moonslav59

That's how I have always seen it, but to me, $170/6 or $190/7 is too much. His bat should be very good for most of a long deal, but that's a lot to pay for a LF'er or 3B/2B. Probably 3B would be best, and maybe by then Devers will be "ready" to move to 1B as Mayer becomes our long term SS. This squeezes Casas, but it's not a bad problem to have. Personally, I'd offer Bogey $160/6 and go to $170/6 or $190/7 only if Correa is getting Seager money and what Swanson gets plus the loss of a draft pick is deemed too much as well. I hope we get one of these 3, but I get a bad feeling we won't. We may view Mayer as too close to the bigs to go large and long at SS. I guess, if Bogey agrees to move off SS in a couple years, he might be the best choice of the 3, but if we don't go large and long at SS, where and ow do we spend the $90M? It won't be Judge. Nimmon has the lost draft pick attached and will have so many teams bidding for him, he will likely be grossly overpaid. deGrom? I doubt it. We don't have 9 roster slots open to sign nine $10M decent but not great players. We barely have 6 slots for six $15M players, but can anyone name exactly six $15M players we could sign to make this team a strong contender? Or three $20M guys plus three $10M guys? I'm wondering, if we end up going for a guy like Verlander, so we don't hamper longer term budget issues. Maybe trade for Sean Murphy, sign Conforto/Gallo/Bellinger/Beni to play corner OF, add a couple solid pen arms and go cheap at SS. This winter's FA crop, other than SS, doesn't fit our needs too well.

Great post. If we look at last year's Seager, Semien, Baez and Story signings, as unfulfilling as Story looked in 2022, I'd rather have him at $140/6 than any of the others, and I believe he was the last to sign. I can see the point being made about thinking we have to know how much we will spend at SS and 3B before knowing how much we have to spend elsewhere, but I'm sure management has worked out dozen of permutations and scenarios beyond plan Z. Also, say for example we are thinking we want Bogey, but if we don't get him and will go cheap at SS, and instead go hard after Nimmo, wouldn't we tell Nimmo's agent to wait until our SS situation is settled before letting him sign elsewhere for less? I do think these types of conversations are made between GMs and agents. It is likely we have a plan like this: We will sign Correa or Bogey, unless the price is way too high, and we settle on Swanson. What's the difference in AAV? Maybe $3-9M? Is that amount enough to determine we can't sign other players we want before deciding on SS? I think not.

True, and also the worst season (2020) by winning % since 1965 was DD's (plus JH's wallet shrinking) creation.

Two major differences between now and past Rule 5 Drafts: 1. There was not one, last year, so this year has more good ones on the list. 2. This is the first Rule 5 Draft since rosters were expanded to 26. If we really think Ward was worth protecting, we must think 5-6 guys should be DFA'd to keep him. Same with said player.

Unless said player is better than Ward and the guy the will DFA. (He really needs to be better than 5-6 on our 40, as we will be adding 4-6 min, IMO.

MLBTR lists some of the best Rule 5 players available. Will the Sox nab one? Erik Miller RHP PHI Malcom Nunez 1B PIT Tahnaj Thomas RP PIT Jose Ramos OF LAD (A+ ball) Carlos Duran SP LAD (A+) Korry Howell UT SDP Corey Julks LF HOU Ryan Ward LF/RF LAD Dominic Canzone OF AZ EDgar Barclay RP NYY Another site (justbaseball) has these players: Daysbel Hernandez RHP ATL Matt Tabor RHP AZ Omar Cruz LHP PIT Seth Corry LHP SFG Kade McClure RHP CWS Robinson Pina RHP LAD Brady Feigl RHP OAK Tim Cate LHP WSH Blake Hunt C TBR Josh Breaux C NYY Samad Taylor 2B/OF TOR Vinny Capra 3B TOR Luken Baker 1B STL Michael Stefanic 2B LAA Miles Mastrobuoni SS/OF TBR Buddy Kennedy 3B AZ David Villar 3B SFG Carlos Rincon LF/RF NYM Griffin Conine RF MIA Nick Plummer LF STL Ryan Noda 1B/LF LAD Oscar Gonzalez RF CLE The only Sox player listed was Gilberto Jimenez, so I'm not sure about this site.

Santana signs with Pirates for $6.75M. Bloom asleep at the wheel, again! Geeesh!

I'm just not seeing why so many are expecting failure with this winter's moves. Bloom did not do too badly with a highly restricted budget. Nobody knows how well he will do, but there is little reason to expect turkeys.

