moonslav59

Well said, and you have to guess right to even pay for a 7 WAR guy and get 4-5. The highest salary signing list is littered with total failures- some even from day one (like Crawford, Pablito and HRam) and another big chunk of the list is paying for 3-7 WARs and getting 1-3 WARs. Look at the list and tell me what percent reached even 5 out of the hoped 7 level. Look at the Sox list, and it might be even worse, especially if you count the Agon & Sale extensions. I get your point, but with such odds against you, it makes some sense to think spreading the risk is a better strategy. It worked in 2013, but that may be an outlier and not something you try to repeat.

Thanks for enlightening me. I would have never thought that. I'm not happy we lost any of these guys. Nobody is. It's not the only way to win and make fans happy, though, and that's not a defense of anyone, because we aren't winning and don't look to be in 2023, either.

No doubt. I wanted us to offer Betts $400M/14. I disagree on it being so obvious to pay Bogey what he wanted, but surely with the market explosion, what he wanted a year or more ago, would look pretty good, now. I do have concerns about his not wanting to move off SS. I'd like to have kept Lester and Betts. I was never traumatized on losing Beni. I'm not 100% sold on Bogey locked up for 7-8 years will prove to be a major mistake, but it certainly sucks, right now. It's not the only way to win, however, and fans would be pissed having our stars while losing, too. We had all these guys in 2019, a high budget, and we still lost and looked to be getting worse not better.

100% agreed. I will add that I'm not sure this is all Bloom's choosing, but I'm the one who said this winter would likely set his "legacy" (maybe not the first) and was his "flashpoint" moment. I'm fully prepared to join the Bloom bashing brigade, and lump Kennedy and others into the discussion, too. The winter is not over, yet, but we know Bogey is gone. Nobody liked that. I think there is still time to salvage the overall winter grade to a point where I'll think we are good enough to at least, say "Let's see how the 2023 team does, before bouncing Bloom and the whole top brass group." As unlikely as it seems to many, here, a Devers extension would repair much of the deep feelings of disgust with Sox management. A few other moderate additions might make me actually think we have a shot at the playoffs. Of course, we'd need quite a few things to go right, namely good health to 3 out 4 of Sale, Paxton, Kike, Story, and some help from the kids, but it's not impossible. I'm also thinking that having Bogey, Nate and JD back on 2+ year deals would not necessarily make us winners, either. Except for Bogey, non of the guys we lost from the 2022 team were the 2018 versions of themselves. I think I might get a little bit excited over this team: 1. Yoshida DH 2, Story 2B 3. Devers 3B 4. Turner DH 5. Casas 1B 6. Kike CF 7. Dugo/Ref RF 8. Andrus SS 9. McGuire/Wong C Bench: Arroyo/Dalbec/Ref/Wong SP1 Sale and Paxton combined SP2 Whitlock SP3 Kluber SP4 Bello SP5 Pivetta RP1 Jansen RP2 Martin RP3 Houck RP4 Schreiber RP5 Barnes RP6 Joely RP7 Mills RP8 Brasier/Taylor/Crawford/Wink/Kelly/German/Mata and others That offense might be much better than 2022. The defense ay 1B, 2B, CF and C should be better. Maybe worse at LF and RF. The rotation was not great in 2022 and this one does not look better, but would bringing Nate, Wacha and Hill back be more promising? The pen should be light years better, despite Whitlocks removal from it.

Once we started losing in 2019, the Kimbrel and kelly loses were hot topics- along with the babying SP'ers in ST'ing.

It was my own belief that we had reached the point where we were 4-5 key players away from a good chance at glory and had $80M to fill those slots. It seemed like enough. The statement made to Kike about getting better fed my optimism. I did not expect hearing Bloom's statement about adding 7-9 players. That's what we did, last winter, and I thought we'd lessened the slot need totals. I wrongly assumed the Sox felt the same way, and the market price explosions changed the calculus on how much $80M could go towards filling those 4-5 slots. The market surge probably changed my hopes from 4-5 key additions to maybe 3-4, before we even got to what the Sox were thinking. I have no idea what their reasoning for not offering Devers $300M/10 by now, or shortly. My guess is they think it is too much of an overpay and are locked into the value setting formula to deviate from it based solely on fanbase disgust. They've seen the fans get over losing stars before by quickly turning the team into a winner, and maybe they have convinced themselves they are doing that this winter by beefing up the pen, adding offense they think will replace Bogey and JD, and continuing their slow build up of the farm and 40 man roster. I keep thinking they are trying to time a splurge spending spree just right, but I have my doubts it happens, anytime soon.

History does often repeat itself, but every now and again, there are hiccups.

Especially for our own players, true. They won't suddenly go from thinking Devers was worth $250M/10, yesterday to $320M/11, today. They may not care about the market surging on high end player contracts. Maybe they adjust their value methods slightly upwards but not by enough. To me, it may come down to them just realizing they have to bite the bullet on this one and overpay by a lot. They did go against their own policy when they went extreme on the Price signing. I know they broke their own rules on that one. Maybe, they realize it is time to do it, again. This time, on their own player.

Many saw it coming, but didn't expect it to crash down so suddenly like it did.

Fans might not realize that building a number 1 system if often the best way to win a WS, and they don't have the patience to wait it out.

That seems like the best simplified answer out there. I agree. I think there is more to it, that maybe we will never find out, but some changes need to be made on the decision-making process and keeping up with the changing market and rule changes. We'll need a near repeat of 2013's everything goes right season to have a chance in 2023, an d unless we make at least 2 more significant additions, this winter, the odds will be slim.

