moonslav59

The thing I look at is winter spending in light of what salary was shed those winters. From 2019 to 2020, we saw a massive budget cut led by shedding the Price and Betts contracts, but also some other players no re-signed. We basically filled many slots with about $40M in winter spending- mostly 1 year deals. There were less holes to fill between 2020 and 2021, thanks in part to some crafty deadline trades, but we still only spent about $40M that winter, too, in new spending. This past winter, it looked like we were heading to the same end result, until the Story signing jumped our new spending by quite a bit. The first major signing since the Bogey and Sale extensions. Even if we had a normal infusion of quality prospects from 2018 to mid 2022, the budget restraints, alone, would have made it very tough to put together a top contending team. I get the crapshoot argument. I get the results from 2021 being a strong counterpoint to the whole idea of there being an extended downturn or "cliff." It's a great point. I'm not denying it, but I'm also not going to sugarcoat the long term affects the "all in" nature of the 2016-2019 window had on the 2019-2022 team outlook and results. It was a significant factor in our struggles these past 3-4 years. I'll say it again. The term cliff and the implied longer term nature of that word was not a good choice of words, in hindsight. I was wrong to think we'd be bad for 2-3 years straight. I can write it a hundred times, if that would help some of you understand I mean it. I was wrong. I was not wrong about the team having struggles for multiple years due to everything that was done before Bloom took over. The degree and nonconsecutiveness of the struggles shows it was not as bad as many of us felt it would be. I'd like to point out that it has not been as rosy as those denying a downturn was unavoidable made it out to be, either.

So, Montero signed for about $35M/3. Would anyone here have offered him $12M x 3? I might have. Diaz got $102M/5. Big NOPE from me on outbidding that.

I do think one could look at the totality of 2020-2022 and maybe not call it a "cliff." I'm fine with saying that term was wrong, because it implies more than just one year, but these last 3 years were far from the level of 2018. Say I'm moving the goalpost. I am. Say a cliff can't be just one year. Fine. The fact is going all in for the window from 2026-2019 had severe consequences and some are being felt, right now, too. At the risk of sounding like a broken record: 1. From Devers in mid 2017 to Bello & Casas in 2022, we went 5 years with only Houck, Dalbec and Duran being noteworthy call-ups, and two of them are nothing to be excited about anymore. 2. The budget crunch caused by the signings and extensions made before 2019 caused some very impactful decisions to be made by top brass and Bloom, including dumping Price's contract and letting Betts go a year before his time was up. It may have also contributed to why Bogey and or Devers might be leaving, as well. 3. The decline of many of the biggest and brightest stars of 2018 was inevitable and predictable. It was not some extreme position to think a downturn was coming. We can argue about what word to call it or how long it occured, but let's not say there were no effects from that window. While nobody is actually saying "no effects," I do get the sense some are b ending over backwards to minimize it while accusing us for bending over backwards to show the downturn happened as predicted. I'm not denying I thought it would be longer than 1 year. I did not think 2019 would be the start of the decline. I even argued, with luck and investment, we could extend the window to 2020. The s*** hit the fan. No moves were made at the 2019 deadline, and rightfully so, and a big part of the team was blown up heading into 2020, despite the Sale injury and ERod COVID issue. The 2020 team, even if relatively healthy, was not even close to the 2018 team, and there was no hope for anything from the farm arriving to bail us out. To me, that is reality. We can say there never was a cliff. Those who denied it can point fingers and gloat all you want, and in many respects, you were right. There is also much they got wrong, but nis anyone of them admitting it? Did we rebuild the farm in 1-2 short years? Did JH "just spend more" to keep us on top? That is what the cliff-deniers were saying? Were they right? Were they more right than the "cliff dwellers?" I don't think you can answer that with a clear yes. IMO, the answer is No, but that is just my opinion which could easily be biased. (lol)

Really? I did not know that. You know what the point was. Of course, an OF'er will never get credited with a save, unless he's pitching.

I'm responding to you and others. Why do the deniers keep bringing it up?

Stop. I said some could have called it a fluke.

Betts jumped. JD had a contract and will not return. Bogey is about to jump. Devers may soon.

