moonslav59

Looking at just the defense from 2022 to 2023, we have a few areas where significant changes have been made...like all positions, except 3B. Innings First, 3B appears to be the one position where little change will be made. 1186 Devers 140 Dalbec 72 Arroyo + 32 Downs We will likely see Turner get the bench minutes at 3B, a slight change and likely to the good. Catcher 643 Vaz 421 Plawecki 229 McGuire + 138 Wong It's hard to predict an improvement or decline on D, here. I'll go with even. 1B 635 Dalbec 362 Cordero 198 Casas 105 Hosmer+ 51 Arroyo + 47 Vaz +26 Shaw I have to think Casas is a major upgrade on D over Bobby Dee + Cordero 2B 814 Story 310 Arroyo 109 Sanchez 87 Kike +56 Downs + 23 Chang + 21 Arroyo I can't see any chance for improvement, here, unless we add a 2Bman. Although Story only played a little over half the innings at 2B, he was superb. Loss, here. SS 1250 Bogey 77 Arroyo+ 45 Kike + 32 Chang+10 Dalbec + 10 Arauz If Kike plays most of the innings, here, I'm saying it will be a plus over '22. LF 874 Dugo 419 Pham 82 Cordero+25 Refsnyder + 23 Almonte I'll call Yoshida e net loss. CF 669 Kike 416 Duran 171 JBJ 115 Refsnyder +34 Almonte + 19 Ja Davis With Duvall getting most of the innings, who knows- maybe a tiny net plus dues to about 700 innings from Duran, Ref, Almonte, Davis and Cordero in '22. (That's half) RF 526 JBJ 432 Dugo 163 Refsnyder 124 Cordero 108 Arroyo+ 46 Duran+ 24 Davis Since JBJ only played a little over a third of the innings in RF in '22, this position may end up being close to even. Call it a net but slight minus. No Cordero, Duran and Arroyo (280 innings) can help. So, I'm going with... Big Plus at 1B Slight Plus at 3B, SS & CF Even at C Slight Minus at LF, RF Big Minus at 2B Maybe call it an overall even? Our D at DH could tip the balance to a plus! (LOL)

Casas open to extension talks... https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/01/triston-casas-open-to-extension-talks-with-red-sox.html

You can keep playing armchair therapist all you want. I understand your opinions and others. When I misrepresent one of their opinions, I recognize it, correct my statement and apologize, when needed. When I tell you, "You don't understand," it is factual. I prove you didn't understand it by quoting your own words that you later deny even saying. When you say, "They don't understand," like in the last instance, you are totally off the mark. Case in point: it's not "bashing fans" by calling them "crybabies." I've admitted I am one, often, and that crybaby fans aren't always in the wrong. And, why do you care? You proudly admit to being one, too- just like me. My point was that crybaby fans force decisions to be made by management- for good or bad, and that even the determination of what is "good or bad" is subjective and means something different to me that to you or Sox management. Take the example this whole crybaby thing came up over: the lack of having a fire sale or mini firesale. I have never said not having one was a mistake and that Sox management was wrong and the crybaby fans were wrong. I just said I disagreed. That's not the same as saying they were wrong. That's a nuance you can't understand, EVER! They have business factors to consider. I don't. You have tickets to the August 15th game and want to see JD and Bogey in the line-up. You are not wrong to want that. I fully understand the positions. I just care more about the future than a 0.1% chance at glory in the here and now. That's how I viewed it. I know I'm in the minority. I know I cry about things. I'm not bashing crybabies. I'm just pointing out their influence and how it went against by desires. I'm not stating my positions to make me feel better or because I can't live without it. You are delusional, dude.

The Phillies did not look like a snake-bitten team in July 2022. I did not expect they'd go as far as they did, just as the Sox did in '21, but I was 99.99% sure the Sox were going to reach glory, last year. To me, sacrificing that 0.1% of winning to improve the longer term outlook was worth it, but I don't have to worry about season ticket holders, irate fans, NESN subscriptions and other business factors that go into choices like that one. I'm not claiming I was right and they were wrong, although fans seemed pretty pissed off, anyway. I'm not sure how much more they'd have been pissed had we just traded JD.

For someone who thinks disagreeing is just not understanding, you do a lot of actual misunderstanding of other people's positions.

I'd be happy, if we never bet on a FA ace. Our history shows we do better trading for aces.

IMO, it was clear as day last year's team was never going to be the Phillies, even if these guys came back from the IL and did well. The team was snake-bitten from the start. That's just my perception. No, I don't see it as "shoulda known." I know why they did what they had to do, and I know they have different things to care about than I do. IMO, we should have sacrificed the meager chances we had at doing something special in 2022 for a better outlook in 2023 and beyond. I'm not beating my chest and saying "I told you so," because there is no right and wrong answer. They made a choice I understand. I cared more about the future than our measly chances in '22. That's me. A few others here seemed to agree. We can say we'd be better off, now, had we done what we wanted, but that's not saying mistakes were made by not doing what we wanted. I wish they did, but they didn't. I move on.

