moonslav59
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Everything posted by moonslav59
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I've suggested this type of contract maneuver, before. I'd rather have Devers at $26M x 12 than $30M x 10.
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It was a catchy phrase that fit the frugal winter spending budgets in 2020 and 2021.
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As much as Nate has seemed to re-invent himself since 2018, he's still not as dependable as I'd like. He's done way better than earlier in his career but he has started 84 out of 111 possible starts after 2018. That's barely over 75%. He'll turn 33 before the start of 2023. I wouldn't mind seeing him back, but not for more than a year or two. It's not like other FA SP'ers are wowing me, and I still think trading for a SP'er makes the most sense, but we will likely have to roll the dice on 1 or 2 free agent SP'er. Nate is not a bigger gamble than most others.
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$26M x 10 would be a contract I'd be happy with. $28M x 10 would be okay. $30M x 10 would probably be too much, but I'd do it. Devers is special. Devers Forevers!
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$85-95M is a good chunk of change, and we have less holes to fill this winter than any of the past 3 winters. SS RF SP P RP RP We might get by with 5.
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I'd like to see us find a way to fit Click into our management structure- somehow. He made some good moves in the short time with the Astros, and the Rays Way plus money seems to work.
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Bonaci had the most BBs (89) in all of the minor leaguers who did not have more K's than BBs. Bonaci had 89 BBs and 89 Ks. Adael Amador (COL) had 87 BBs and 67 Ks Juan Brito (COL) had 78-71. The Sox have 3 of the minor league top BB leaders (2 had some in other systems): 2. Abreu 114 (also 31 SB/ 3 CS) 5. Kavadas 102 (also 52 XBHs in 393 ABs) 10. Ferguson 96 (also 65 SB/ 5 CS) Speaking of SBs, we protected David Hamilton, who had 70 SBs and just 8 CS.
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Troll!
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The thing is, he can make the bigs on his D alone. Add the versatile D, and he will make it in some role. Yes, his bat will determine 4th OF/Utility status vs FT'er or even All Star, and I share in SP's and MVP's concerns about that ever happening. If we are going to trade a top prospect but want to keep Bello, Casas, Mayer and Bleis, who is left that can net us some solid talent?
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AP Top 13 1. Georgia 11-0 (v GA Tech, then SEC Championship game) 2. Ohio State 11-0 (v Michigan, then Big 10 game, if they win) 3. Michigan 11-0 (@ Ohio St, then Big 10 game, if they win) 4. TCU 11-0 (v IA St, then championship game) 5. USC 10-1 (v #13 ND, then Pac 10 game) 6. LSU 9-2 (@ TX A&M, then maybe SEC game) 7. Clemson 10-1 (v upstart South Carolina, then ACC game) 8. Alabama 9-2 (v Auburn) 9. Tennessee 9-2 (@ Vandy) 10. Oregon 9-2 (@#23 Ore St) 11. Penn St. 9-2 (v Mich St) 12. Washington 9-3 (@ Wash St) 13. Notre Dame 8-3 (@ #5 USC)
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Agreed.
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You tell me. You brought it up.
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That's big if and the big "gamble," if we choose to trade him, this winter. Personally, I think he's worth more than the 15 BTV gives him, but trading Mayer, when we need a SS seems less likely. We do need an OF'er, too and another one after Kike leaves, and Rafaela could probably be a plus D SS, too. Tough decisions to make. More likely, we trade neither one.
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Not likely, the same as any big loss in a Henry investment would hurt the sox winter player spending budget. Your statement about the forced sale of Liverpool made it sound like Henry might have less to spend on the Sox, when the opposite would be truer.
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Might Perales be viewed as "too far away" to be selected next winter? He might be too damn good to not protect, no matter what the ETA is.
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I really like Rafaela. His defense and flexibility are huge pluses and make him valuable, even if his bat never amounts to anything above average. I don't think this small sample size changes his trade value or likelihood, but I do see him as one of the obvious subjects of this winter's trade suggestions.
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"Forced to sell." That's a good one. You do know the massive profit that will be made, right? Enough to pay several Dodger payrolls, for sure.
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Even if he lost $90M or more on a venture such as that, there is no reason to expect it to force a tightening of the Red Sox winter spending budget.
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I did not expect him to do as well as he did in 2021 nor as poorly in 2022. I think, overall, he's done about as expected. I'm hopeful 2023 will be closer to 2021 than 2022, and he can play over 140 games.
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A look at our lux tax history under Henry: Over/Under the Tax line: -12 '03 +10 '04 -11 '05 +1 '06 +7 '07 -8 '08 -23 '09 +1 '10 -4 '11 -2 '12 -0.3 '13 -3 '14 +11 '15 +15 '16 -3 '17 +43 '18 +38 '19 -23 '20 -2 '21 +12 '22 Some obvious patterns: 1. Never 3 years over the tax line in a row. 2. Several times going under for 2 or more seasons in a row (once for 4 years) 3. Only 2 seasons being under the tax line by more than $12M (2009 & 2020). 4. Almost all the years under the tax since 2009 were by less than $4M. (6 under $4M and only 2020 was by more) 5. Only 2 seasons saw us go over by more than $15M- 2018 and 2019.
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Maybe. I'm going on the assumption we once again, end up near the tax line, knowing full well I could be wrong to the plus or the minus.
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BTV accepts this: Rafaela, Dugo, Walter and Jordan for Lopez, Soler and Berti (Soler as a salary dump who can play LF for the Sox in 2023.) We then sign Bogey or Correa and a couple very solid pen arms and are still way under the tax line- enough to sign Nate or Kluber and a catching upgrade. 1. Berti RF 2. Devers 3B 3. Story 2B 4. Correa/Bogey SS 5. Kike CF 6. Casas 1B 7. Soler LF 8. Dalbec-Hosmer-Valdez-Arroyo-Refsnyder DH/Bench 9. McGuire/Wong SP: Lopez, Sale/Paxton (count as one), Whitlock, Nate or Kluber, Bello, Pivetta RP: _____, Houck, _____, Schreiber, Barnes, Kelly, Crawford/Wink/Mata/Brasier/Taylor/German/Politi
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I was just thinking that naming a one for one player might make more sense- maybe someone valued a little more than Mayer is - like... 66 Logan Gilbert (5 yrs of control) 64 Freddy Peralta (4) 61 Zac Gallen (3) 57 Max Fried (just 2 yrs) 57 Shane Bieber (just 2 yrs) 51 Christian Javier (3 yrs but worth less than Mayer on BTV) .
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Other than carry-overs from this year's Rule 5 list, here are some of the newbies that will be eligible in 2023's Rule 5 Draft: Jacinto Arredondo Rivaldo Avila Bradley Blalock Maceo Campbell Allan Castro Juan Chacon Casey Cobb Nathanael Cruz Kelvin Diaz Jordan DiValerio Shane Drohan Juan Daniel Encarnacion Jose Garcia Jhon Garcia Jhostynxon Garcia Alexis Hernandez Graham Hoffman Lyonell James Robert Kwiatkowski Chih-Jung Liu Blake Loubier Matthew Lugo Yorberto Mejicano Jose Mendez Henry Núñez Luis Perales Railin Perez Ronald Rosario Cesar Ruiz Johnfrank Salazar Reidis Sena Karson Simas Cesar Soto Joey Stock Nate Tellier Brian Van Belle Diego Viloria Jeremy Wu-Yelland
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I think, by opening day, we will have a roster where most baseball prognosticators pick us as a probable wild card team. How we get there is the 90 million dollar question.