I have admitted many times I was wrong about the cliff being this short. I'm not sure what more I have to say. I don't hear any cliff deniers admitting anything. Why not say something to them? Why not say something to those who swore the farm could be rebuilt to prominence in 1-2 years? I brought up the "fluke" nature of 2021 within the context of what happened in 2022. I like our chances of making the playoffs, this year, too, but as it turned out, maybe the cliff of 2020 is carrying over- not as a cliff by name, but not really being at "cliff level." IMO, we are still feeling the effects of what happened during and after 2019.

I don't see it that way. I admitted I was wrong about the length of the cliff, but I knew we were not going to see the farm rebuilt overnight. We won in 2021 due to amazingly good health, outlier years by Bobby Dee and others, and some decent moves by Bloom. It was unexpected- much like the drop in 2019 was, and many argue we cannot view that as part of the cliff, because expectations were high before '19. Why do the poor expectations prior to 2021 not count for anything?

How many times do I need to say we were wrong about the length? I did bring up that 2022 could be called part of the cliff, if you can view 2021 as a fluke- like many viewed 2013, but I never said that is fact.

Again, I did not. I said it "COULD" be called... It's funny how some bring up our feelings before 2019 as evidence 2019 was not the start of the cliff, but how we felt before 2021 matters little.

It doesn't. I said it could be viewed as such, especially after we saw what happened in 2022. To few injuries in '21 or too many in '22- maybe it was not fluke. Maybe the cliff was just 1 year, and we were wrong about the length of the cliff. One thing is for certain, if the cliff was just one year long, it wasn't because we rebuilt the farm overnight like many cliff deniers claimed we could do.

No. I'm saying many of us knew the roster was in trouble and there would be budget cuts that would force us to lose some of the few good players left over. Bloom, or whoever, chose to dump 2 players not 3-4, so yes, the pending budget cuts played into the belief that a cliff was coming- not just declining talent and a near barren farm.

Certainly, most posters who predicted a cliff expected more than 1 year, but just because there was only one year that could be called a fluke occurred in between 2 bad years, doesn't mean the whole idea was entirely wrong. Some of us predicted tough times ahead- other denied it.

I couldn't tell if the kids even had their eyes open. If you think Kimbrel deserved the save more than Beni, it's your right.

What's your point? Did some fans think he was under team control for 4 more years and would keep pitching well for us and help prevent the cliff?

2020 was Wile E. Coyote.

It was predictable we'd suck badly in 2020, no matter how many games were played. Sure, we'd have done better with Sale and ERod, but the rest of the team was relatively healthy. A serious down point was predicted and occurred. No amount of revisionist history will change that fact. To your other point, no I did not think 2019 would be the start of the cliff, but it turned out to be a strong sign it was about to hit the fan. It wasn't just the fact that all we got from our farm after Devers in 2017 was Houck, Dalbec and Duran. It was also about the severe budget crunch we knew would happen, due to so many star players nearing free agency and a lot of big contracts already on the books- such as Sale, Bogey, JD and Nate after 2019. To me, it was obvious. To others, apparently not. I will say, I thought the down part would be longer than 1 year, but I guess one could call 2021 a fluke and say it has been 3 years long, already (2020-2022.) To those who denied the cliff by saying all we need to do is rebuild the farm, they were right, but they were wrong about the time it takes to do so, plus the delay time before seeing actual big results. If it wasn't for Bloom's acquisition of Whitlock, we'd be looking at newcomers Bello and Casas as the only young, homegrown impact players on the team, except for maybe Houck. How could there not be a cliff (or serious downturn, if you dislike that term) with that farm impact and a tightening budget?

And, we saw the budget crunch coming as part of why there would be a cliff. Remember, Price was also dumped, and he was a big part of 2018.

Nope & Nope. He doesn't even get to #1. #2 was grandma worthy.

Trade for a SP'er and sign FA RP'ers is the best plan.

Who is? All I'm saying was that it was predictable. I'm so sure those others were, but call them "valleys," too, if you wish.

Part of the whole idea of an impending cliff was over the budget situation, and dumping Betts and Price was part of the situation at hand after 2019. We cut about $60M from 2019. If that is not a re-write of the team, what is?

Yes on 1- No on 2.

It may hav4e been shorter than many of us imagines it would be, and maybe that is one reason we have been more supportive of Bloom's work rebuilding the team from that horrific 2020 trench, cliff, valley or whatever you want to call it. It was real. It happened.