moonslav59

I think saying adding a minor league FA, so we don't count on Duran is an acceptable use of the Butterfly Man's name.

The Plan B would be a player signed to a minor league contract- perhaps with a date to be added to the ML roster or be released. We can't afford a RF'er and 4/5th OF'er on the budget. I doubt we go with 5 OF'ers on the 26, unless one DH's a big chunk of the time. Maybe Nimmo as RF and Mancini as DH/ corner OF and 1B depth, but even then, where do we go light, so we can afford those two?

I think the plan was to have Story fill the RH'd line-up gap lost with the Renfroe trade, and we'd just suck it up in the OF, when facing a lefty starter (22% of our games.) I think they felt JBJ, Duran, Dugo and Kike could do well enough to overcome that weakness on O vs LH'ers and JBJ would improve the defense by enough to not make the loss on O so bad. I think Arroyo was a patchwork failure. Refsnyder was a lucky find. Pham was too little -too late. The Kike slump and injury only made things worse, as it forced an already weak 4th OF'er into FT duty, but it also forced the Refsnyder call-up and success story.

I'd be fine with him as our 4th OF'er, but we need a FT RF'er- hopefully a RH'd or R/L batter. Adding a quality minor leaguer with ML experience would be better than counting on Duran. I don't think we have enough money to sign someone like Nimmo and a better 4th OF'er while also addressing so many other high need areas, as well.

Maybe, I'm wrong on my anti-playoffs are a crapshoot position.

Refsnyder was 2 PAs away from having the 4th most ST'ing PAs on the Sox. His .660 ST'ing OPS did not impress anyone. He, more or less, lucked into a chance after everything else failed. No way should he have been thought of as "part of the plan," early in the season. Bloom and Cora miscalculated the need. They miscalculated Arroyo's flexibility. They miscalculated JBJ and Duran's ability to hold their own on offense, with Duran's defense sucking as well.

I don't think Sox Nation would have been happy had Bloom/Cora said the RH'd corner OF bat need was solved with Refsnyder prior to opening day.

I'm not defending the lack of a RH'd OF bat on the early 2022 roster. I'm saying Story filled the line-up need for a solid RH'd bat with power, and solidified Kike's FT role in CF. Remember, he did start 49 games in the infield in 2021. The Story signing should have lessened that number, significantly and put a RH'd Kike's bat in the OF more often than 2021. That WAS NOT a solution to the problem, but should have lessened the need a little bit. Kike got hurt and did not hit well when healthy. That was not part of the plan. Refsnyder was not played much until June, but he did fill the need, nicely, so this whole Pham came too late thing rings a bit hollow. Bloom deserves criticism for not addressing the RH'd need at corner OF, but everything went wrong. Yes, we knew Duran had issues vs LH'd pitchers, but he totally sucked- even vs RH'ers. The Arroyo experiment failed. Thr Refsnyder experiment started late. Dugo even sucked early in the year, especially vs LH'ers. BTW, we faced 36 starting LH'ers, this year. Most came after Refsnyder became part of the OF rotation. We stuck with JBJ and Duran, too long. That's on Bloom and Cora. They both deserve some grief on this. I just don't think the plan was as bad as many make it out to be and that Story was meant to fix part of the problem that focused on about 22% of our games.

Not according to soxprospects.com: https://www.soxprospects.com/mlfa.htm I also found this... The following players burned their 2022 player option Eduard Bazardo Brayan Bello Ryan Brasier Kutter Crawford Tyler Danish Jaylin Davis Jeter Downs Jarren Duran Darwinzon Hernandez Ronaldo Hernandez Bryan Mata Kaleb Ort Connor Seabold Josh Winckowkski Connor Wong

Before we signed Story, some felt Kike and Arroyo would play 2B, and with Arroyo's health concerns, Kike may have played mroe 2B than anyone wanted. The Story signing filled the RH'd bat in the line-up need, but you are right- not the need for a RH'd OF'er. Making Kike the FT CF'er addressed that need a little bit, but we still needed a RH'd corner OF bat, and at the time, did not realize Refsnyder might have filled that need in April and May but was not given a long chance. I'm not defending the results, but the Story signing was designed to solve part of the issue in the OF and all of the RH'd line-up gap. Had we given Refsnyder the first chance in the OF over Duran, when Kike went on the IL, maybe we wouldn't be talking about this mistake, so much.

Agreed. They did still need a 4th OF'er, but I think they hoped Duran would do better. He would not have helped the RH'd need, but Refsnyder ended up filling the 4th OF'er/RH'd bat pretty well, but kinda too late. Story filled the RH'd bat need in the line-up. Duran and later, Refsnyder were too little too late in the OF, and losing Kike almost the whole year was too much to overcome.

I think the addition of the RH'd Story, which forced Kike to be the FT CF'er was how Bloom addressed the "RH'd hitting OF" gap. When Kike went on the IL, while JBJ was stinking up the place, then Story went out, the whole plan collapsed. It didn't help that 80% of our rotation went out around the same time, as well.

I like them both, but I think their small MLB sample sizes were just enough to flip them. I still like German.