We've won a ring in 21% of the seasons since 2004 (4/19.) We won 25% with DD (1/4,) but if no way we'd have won a ring in 2020 with DD at the helm and a mandates budget cut, so he'd be at 20% (1/5) or worse, if he stayed beyond 2020. I'm not bashing DD. He did great things, here, and I am very happy he was our GM. I just don't see him as the type of GM to take on the challenge of 2020 and the next 2+ years. Just my opinion. I could be wrong.

Strategic point making.

IMO, it is very uncommon to have 33 new players added to the 40 man roster added after Feb 2020. Maybe no so uncommon to see 29 added after the 2020 season. It was nearly a total rebuild, and I'm not even talking about dozens of players who came and went as bridge players to the next piece in the rebuild. Almost every trade, even many at the deadline, involved us getting prospects. Even the Ottavino trade was made to get German. I still swear the JBJ trade was ab out the prospects. The Beni trade involved 4 prospects. The Betts trade- 2. The deadline deals, this year involved gaining 4 prospects. From the end of 2019 until the Story signing, we were in rebuild mode. Not tear down everything for a 5-6 year rebuild plan, but "rebuild" is the correct term, IMO.

No, but they were. We have like 5-6 guys on the 40 that were on it in 2019, and some may be gone, soon.

Certainly, the Astros tried harder to improve their pen than we did. I think Bloom did just as good, at the deadline, as HOU did.

Rebuilds usually entail shorter term or "bridge" contracts, but I expect to start seeing more deals like Story's, this winter.

I seriously doubt they told Bloom not to worry about the budget. I'm pretty sure they never want to go over the tax line 3 years in a row. The pattern seems to show they stay near the line and try to avoid consecutive years over the line, but to answer your question, nobody really knows for sure.

Looking forward to turkey sandwiches and all the great sides. The pie is almost gone!

Montero pitched just 6 innings for HOU in 2021. Graveman did okay in 23 IP (3.60 FIP but 1.391 WHIP) Maton did not help: 25 IP w 4.97 ERA and 1.618 WHIP & 4.08 FIP Again, I'm not saying Robles and Davis did great, but they did okay, and you left out Rios, who pitched more than Davis and almost as much as Robles: 25 IP Robles 3.60 ERA/ 1.360 WHIP (3.37 FIP) 24 IP Rios 3.70 ERA/ 1.110 WHIP (4.90 FIP) 17 IP Davis 4.86 ERA/ 1.500 WHIP (3.95 FIP)

Robles did okay, overall. I'm sure the goal is never to finish in last, and I think only 2020 was a year we kind of expected it. My scenarios were meant as end result preferences- not something we plan for, but I do see cycling your "all in" years makes sense.

I hope everyone enjoyed their Thanksgiving. Ours was a unique one. We had planned to go to our daughter's longtime boyfriend's house for dinner. We were set to bring the turkey, stuffing, cranberry & orange relish, pumpkin & pecan pies and ice cream, while their family was to make the ham, sweet potato casserole, spinach casserole, but the boyfriend came down with Covid (mild, so far), so we ended up doing a food exchange and ate at our own homes. It worked out well, but was a bit disappointing. Dec 4-7 Winter Meetings Dec 7 Rule 5 Draft Jan 13 Arb Exchange Deadline

We did add Schwarber, too, and Robles & Davis did pretty well for us. I know we may never win again, in my lifetime, but I'd prefer we plan to go all in every 3-6 years and win more rings than do what the Yanks have done over the last 15 years. I know there are no guarantees, but I'd prefer these 10 year scenarios in this order: 1. Two rings, 3 playoffs w no rings, 3 last place finishes 2. One ring, 5 playoffs w no rings, 2 last place finishes 3. One ring, 4 playoffs w no rings, 1 last place. 4. One ring, 3 playoffs w no rings, 0 last place. 5. No rings, 7 playoffs w no rings, 1 last place. 6. No rings, 6 playoffs w no rings, 0 last place.

The most exciting part of 2022, to me, was watching Schreiber, Bello, Casas, Kelly and yes, even McGuire and German. Wacha, Devers, Bogey, Strahm, Story and a few others provided some excitement, but it seemed like we were doomed for failure way too early in the season for my liking. I'm not proud of it, but I gave up nearly all hope earlier than most, here. It just seemed like a snake bite year, most exemplified by the saga of Sale.

