moonslav59

That was my point, and why I said had we traded Renfroe for prospects. While we often talk about only the tax line and AAV, that $8M JBJ buyout paid, this winter might be one reason why JH is not ev en spending up to the tax line.

Certainly, not enough, and if that is really the only very bad deal Bloom made, maybe that is the point. What do people expect from $3M/1 free agents? Or even $10M/1'ers?

No GM gets us very much farther under the circumstances of the last 3 years: 1. Houck as the only prospect of note in 5 years. 2. A m assive budget cut year one, followed by a trickle of winter spending money. 3. Injuries and declining production from returning vets. Mistakes were certainly made by Bloom and the blame game can extend beyond him, but some context is needed, IMO. Signing high-priced players is a big risk. Signing tier 2 and 3 FAs is not something many GMs do very well.

Had Casas and Bello not been called up, last year, here is where BTV might have ranked our top 5 prospects: 7. Mayer 55.4 18. Casas 41.3 28. Bello 33.2 80. Rafaela 15.1 89. Bleis 13.6

I don't blame players, who most come from low or modest backgrounds for seeking the most they can. I do wonder why so many seem shocked that someone like JH just wants to keep making more and more money. It's the way of our world, but for some reason, if it denies us our enjoyment in sport, he's the evil, greedy bastard, while we look up to many rich guys. Henry spent enough to get us 4 rings, so it's hard for me to get pissed at him, It's other cities' time, now, I guess.

Phillies to sign Kimbrel.

I meant greed by the owners. JH values making more money over paying out what it takes.

Sounds about right. They may have insisted on Mayer and Dugo- maybe for Varsho and Ahmed.

My guess is the reason Andrus is not already in a Sox uniform is that he wants 3 years or 2 with a hefty buyout after 2 years and an option year. He should get 2-4 years from someone. I think we will need to bite the bullet and trade for Rojas from the Marlins or some other 1 year SS. It shouldn't be too costly, but if we get a real good defensive SS who might hit .700 without costing a top prospect, it may help by allowing Story to stay at 2B, and leave more budget space to sign Kluber and/or Nate and maybe even Fulmer.

I have to think some of these owners may be thinking they won't be the owner, when these deals all start going in the dumpster, while some may just keep spending their way out of the mess. Look at just what the Price and Sale contracts did to the Sox. If you add Pablito, HRam and CC before that, one can see why maybe JH has gotten a bit reluctant to agree on any more large and long deals. Even his large and medium and medium and medium deals have not paid back in production. Even the few that did had caveats. I don't see most of these contracts as trying to beat the lux tax calculation as much as the only way to outbid the other maniac owners.

Jays acquire Daulton Varsho for Gurriel & Moreno.

I totally agree on the non resetting thing, and I think that might have been from pressure to not upset the fans by trading JD at the deadline- part of the whole "need to stay competitive" thing that clashes with the long term goal of building up the farm and setting up the budget to maximize the timing aspect of the overall improvement of the team. To me, the JBJ trade was the one deal that was horrific from day one, and for several reasons- one being the budget. (We'd have reset had we just traded Renfroe for prospects, alone.) The Betts trade was forced upon him, and reports show no significantly better trades were available. The Beni trade can be viewed as a loss, but it wasn't a big difference maker. 3 years: 1 really bad trade and maybe a couple others that were minor mistakes. That's not all that bad. His FA signings, IMO, should be viewed within this context: 2020: $40M to spend (not even enough to replace Betts, 1/2 Price and Porcello's departing deals) and 12+ roster slots to fill. 2021: $40M to spend on 8-9 slots. 2022: $60M to spend on 7-8 slots. Realistically, what can be expected from FAs at those numbers? Granted, I expected better at "finding gems in the rough," but Bloom has "found" Whitlock, Schreiber, Pivetta, Refsnyder, Arroyo, Kelly, McGuire and maybe a few other surprises to come, but overall not what I hoped for. FA: Story is still TBD. Good ones: Wacha, Strahm, Hill, Renfroe, Kike. Not so good: Richards, Perez I, Perez II, Paxton and a bunch at around $3M like Marwin & Andriese. To me, when you look at the totality of Blooms moves, including the farm, he's been a net plus, but what's dragged us down were the budget constraints, bad inherited contracts, and the decline of so many vets, including some nearing or in their primes. Injuries really hurt our chances in 2022, but we were fortunate in 2021, injurywise. As I have said, before, this winter would be Bloom's flashpoint, and so far, it's been underwhelming, to say the least. Let's see how he finishes the winter and how the team does in 2023, but I'm not thrilled about our chances in 2023 as I am about the beyond.