It's also harder to build your farm with lower picks and bonus pool money, because to did not finish with a bottom 10 or 12, and if you overspend by too much and for too long, you make it even harder. All-in-all, I think we rebuilt the farm faster, deeper and stronger than I expected, although it is almost all speculation, at this point. Many of DD's farm additions are showing more immediate promise, while Bloom's offer mostly longer term promise. The budget is becoming more flexible, although needing to replace some longtime producers just about outweighs the loss of dead money. IMO, we are very close to the balance sought after, but a lot will depend on how well this winter's additions do for us, going forward. We can't have too many Richards, Paxtons, Marwins and JBJs. We need to score big on our major additions while also finding the next Wacha, Strahm, Schreiber and Refsnyder.

Did they sign these guys to extensions while rookies?

It's something most of us know, already, but I do think they and many of us felt like we had an opening day roster that could compete for a playoff slot that we ended up missing by 8 games. It was also obvious that this was not the year they chose to go "all in" or even nearly all in.

Heard on Houston sports talk radio how Cole was complaining about having to pitch a warm up session at 10- bleeping- 40 in the morning, instead of being back home grilling with Mike Trout. More talk about the ace of the Yanks being the hardest job in MLB. lmao!

I meant to highlight him in RED.

Yes, I forgot him. He's apparently not Rule 5 but a minor league FA. I went back and added him.

We'd likely have had to give up at least one from Mayer, Casas or Bello plus one from Bleis, Rafaela, Mata & Yorke- maybe 2.

If we counted prospects who graduated, this year- Bello, Crawford, Winckowski & Duran- maybe this might be my end of season Top 40 Rankings: 1. Bello 2. Mayer 3. Casas 4. Bleis 5. Rafaela 6. Mata 7. Romero 8. Yorke 9. Walter 10. Paulino 11. Anthony 12. Perales 13. Wong 14. W Gonzalez 15. E Valdez 16. M Lugo 17. T Ward 18. B Jordan 19. B Bonaci 20. N Hickey 21. N Kavadas 22. C Murphy 23. W Abreu 24. C Crawford 25. C Murphy 26. E Rodriguez-Cruz 27. Z Kelly 28. F German 29. J Winckowski 30. J Duran 31. C Coffey 32. S Drohan 33. B Brannon 34. A Binelas 35. D Hamilton 36. R Hernandez 37. J Paez 38. E Bazardo 39. T Uberstine 40. Downs & Seabold

The Rays did extend Longoria in April of his rookie year, but I'm not sure the Guardians signed young players that early.

Sounds good, but most of the best of the best get 4+ years.

The End of 2022 Forty Man Roster (Assuming no options, extensions or re-signings, but all arbs are listed) In order of seniority on 40 Man (Red=Bubble) Barnes Sale Devers (arb 3 of 3) Brasier (3 of 3) Taylor (2 of 4) DHern Dalbec Verdugo (2 of 3) Pivetta (2 of 3) Arroyo (2 of 3) Houck Mata Wong Seabold Whitlock Kike RHern Duran Crawford Downs Winckowski Bello Story Danish Cordero (2 of 3) Schreiber Refsnyder (2 of 3) Ort McGuire (1 of 3) Hosmer Kelly Bazardo Casas Almonte (1 of 3) Chang (1 of 3) German McGee That's 37 players plus maybe 4 Rule 5'ers... Rule 5: Wilyer Abreu Ceddanne Rafaela Brandon Walter Thaddeus Ward Enmanuel Valdez (Minor League FA) Not Likely to be protected or drafted: Murphy Hamilton Paulino Wikelman V Santos J Wallace Bonaci Cottam Granberg

2023 Red Sox Projected Lux Tax Budget ($Millions)- Not counting Free Agents 25.6 Sale 23.3 Story 10.0 Kike 9.4 Barnes 4.7 Whitlock 73.0 TOTAL Under Contract Arbs (MLBTR Projections): 16.9 Devers 3rd or 3 6.9 Verdugo 2nd of 3 5.9 Pivetta 2nd of 3 2.3 Brasier 3rd of 3 (non tender?) 2.2 Arroyo 2nd of 4 1.6 Refsnyder 2nd of 3 1.5 Cordero 2nd of 3 (non tender?) 1.3 McGuire 2nd of 3 1.1 Taylor 2nd of 4 .90 Almonte 1st of 3 .90 Chang 1st of 3 ~41.0 TOTAL Arb Estimates (assuming no non tenders) TOTAL: $114M ~$2.3 40 Man Players in Minors ~$1.7 0-3 yr Bonus Pool ~$16 Player Benefits $134M Lux Tax Total Before any additions Lux Tax Line for 2023: $232M $98M remaining to spend to reach the Lux Tax line. Options/Buy Outs: $20M x 3 Bogey (Player Option) Will likely be offered a QO, if not extended. $13M x 2 Paxton (Paxton has $4M player option) no Buy Out. $12M Pham w $1.5M buyout $8M JBJ Buyout (does not count on ’23 tax line) Possible QO: Eovaldi (maybe), Wacha (not likely), JD (very unlikely)