moonslav59
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Everything posted by moonslav59
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9/27 O's @ SOX 7:10PM
moonslav59 replied to SPLENDIDSPLINTER's topic in Mike Grace Memorial Game Thread Forum
The Sox win, tonight. Bet the house. -
I agree. The trend is towards strong and much deeper pens. Almost every team used the added 26th man on the pitching staff, too. I've been saying we need 2 solid pen arms, but my point is that I like what we have in the pen, right now (assuming they come back healthy) more than the rotation. We need both, badly.
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One could have said, and did say, the same about 2021.
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It's not impossible to win without a strong rotation, but I've also seen some crappy pen teams win, too. I like Whit, Houck, Schreiber, Barnes, Taylor, Crawford and Kelly/German/Wink/Bazardo better than... Sale/Paxton/Pivetta/Bello and ______.
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It won't matter how good our pen is, if we start the year with these guys in the 1 to 5 slots: 1. Sale 2. Paxton 3. Pivetta 4. Bello 5. Crawford (depth: Wink, Seabold and maybe Mata, TWard or Walter by mid-season)
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They are now 4-0 and 7th or 8th ranked.
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I'm just quibbling about the term short-changed. Would Yankee fans really get irate, if the Met's offered him $400M/9, and Cashman wouldn't go higher? If I were a Yankee fan, I'd be more upset, if we countered with $405M/9. It would mean way less helping players for 9 years.
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I don't know what the rules are about what it takes to burn an option. I don't think there is any sort of "protection." Some players meet the requirement for using up an option- some don't. I don't think one quick call-up counts as using up an option, but maybe someone can explain how it works. Either way, if Dalbec had 2 options, before this year, he should still have one, next year. Cordero may be done.
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Without an ace and another solid SP'er, we won't need a pen. There will be few(er) high leverage situations after the 5th.
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We have no reliable ace in our system, either. While Whitlock and/or Houck may not seem like reliable closers, they are closer to one than Pivetta is to an ace.
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I should be more careful or specific in my use of terminology. My bad. German may end up as a 7th or 8th inning RP'er, but he needs to earn that.
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I'm not saying we don't need pen help. I'm just saying getting a solid SP'er is the number 1 priority- maybe number 2 to bringing Bogey back or replacing him without a major downgrade. The pen is #3, in my book. That's not downplaying that need. It's more about highlighting just how desperate we are to add an ace and a SS for 2023. I know counting on Schreiber is very risky, but so is counting on this rotation: Sale Paxton Pivetta Bello Crawford I see that as worse than this: Whitlock Houck Schreiber (Crawford?) Barnes Taylor Kelly/German/Danish/Bazardo/Brasier They both are high need areas. I was only responding to the portion of the position that said the pen was #1. You, yourself have said taking care of the Bogey (or SS decision) is the first priority, so I think we are in agreement- or close to one.
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I don't know the reason for demotion or the rules on burning options. He was also injured.
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9/26 O's @ SOX
moonslav59 replied to SPLENDIDSPLINTER's topic in Mike Grace Memorial Game Thread Forum
You miscalculated our ability to score more runs when allowing 14. -
If he's out of options, I'd try to trade Franchy or sneak him through waivers. If someone claims him, no big loss, IMO. soxprospects.com has Cordero with 1 option remaining and Dalbec with 2. Here is what is listed under "Burned Options:" The following players have been optioned in 2022 but have not yet burned their 2022 option Franchy Cordero Bobby Dalbec Hirokazu Sawumora
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With no Wacha, Nate of Hill, is the pen really a higher priority than the rotation, especially if Houck and Whitlock are locked into pen-only roles? (We only lose Strahm from the pen- the rest are addition by subtraction.)
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I hope at him!
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Even if we add 2 pen arms AND keep Whitlock and Houck in the pen, I still think German may win the last spot in the 8 man pen: 1. Whitlock 1A. Houck 3. Addition 4. Addition 5. Schreiber 6. Barnes (could lose spot in ST'ing) 7. Crawford (not a lock) 8. One from Taylor, Kelly, German, Danish, Bazardo or Brasier. This assumes no injuries by opening day.
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Yes, I meant 7th or 8th out of 8 pen arms- not to be used in the 7th and 8th, unless it's low leverage- to begin with, anyway.
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The problem is, if he hits .950 in AAA, next year over the first few months, does his stock rise all that much?
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I think we might, but his 1B D was so bad, he should only be considered at DH & LF. I think he has an option left, so, assuming he's healthy, he would be in AAA. I have him above Dalbec on my DFA/Trade list (a bad thing.)
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The funny thing is, well maybe not so funny, was the Sox gave him an extended look, when it counted most, and then sent him down to AAA, once the season was all but over. The "all day-all year" could have happened here, too, but I thing the disgust level was over the top for much too long.
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This year, he was the worst from a bunch of bad performers w RISP and men on base- no doubt, but he was just plain bad in every batting situation.
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Our pen has certainly been one of many weak points on the team. I do question the use of ERA, especially for RP'ers, since they often enter innings with 1-2 outs already and the full amount of runs allowed my be lessened by walk off hits. In other areas, our pen still looks bad, buy not always bottom 5. 9th in IP, which hints at forced overuse- shifting some of "the blame" to the starters or manager 21st in fWAR at 2.7 21st WHIP at 1.35 23rd xFIP at 4.55 (20th in FIP) 26th in ERA- at 110 Our SP'ers are... 21st in IP. 18th in FWAR at 8.8 18th xFIP at 4.09 21st in ERA- at 109 (about the same as the pen) 24th in WHIP at 1.34 (about the same as the pen) The pen deserves criticism, but you seem to focus only on them, when the starters forced more IP on them, and their injuries forced Houck and Whitlock to start some games and a few "pen games," along the way, as well.
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With Casas and Hosmer on the 26, it is more likely he starts in AAA, unless he's used as the DH or platoon DH. I doubt we keep Casas, Hosmer and Bobby Dee on the 26, at the same time, even with a platoon DH. I suppose we may trade Hosmer and use Pham, but then we have 2 RH'd hitters. It seems more likely we keep Hosmer on the 26 to platoon DH with Pham, Arroyo & Refsnyder. Dalbec starts in AAA.
