moonslav59

Only the Sale contract remains as a minor excuse for Bloom. This is his team, now- budget restrictions and farm building priorities and all. It was his make or break winter, and there seems little more he will do, other than handle the Devers situation and maybe make one bold trade. I have serious doubts about the areas he chose to address with the limited but not meager winter spending budget given him, this off season. Frankly, I'm surprised he spent so much on a DH/L'er and DH/3B/1Bman. I do applaud his pen repair, and even though I'd prefer keeping Whitlock and Houck in this upgraded pen, making it a big strength, I'm okay with Whilock getting his chance to start and give us 150+ IP over 100-110. I expected a better winter with more emphasis on quality over quantity. I thought the whole quantity philosophy had run its course. The explosion of top end contracts, by itself, limited what I hoped we could have done with the expected $90M winter budget, and not spending it all, yet is a bit surprising, too. All this being said, when I look at our line-up., I see more odds-on chances for improvement than decline. Will 5-6 improved slots outweigh losing Bogey and to a lesser extent JD? If we think about losing the 2018-2019 or to a lesser extent, even the 2021 JD, I'm not sure Turner & Co. can do that, but I do see a good chance for improvement over the 2020 or 2022 JD. Improving ob Bogey's D might not be that hard to do, but it may take 3-4 improvements from 1B, DH, 2B, LF, CF or RF to just break even with Bogey's offense, but again, the 2018-2021 Bogey offense and not the 2017 or to a lesser extend the 2022 Bogey O. It's not a simple formula, and bringing back and aging JD and Bogey that for some reason has seen his XBH and RBI totals tumble since 2019 may not have given us what we remember these two hitters giving us over the last 4 years. I'm not dissing these two, but had we spent most of our budget bringing bac kBogey, JD, Nate and others, how could we expect major improvement from 2022, either? It's going to come down to how well Bloom's additions do in 2023, and not just this winter's newbies. This is Bloom's team. C McGuire and Wong 1B Casas (is DD'd prospect, but Bloom did not trade him) 2B hopefully Story or Arroyo SS hopefully Andrus or someone like M Rojas or Story LF Yohida CF Kike RF Verdugo/ Refsnyder DH Turner SP Whitlock, Kluber, Pivetta, Paxton (Wink & Seabold) Pen Jansen, Martin, Schreiber, Barnes (extension), Joely, Mills, Kelly, German, Ort All that is left over from the 2018-2019 teams are Sale, Barnes, Brasier and Taylor. Again, this is Bloom's team with a few ifs ands or buts, but the 2023 results will be squarely on Bloom's shoulders, fully deserving or not.

I think we were like 20th to end the 2022 season. What do these guys know? LOL!

The list is getting better and better. I seriously doubt it will be Mills, but the whole Chang trade and release was strange. BTW, Mills has an option, so he is staying around. I think everyone on this list is tradable, and Brasier may actually be on a short list, now.

We will need to add Turner and Kluber to the 40, real soon, so I'm thinking a deal or two might happen, any day. Maybe someone like Brasier and/or Taylor get traded for a non 40 man roster prospect. I love to see something like: Duran, Brasier and Dalbec for M Rojas (SS MIA) or R Laureano (RF OAK) BTV accepted: Duran & Seabold for Laureano and Murphy, Dalbec & Feltman for M Rojas

Saying we lost our best pitcher is like saying you lost your best RP'er in Chapman.

He missed April & May due to his lied about injury. He was the FT SS, when he returned. From June 9th, his return date to his trade date, all of his starts were at SS, except one at DH. He started 37 out of those Sox 45 games. Dude, he was our starting and FT SS when we swapped him out for OCab.

From Nomar to OCab was a big plus on D.

I did not think I implied Doug M helped us in any major way. IMO, OCab made a major difference, but maybe that was more about my just wanting my prediction to come true.

I remember loving the trade day one, and telling my friends and family the trade was going to "bring us a ring." They all said, "Orlando who?" It turns out SS defense does matter, and OCab did fine on offense, too. I sensed the negative vibes on Nomar, whether they were media creations, or not. The guy apparently lied about his spring injury and then pouted about the contract offer. That's how I saw it- justified or not. The team got fed up with him, knew they weren't bringing him back and traded him for another 2 month rental- and a defensive 1Bman. The rest is history.

Unlike the Betts-Price trade, that actually brought back more but did not lead to winning. It did save us a lot of money, so in that way both Dodger trades were similar. Note: Ben was allowed to spend the money saved on players for the 2013 team. Bloom was forced to not replace the Betts and Price savings and spend only enough to make up for losing Porcello and Pearce.

Last place finished really suck. I don't think any of them, except maybe 2020 were planned or expected by most fans, but that doesn't help with the pain. We did finish in last place in 3 of JH's first 13 seasons, too, but the stretch from 2003 to 2011 with nothing worse than a 3rd place finish was something we all hoped would last and last. We were also 90-72 (2011) and 89-73 (2010) in those two 3rd place finish seasons and 86-76 in the other (2006) What was the key to that 9 year stretch? Theo did inherit some key players like Manny, Papi, Damon, VTek, Nomar, Nixon, Pedro and D-Lowe, but we also had a solid farm and signed a bunch or free agents, while missing out on some of the biggest ones, like Tiexiera. Key trades for aces like Schilling and Beckett helped a lot. It was a mix of a lot of things, but many times it was having a bunch of good role players like Wake, Millar, Lowell, Bellhorn, Mueller, Foulke and others. They had a healthy mix of quality and quantity and a farm that provided an influx of help, when needed or offered up in trades for essential pieces to keeping the team winning, every year and securing 2 rings in those 9 years, while leaving a foundation for the 2013 team and a farm the supported the years after 2013.