I think we are going with Yoshida in LF (Turner at DH), Kike in CF and Verdugo in RF with refsnyder at the 4th OF'er and possible platoon in RF with Dugo. Duran, and later Rafaela provide the minor league depth, like it or not. Other RF options may have to be via trade. Free Agents: Adam Duvall The highest rated players still unsigned according to MLBTR list: 23. Eovaldi SP 33. Profar LF 39. Chafin RP 40. Segura 2B 41. Wacha SP 48. Kluber SP NR Andrus SS NR Fulmer RP NR Belt 1B NR Cueto SP NR Kimbrell RP NR Mancini DH/LF/RF/1B NR G Sanchez C .

A breakdown of Bloom's additions to the farm by soxprospects rankings: Recent grads: Bello (peaked at #3) Winckowski (9) Wong (11) Ort (41) Current Rankings: 1. Mayer ('21 draft) 3. Bleis ('21 IFA) 5. Yorke ('20 draft) 7. Romero ('22 draft) 9. Anthony ('22 draft) 15. Jordan ('20 draft) 17. E Valdez (Vaz trade) 18. Hickey ('21 draft) 19. Rodrigues-Cruz ('21 draft) 20. Kavadas ('21 draft) 21. Coffey ('22 draft) 22. Seabold (Workman/Hembree trade) 23. German (Ottavino trade) 24. Drohan ('20 draft) 25. Kelly (FA) 26. R Hernandez (Springs/Mazza trade) 27. Abreu (Vaz trade) 28. Brannon ('22 draft) 29. Paez (IFA) 30. Uberstine ('21 draft) 31. Hamilton (Renfroe trade) 32. Guerrero ('21 draft) 33. McDonough ('21 draft) 34. Koss (Aybar trade) 35. Encarnacion ('22 IFA) 36. Binelas (Renfroe trade) Current 40 Man Roster Bloom Additions/Extensions (not on grads or prospects list above): Barnes (extension) Verdugo (Betts trade) Pivetta (Workman/Hembree trade) Arroyo (Waivers) Wong ( Betts trade) Kike (FA & extension) Paxton (FA & option) Story (FA) Schreiber (waivers) Refsnyder (FA) McGuire (Diekman trade) Joely Rodriguez (FA) Martin (FA) Jansen (FA) Yoshida (FA) Mills (Wallace trade, who was acquired for Pillar) Turner (FA)

I could be wrong, but I think your bonus pool is larger for lower ranked teams. If not, at least it's not depleted by penalties of going over the tax line or signing QO FAs. (I don't know the rules, either.)

According to cots, and adding the $10M AAV for Turner, we look to be $38M short of the tax line. If the plan was to stay competitive while resetting the budget, leaving so much on the table really is a head-scratcher. Granted, there is still time to sign a few second tier FAs that could use up close to all of that money, like Kluber or Nate and Andrus or Segura, or we could trade for a large salary player. Assuming we add a SP'er and middle IF'er- I'll select Kluber and Andrus, our 26 man roster might look like this: 1. L Yoshida LF (DH) 2. R Story 2B (SS) 3. L Devers 3B (DH) 4. R Turner DH (1B/DH) 5. L Casas 1B 6. R Kike CF (2B) 7. L Verdugo RF (LF) 8. R Andrus SS 9. L McGuire Bench: Arroyo, Refsnyder, Wong & Dalbec/EValdez S1 Sale/ Paxton (one on the IL) S2 Kluber S3 Whitlock S4 Bello S5 Pivetta R1 Jansen R2 Martin R3 Houck R4 Schreiber R4 Barnes R5 J Rodriguez R6 Mills (1 option remaining) R7 Brasier R8 Taylor/Crawford/Kelly/German/Ort/DHern SP on farm (converted to pen?) Winckowski/Seabold/Mata/Walter/Murphy/Santos