To me, I'm willing to endure last place finishes, if it means we are on our way toward rebuilding to another ring season, but it does suck all those seasons, and it didn't seem like we should have done that poorly in some of those years. The "happy medium" the Cards seem to employ seems like a worthy strategy, as with the Rays, but the Rays have yet to reach the full glory of a ring season. I don't think we'll every become the Dodgers (or the Yanks of old,) but they have done a great job keeping their farm solid, while winning and getting low draft picks and smaller IFA bonus money than anyone else. Right now, the Astros and Braves seem to be doing things the right way. They have good farms, young talent under team control for many years and a solid 26 man roster. The Rays and A's should get credit for putting together many decent teams with meager funding, but comparing us to them is not something I'd do. I'm very happy with our results over the past 2 decades. I hope we get our 5th ring, soon, but if it is 2-3 years away, I'm fine. 5 rings in 22-23 years sure beats what I went through for the 3 decades of being a Sox fan prior to 2004.

What really should be the expectations when you are handed these winter spending budgets with so many holes to fill? 2020: $40M and about 12 roster slots to fill (The $40M did not even come close to replacing lost contracts that included Betts, Price & Porcello) 2021: $40M and about 9 roster slots filled 2022: $50M and about 7 slots filled All this with basically just Houck positively contributing anything from the farm over those 3 seasons. Maybe, expectations were set, too high. It's hard to work miracles within this context. Granted, Bloom has not worked all that many wonders with his FA signings, although what is usually expected when forced to sign 2nd and 3rd tier FAs? He did well with Wacha, Strahm, Hill, Refsnyder, Kelly, Kike '21 version, Renfroe & Ottavino (trade w German for Yankee salary dump) Rule 5 & Waiver additions: Whitlock, Schreiber, Arroyo (Ort Trade additions: Pivetta, McGuire, Hosmer (free salary), German, W Abreu, D Hamilton, E Valdez, Verdugo, Wong, Downs, RHernandez (Seabold, Cordero, and a whole bunch of prospects, including Binelas, Wallace, Koss, Ferguson, Rosier and Park) The Story signing is still too early to judge, but he looks better than Semien & Baez. Not so well with: Paxton, Diekman (although dumping him for McGuire seems to more than make up for the signing), Richards, Perez, Marwin & Andriese (both only $3M) I'm not saying Bloom deserves a "feather" for the overall grade for these moves, but given the circumstances he was handed, he looks to have done a pretty good job building the roster depth and farm to a point where the foundation is to a point where a handful of major additions via free agency or trade and about $90M to spend, this winter, the outlook looks way more positive than it has at anytime since before the 2019 season began. I see an overall plus. We have about 15-18 prospects or recent grads that will likely be given serious looks, this year. The amount of slots on the roster needing serious upgrading is at about 5-7- maybe 8, which is way better than 2020 (about 19-21), 2021 (about 11-13) and 2022 (about 8-10.) The $90M spending budget is more than Bloom has had to spend in any of his other 2 years combined, and that's not counting the $10M he already spent on extending Kike. (He had about $130M winter spending in his 3 years, combined, while losing key salaries like Betts, which to me brings the actual number closer to $100M.) He has about $100M to spend in 2023, counting Kike, so let's give the guy a chance to set his legacy as our GM. This may very well be a sink or swim year for Bloom, but if he does a decent but not great job, and our future continues to grow brighter, as it has every year, I think he may still be the GM in 2024, even if we lose the first round of the WC series. It should be an exciting winter season, for once.

TBR with 8 (1 WC loss)

I remember thinking signing Scherzer or Verlander to shorter deals might be the best idea, since we seemed to be avoiding super large and long deals. Here are the biggest deals, last winter. How many look good, now? $43 x 3 Scherzer $35 x 3 Correa (opted out) $33 x 10 Seager $27 x 6 Freeman $26 x 7 Bryant $25 x 7 Semien $25 x 2 Verlander $24 x 3 Stroman $23 x 6 Story $23 x 6 Baez $23 x 5 R Ray $22 x 5 Gausman $22 x 2 Rodon $21 x 1 Syndergaard $20 x 5 Castellenos $20 x 4 Schwarber $20 x 4 Marte other 4+ Years 15.4 x 5 ERod 15 x 4 C Taylor 14.5 x 4 R Iglesias 14 x 4 Jon Gray 13 x 4 Av Garcia 11 x 4 Matz