Many fans were not aware Pedro's arm was literally held together by a thread, when we lost him. Many were pissed. They were pissed we lost DeLowe, even Bronson Arroyo. I know Beltre was a one year guy, but fans were pissed, then, too. I was happy when Jake left- others were irate. I'm not sugar coating the loss of Betts and Bogey and maybe Devers. I'm not saying we look like we will be winning anytime soon. I felt that way right before 2013, too. I'm just saying, winning would help us get over these losses- not that I predict we will be winning real soon.

Many moments, and maybe much more to come, if he can play 155 games at 2B.

Who is the quote from, and has it been confirmed? If it is confirmed, could it just be a negotiating tool, or a statement made before another counter offer was made from the Sox?

No, 26% is not good, but I truly don't think it's 1%. Why are we believing "galaxies apart?" These reports have turned out to be rubbish, so many times, yet we keep giving them cred. Certainly, we may be miles apart, and it wouldn't shock me, if we were. Maybe, I have too much faith in the power of fanbase angst and how management sometimes changes their plan based on severe fanbase anger or the threat of anger. These guys would have to be in a cocoon, isolated in a sound proof room in an underground bunker to not feel the massive disgust in Sox Nation. Not doing anything about it seems like a less likely option, to me. Maybe I'm naive. Maybe my rose colored glasses are clouding my vision. Maybe my optimism is getting the better of me, but I just can't believe this winter's significant moves are over or nearly over. The way things have gone, so far, I won't be shocked if all we do is add Seth Lugo and sign or trade for a cheap defensive SS and call it a winter, but I just can't see them being that blind.

Yes, we purged 80% of a nice rotation plus Andrew Miller and made the playoffs 1.5 years, later. Fans were not happy after those trades, to say the least. Lester was "homegrown" and beloved by fans. He loved Boston and how they stuck with him through his bout with cancer. It was not a happy ending, and fans/posters still bitch about how we handled his departure, but winning helped ease that pain. Winning sooner is much better than later. The 2021 season seemed to help with the loss of Betts, Price and Kimbrel, but it can turn sour, real quick as we see, now.

There is still ample time and options for adding a SS and solving this whole mess at middle IF. Maybe the options dwindle, if we are seeking only a 1 year contract, and that's what the hold up is, but I agree: don't risk blowing out Story's arm trying to use him as a one year "bridge" to Mayer. In all honesty, I'd rather we just suck at SS and play Arroyo there than risk Story's future. It's weird how we dumped Park & Downs. I have to think a SS addition is on the horizon, but maybe it's just wishful thinking.

It sure doesn't look like it, but it didn't in 2013, either, and fans were restless that winter-spring. I'm not predicting winning, anytime soon. My point was just that winning erases the anger and angst pretty quickly. I do think the foundation and farm are stronger than they were after 2019, but we have a ways to go, and it seems like we have been heavy on quantity over quality. I thought this was the winter to reverse that quantity vs quality dynamic or balance, but it doesn't look like now was the time. I'm not so sure if it ever will be. It seems they may never go large and long, again, and I'm talking much larger than Story's deal and 3-4 years longer than Yoshida's deal. They once drew a line on not signing pitchers over 30 and ended up breaking their own rule, not too long afterwards. Maybe something similar will happen, again.

Maybe, they allowed DD to just go ahead and make nearly any move he wanted, and merely had to check-in on deals like Price and the Sale extension (no time constraints on Sale). Maybe, after all the failed, recent big contracts, the upper brass instituted a more thorough check point that turned into more of a roadblock.

Hey, people are looking for a spot for Bobby Dee, or should I say Booby Dee, and he did play some 2B , last year!!!

Yes. He's probably our 7th or 8th RP'er in 2023. Maybe they think they can tweak something to help him improve. Other teams seem to do that all the time, and we do have the Schreiber example on our side.

Indeed, and it took a long time for the winning to erase that pain, in that case. We lost Pedro and won, afterwards. We had a purge of our 2007 WS ace, Beckett and AGon in 2012, and won the v ery next year. We purged nearly our whole rotation- a damn good one, too- in 2014, plus Andrew Miller and won a ring 4 years later. Fans were not happy, many times after losing stars. I'm not saying this time will be different, and if we don't start winning, soon, it will be different, but my point is, winning helps us forget those losses real quickly.

They may have a hand in it, that's why I added, "IMO."

Not all throwing errors lead to runners advancing, and most won't score, anyway, but 20 more errors was just pulled out of a hat. I could have said 15 and 30 less outs. Plus, some SSs make over 100 more plays than others. In 2022, Mateo made 598 plays as compared to some who made just 480 (Kiner-Falefa) and Pena (493.) I could have chosen better numbers to make my point.

It only matters, if you are losing. I get the fact that the way we are losing our stars has changed from past glory days, but people weren't happy when many star players departed the team, before. Was anyone upset that the 2028 team had just 3 players from the 2013 still on it? I believe only Pedey, JBJ and Bogey, who was a late season call-up in 2013, were carry-overs. Yes, we didn't lose Papi to another team, but many people were pissed when Jake went to the Yanks. They were pissed about how we lost Lester and Lackey and Miller,. I'm not trying to sugar coat what's going on, right now. I'm pissed, too, but winning will erase much of these bad feelings. The main problem, now, IMO, is that nobody sees us moving towards winning, but they didn't in 2013, either, after a pretty big roster purge the summer before.