Let's assume the Astros are the model we are trying to get to. Remember, they tanked for several years to jump start their farm build up. Can we really expect we can do that as quickly and thoroughly as they did? Yes, they traded for Yordan Alvarez, while we traded for Winckowski, but it took them time, and they did not deviate from the plan of not trading farm pieces for immediate help all along. Note, they did not trade Correa or Springer or Verlander or many other key pieces, who left via free agency. Nobody in Houston is bitching a bout them not trading those stars to get something instead of nothing. Winning shuts up almost all critics. To me, Boston fans don't have the patience to wait that long, and I'm not blaming them, but the reality is, we would not have accepted a total tear down and restart that may have included 2-3 total tank years. We tried to win while rebuilding, and that is not an easy thing to do, when yo are starting with a farm that produced just Houck in 5 years and an owner than aimed to cut the budget massively in 2020 and then add winter spending money sparingly or to levels that essentially just replaced departing salaries. Had we had a decent farm in 2019-2020, our chances of winning in 2021 and 2022 would have greatly increased. When you don't lose badly, you don't get top draft picks or IFA bonus pools. The poor finish in 2020 demonstrates just how much losing can boost the farm (Mayer draft pick and Bleis IFA addition).

Of course it is. Had Judge taken the bigger deal in SF, Yankee fans would be saying the same thing. Like it or not, money is the reason Betts and Bogey are gone and Devers might be right behind them. Greed is a powerful thing.

Conforto to Giants at $36M/2. Taylor Rogers to Giants at $33M/3. Not quite the Correa money.

While it is true, we don't get better bringing Devers back, we do get a lot worse, losing him. We can resign him, if JH wants to do so. I don't think his new contract would cripple the budget for years to come. THe Sox may appear "rudderless," but the budget has been trimmed of larger contracts through attrition and should be in great shape, once Sale's contract ends in 2024. If we reset, this year, like it looks like we can, even if we extend Devers starting now or in '24, the cycle of spending more in 2024 and 2025 looks set up, nicely. The build-up of the farm has not been rudderless. The FO has shown amazing discipline by not trading any prospect ranked higher than Aldo Ramirez, who topped out at #8. That's a major shift from the first 3 years of DD's era. Not only have we avoided trading top prospects, we've actively added over a dozen prospects under Bloom. Granted none, except Whitlock (not by trade) have shown signs of greatness, but some may end up taking over some sort of role on the big team (Wink, Wong, German, EValdez, Abreu, Ferguson, Rosier, de la Rosa) and Kelly (not by trade.) The build up of the bottom of the 40 man roster has been steady and IMO, is complete. It hasn't really translated into consistent winning, but having a strong farm, which we just recently reached, and strong roster depth is part of the foundation of consistent winning. Now, the hard part: adding quality at the top of the roster while playing the 3 year reset game and trying to pay our homegrown stars what this insane new market demands. I think their plan is pretty clear, but it is for the long term.

I don't either, but like Watson- someone will take Bauer.

After a five-month review of pitcher Trevor Bauer’s criminal case, the Los Angeles County District Attorney’s office announced Tuesday that it would not seek charges against the Dodgers pitcher. “After a thorough review of all the available evidence, including the civil restraining order proceedings, witness statements and the physical evidence, the People are unable to prove the relevant charges beyond a reasonable doubt,” reads the D.A. office’s comments in its declination. -Forbes https://www.forbes.com/sites/christianred/2022/02/08/trevor-bauers-criminal-case-concludes-with-no-charges-filed-against-him-mlb-investigation-still-open/?sh=364ab0672bee

With inflation $350M is less than what Betts got and is pretty close to what we offered Betts. I'm not that optimistic we extend Devers, but I still think we have a real shot at it.

One year SSs and BTV value: 9.6 R Ahmed 5.9 M Rojas 1.5 A Mondesi 0.8 Kiner-Falefa 0.0 JT Riddle -0.7 B Crawford -5.9 N Ahmed FA Andrus Iggy Gregorius Simmons Segura (2B)

There has to be several decent SSs with one year of team control on a team going nowhere.