I've said this, too, and winning in 2013 got people over the mega Dodger trade. Winning in 2018 got most fans over the Lester fiasco. Losing stars and sucking changes a lot.

I do think if the Sox leaked that BorA$$ wanted $225M/8 at the Story signing and $250M/10 right before he became a FA, that might have helped them look a little better not agreeing with this. If the actual numbers were lower or much lower, that might be why we're not seeing any leaks.

Ahhh, sounds right, and when half=Price opted out of 2020, the Dodgers and Sox both saved about $15M each. So, we paid $30M with Price and Betts (about +$25M on BTV) for Verdugo, Downs and Wong (about +$70M on BTV)

Have they ever said what crazy number BorA$$ was demanding for Bogey? I wonder why not, or maybe the number was not so crazy, and it would make them look worse than they already do to most fans.

Maybe I'm being overly optimistic, but I'm banking on them snapping out of this funk and realizing this firestorm may be so intense, they cannot come out of it. If they start seeing season ticket holders drop in the next couple months and NESN subscriptions are way down, maybe, just maybe...

The trade was: 50.7 Mookie -55.3 Price 78M Cash for 47.7 Verdugo (almost worth equal to Mookie due to yrs of control) 21.7 Downs 4.3 Wong These values compare to... 48 Verduo = Between 55 Mayer or 41 Casas 22 Downs = more than 19 Schreiber or Houck 4 Wong = between 5 Paulino or 3.8 Mata

It would have to involve Devers willingness to take less than his market projection OR valuing the security of having a major contract signed a year earlier, in case of injury or a major decline in 2023 and the benefit of having more money up front in a high inflation era. It would have to involve the Sox going above their "comfort zone" and value setting formula. Needing both does make the odds look long, but there has to be some major pressure on Sox management to repair their image. I'm not sure what affect this has on the top brass. It has never seemed to phase them, before, but this is about as bad as I've seen it.

And, Sale is -$13M, so Devers, alone brings back $37M and a Devers/Sale package brings back $24M. I'm not sure what 1 year of Betts was worth, when we traded him, and how much Price was under, at that time.

Devers has been a bit up and down on his defense- much like Bogey, but he seems to have settled into about an average defensive profile. What's the difference? 1. SS is the most important defensive position on the field, perhaps along with catching. 3B is maybe 4th to 6th most important behind SS, C, CF and maybe 2B or even RF in Fenway. 2. Devers is much younger and may improve on defense, but would also have way more extension years within rime than Bogey. 3. Offense: wRC+ Devers 132 age 22 (94 OPS+) 108 age 23 (107- short season) 133 age 24 (134) 141 age 25 (141) Bogey 95 age 24 (95 OPS+) 133 age 25 (135) 141 age 26 (139) 129 age 27 (128) 130 age 28 (129) 134 age 29 (131) It's a big risk, but I like Devers more than Bogey. What position will Bogey be playing in a year or two?

I believe he was helped more by the shift than other SSs. It might be a fluke, and maybe the sample size is too small to make a major difference.

We'll not only need Bello and Whitlock as studs, but a few others to rise and shine... Maybe one or two from Crawford, Winckowski and Seabold to settle into a 5th starter role or a capable long relief arm. Maybe one or two from Kelly, German, Ort, DHern and others to fill key pen roles, perhaps not top closer levels. Maybe one or two from Mata, Walter, Murphy, Santos or Drohan to fill a #3 or #4 slot in the rotation, with a #2 not out of the question. Maybe one or two farther away prospects to fill in a key role 2 or more years from now from Wikelman, Uberstine, Perales, Rodriguez-Cruz, Paez, Luis Guerrero, Ryan Fernandez and Taylor Broadway/Angel Bastardo/ Juan Encarnacion/Noah Dean/Hunter Dobbins/Jacob Webb...

WAR rewards durability, too, which is a good thing. The defensive metrics are wildly split on Bogey. B-R had him at a +0.5 dWAR before 2022, and his +1.3 moves him up to a career 1.8, but one could argue his numbers when on the shift moved him into plus territory, but certainly, B-R has him near average. Fangraphs had him with a negative UZR/150 before his _4.7 in 2022 moved him to +0.9 career- again, one wonders about the shift numbers, but UZR/150 has him near average- career. The DRS metric has never been kind to Bogey, until his +5 in 2023. He was minus, 5, 4, 9, 8, 11, 10, 3 and 5 in his previous seasons and is near the bottom of the pack at -50 career. All-in-all, I'd say he has been slightly below average to a clear below average, if you take away the shift plus values. As he ages and with the shift no longer allowed, my guess is his numbers will look pretty bad on fangraphs, going forward, assuming he stays at SS on his new team that has 17 SSs on their roster. Yes, his offense and durability bring him to a huge plus value, and WAR captures that very well. I'm highly biased on SS defense, but I still will miss Bogey, dearly.

That's how I saw it. If Sale was healthy for 4 of the 5 years, his market value was close to $145M/4 and we gave him $145M/5.

Georgia v TCU for all the marbles. Who-da-thunk it? I'm predicting Georgia squeeks it out. We have some games, today, but here's my final top 20, assuming Penn St and USC win. 1. Georgia 2. TCU 3. Michigan 4. Alabama 5. Ohio St 6. Tennessee 7. USC 8. Penn St 9. Florida St 10. Washington 11. Oregon 12. Notre Dame 13. Utah 14. Clemson 15. Oregon St./LSU