Here’s where each side stands on the key issues.
Minimum Salary
MLB: $630K, or fixed $615K/$650K/$725K salaries for 0-3 players
MLBPA: $775K in 2022, $805K in 2023, $835K in 2024, $865K in 2025, $895K in 2026
Current gap: $145K in 2022
I'm thinking maybe they agree on $725K plus $20K each year, ending at $805K
Competitive Balance Tax
MLB: Base tax thresholds at $214MM in 2022/ $214MM in 2023/ $216MM in 2024 / $218MM in 2025 / $222MM in 2026. Also proposing significant increases in tax rates on overages and new draft pick penalties.
MLBPA: $245MM in 2022 / $252MM in 2023 / $259MM in 2024 / $266MM in 2025 / $273MM in 2026
Current gap: $31MM in 2022, growing to $51MM in 2026. Gap also includes MLB’s proposed increases in tax rates and addition of draft pick forfeiture
I don't see the owners giving much up, here. Maybe we see $220M in 2022 and $5M additions each year, ending at $240M.
Draft Pick Compensation
MLB: Has proposed eliminating draft pick forfeiture for teams that sign free agents. Their plan still calls for teams to get draft picks for losing free agents, depending on the quality of the player. This offer seems to be tied to MLB’s CBT proposal as sort of a trade.
Maybe this gets in.
Pre-Arbitration Bonus Pool
MLB: $20MM pool. MLB has agreed to fund a bonus pool for pre-arbitration players, which would be a new addition to the CBA. They have proposed “a six-person panel — three from each side — to develop a mutually agreeable WAR statistic to allocate the funds,” according to ESPN’s Jesse Rogers. He adds, “The top 30 players in WAR and award winners would be eligible for the bonus pool.”
MLBPA: $115MM pool, distributed to 150 players.
Current gap: $95MM
I can't see this gaining much traction. I think the players lose, here.
Arbitration Eligibility
MLB: No change in which players are eligible for arbitration. In the previous CBA, the top 22% of 2+ players were arbitration eligible, known as Super Two players.
MLBPA: Top 75% of players in the 2+ service class eligible for arbitration
I see the players making gains, here. Maybe they settle on 40%- 50% tops.
Service Time Manipulation
MLB: Offering two draft picks within the player’s first three years if he finishes in the top three in Cy Young, Rookie of the Year or MVP voting (per Jesse Rogers)
MLBPA: “Players receive a full year of service time in their rookie season if infielders and catchers finish among the top seven for their position in WAR in each league, with outfielders, relief pitchers and starting pitchers finishing among the top 20. The union also said it would accept a modification of MLB’s proposal that would reward draft pick compensation to teams whose players finish among the top three in the Rookie of the Year, MVP and Cy Young voting.” (per USA Today’s Bob Nightengale)
Not sure about any of this.
Anti-Tanking Measures
MLB: Lottery for top four picks
MLBPA: Lottery for top seven picks. Under the union’s offer, teams would find themselves excluded from the lottery for finishing below certain thresholds in the standings for two to three consecutive seasons. The specific thresholds for exclusion varied depending upon market size, with larger-market clubs facing stricter requirements for lottery eligibility.
Probably settle on top 5 or6 picks.
Revenue Sharing
MLB: No change to revenue sharing
MLBPA: $30MM reduction
I see no change, here.
Expanded Playoffs
MLB: 14 teams
MLBPA: 12 teams
12 teams is my bet.
Universal Designated Hitter
This seems to be generally agreed upon by both sides.
About time, and why not Robo Umps, too?
While it seemed like I projected a lot of wins for the owners, I think the players would make out well, if all of my guesses come true. To me, if they could make further gains anywhere, it would be on the min salary.