appears, since his prospects have had a chance to prove themselves and rise up. Some of Blooms more recent picks may rise sharply in the next 1-3 years.

Murphy does have 4 years left, and maybe just the last 2 arbs will be too costly for the A;s, but your point is a good one. They do gain Casas which is a wash on pre-arb prospects, and catching prospects fail more often than 1B ones, IMO. Maybe something like this, then... Dalbec, Duran, Downs for Montas & Trivino. (Now, we'd need a 1B placeholder for Casas.)

Daubach had a nice 4 year stretch with us. .833 OPS from 1999-2002. Per 650 PAs... 28 HRs 100 RBI 42 2B+3B Streaky? 1999 1.008 first 336 PAs .569 last 84 PAs 2000 .876 first 319 .614 last 230 2001 .914 first 251 .794 last 221- Not a bad stretch at all. 2002 .983 first 142 .746 last 364- Not bad either. JBJ gets the nod.

Is this realistic? Sign Suzuki and Iggy Trade Casas, Duran, Downs and Wong for Montas (2 yrs), Trivino (3 yrs) and Soderstrom ( a highly rated catching prospect worth near the value of Casas on BTV. The A's can then trade Olsen for pitching and use Casas at 1B.) That gives us... 1. Kike 2B/CF 2. Devers 3B 3. Bogey SS 4. JD DH 5. Verdugo LF/Suzuki RF 6. Suzuki RF/ Verdugo LF 7. Dalbec 1B 8. JBJ CF/ Arroyo 2B 9. Vaz Bench: Arroyo/JBJ, Iggy, Plawecki, Arauz/Cordero/Refsnyder SP: Eovaldi, Montas, Sale, Pivetta, Wacha (Paxton) RP: Houck, Whitlock, Barnes, Hill, Brasier, Taylor, DHern, Sawamura/Davis/Seabold/Winckowski/Crawford/Valdez/Bazardo/Feltman

Agreed. I'm sure someone could break up his seasons differently than I did, but basically, since 2015, he's had 6 hot streaks in 7 seasons. Those hot streaks lasted these amounts of PAs: 129 121 146 234 417 108 Looking at the 417 large sample size in 2019, one could have broken that season into this: .443 first 150 1.058 middle 152 .724 last 265

We've all seen how streaky JBJ has been over his career, and I've defended that streakiness by pointing out consistent stellar defense and the fcat that his hot streaks have often been red to white hot and carried the team for stretches that sometimes lasted a month or two, but I don't think anyone truly believes that had the 2020 season been 162 games, JBJ would have had similar numbers over the 100+ games added. It's not that it shouldn't count, and that stretch does add some hope that he is not in a severe decline mode, but he does turn 32 in April. His fWAR does not show a long steady decline like bWAR does. 2.0 in 2015 in just 74 games 5.8 in 2016 (156 gms) 3.4 in 2017 (133) 2.5 in 2018 (144) 2.0 in 2019 (147) 2.0 in 2020 (55 games) -0.7 in 2021 (134) One could argue 2020 was more of an outlier than 2021, if you projected a 5.5 WAR and considered the natural decline most players have as they age past 29 or 30. Here's another look at the streaky JBJ: OPS 2015: .426 first 71 PAs 1.147 middle 129 PAs .560 last 55 2016 ,679 first 82 1.245 middle 121 .753 last 433 2017 .670 first 130 1.028 middle 146 .589 last 265 2018 .563 first 251 .851 last 234 2019 .443 first 150 .844 last 417 2020 .646 first 109 .991 last 108 2021 .365 first 28 .555 middle 346 .268 last 73 Thinking hopefully, one could look at the last 417 PAs of 2019 and all of 2020 and see over 600 PAs of nice hitting, and 2021 would look like a blip. Thinking negatively, one might think we are looking at one stretch of 108 PAs of good hitting in the last 2 years and 635 PAs.

Yes. 2016 #12 Groome #51 Chatham (traded for V Santos- still has some promise) #88 S Anderson (traded with G Santos for E Nunez) #118 Dalbec #148 Shawaryn #178 S Nogosek (traded with G Bautist & J Callahan for Addison Reed) 2017 #24 Houck #491 K Crawford 2018 #26 Casas #100 Feltman #130 K Cottam #160 T Ward #220 Duran 2019 (No 1st rounder) #69 M Lugo #137 N Song IFA 2015-16 B Mata 2016 (restricted) H Velazquez 2017 D Flores (RIP) B Bello G Jimenez 2018 W Gonzalez B Bonaci C Rafaela E Paulino

How much better does he have to hit to just get to a zero WAR? As he ages, does his chances get smaller? Does his defense decline some, as well? I'm hoping he can get over .650 or .675 and see a chance he can get over .700 and .750, but I think those may be long odds.

Never did I expect it to happen so quickly, especially with the way the system is set up to make it harder on big spending and winning teams. Sucking in 2020 brought us Mayer and others, so that helped, a lot. We also have to give some props to DD for drafting well with lower picks.

Happy New Year!

Yup. And lots of companies do some rather sickening things just to make a few more bucks in profit.

We cut Marwin for the same offense.

He did finish 6th in PAs on the Brewers and was lass than 50 PAs from 4th. He hit .459 in his last 333 PAs- that’s OPS and more PAs than Marwin got all year.

I’d love to see us add a2Bman, Montas and Trivino, but maybe we add Suzuki, Bassit and Trivino, and Kike plays 2B almost FT.

Even platooning him might not happen.

If we get a starter from the A’s, then Hill or Wacha move to the pen with Houck, Whitlock, Barnes and others. That might hold us to the deadline.

The age of absurdity!

Sarcasm is lost on this site.

$5M AAV assuming we pay the $8M buyout that does not count on the tax line. It’s $12M x 2 on the AAV if we take the option minus whatever Renfroe gets in2 Arbs. That might be $24M - $14M or more or less likely less. Then add what we pay fro a RHd bat to platoon with JBJ or suffer his poor splits.

Sounds like a good plan.