Exactly. It's a business and trying to keep the most fans happy and excited about the team is a big part of their decisions. Again, I know why they did what they did. They do what they have to do, and what they think is best for the business of making money- which is largely linked to fan happiness and the perception of having a chance at glory in the given moment. There is a constant battle of the here and now vs extended future going on with every team to varying degrees. We can talk about "windows" and "rebuilds" all day, and some teams have to avoid even the perception of "rebuilding," even if it is obvious that is the mode they are most in.

That pretty much sums up your circular rants very well.

I know the odds of either pitching 100 IP, let alone 150 may not be great but 2 x 25% is better than 1 x 25%. We also could have Sale + Paxton = 0 IP but have great seasons from Bello, Whitlock, Houck and Kluber with steady Pivetta doing better than 90% of other teams' 5th starters. That's what I meant about not needing all or even 2/3rds of the 18 listed things to go right and still significantly improve on 2022.

You constantly equate disagreeing with not understanding. Like if we just understood the issue fully, we'd have to see your side is right.

I totally understand their thinking and never said they were wrong. I complain a bout things, too- usually different things from most others. Some complained just trading Vaz away was too much and signaled to the clubhouse we were giving up, when in reality, McGuire ended up doing better than Vaz and Pham did better than Cordero/Duran. Hosmer might have improved on Dalbec/Cordero but he hardly played. My point was that I felt the fear of upsetting too many fans, for all the reasons you gave and more, was a major factor in their decision not to at least trade JD. I get it. Really, I do. I also remember we were not far from the last WC slot, but I also remember there were several teams between us and the playoffs, and in my opinion, which is on the opposite side of the "playoffs are a crapshoot" spectrum than you and others- the 2022 Red Sox had close to zero chance at winning a ring by mid July. Okay, bring up the Phillies, who by the way won 5 in a row to end July and were 8 games over .500 on August 1st. They had 5 teams ahead of them: we had 8 and were tied with CWS at .500, so basically 9 teams. The team made the choice for various reasons combined. I wish they had made another choice, and it's not in hindsight. Several of us felt this way, and I am pretty certain, we were a small minority. I wish we had better comp picks and more bonus money to spend, this next draft. I wish we'd have better prospects by getting something back for players we lost for nothing. I fully understand there would have been many upset fans, especially those who paid big money for tickets to games after the deadline and not seeing Bogey, JD, Nate, Wacha, Hill and Strahm. As it turned out, the team ended up being marginally better on paper after the deadline, due to the trades, but fans were still pissed, so management didn't even get what they wanted to get, anyway.

Look for another Ottavino type deal. Maybe trade Hicks with a prospect for cash.

There is hope he can stay healthy. Better hope no stiff wind blows when Rodon is pitching.

Yes, to start the year, I have Barnes at #5. That is also assuming Houck is not starting.

Some of the updsides on the what ifs, this season are pretty damn high.

MLBTR reports... After three injury-riddled seasons, Chris Sale told reporters (including The Boston Globe’s Peter Abraham) that he is “very, very excited” about being healthy and heading for his first normal Spring Training since 2019. Between a Tommy John surgery, a fractured rib, and fractures to his finger and wrist, Sale has pitched only 48 1/3 Major League innings since the start of the 2020 season, which was also the first season of a five-year, $145MM contract extension Sale had signed with the Red Sox the year prior. Given the lack of return on this extension, Sale feels “I owe my teammates the starting pitcher they thought they were going to get. I owe the front office the starting pitcher they paid for. I owe the fans performances they’re paying to come and see.” Looking for a silver lining to his injury woes, Sale noted “that’s three years of [pitching] that’s not on my arm” as he enters his age-34 season. “That’s not going on the odometer. I’ve kept myself in really good physical shape. My arm’s feeling good. I don’t have any hesitation going forward with pitching.”

I guess they all think most of these 18 things will not go right for the Sox.

Even as the 3rd or 4th RP'er, they could manage his workload better.

Rodon would not be the guy I bet on. Not even close.

I don't have much faith in Barnes for 2023, but I certainly see him as a good possibility for filling a key role. We already have Jansen, Martin, Houck and Schreiber, so he may not be needed as a top 4 RP'er, but he could very well become our #2 or 3.

RP'ers often come into innings with 1-2 outs. That, alone skews their ERA numbers. Starters often leave the game with men on base and get charged runs or not based on how well the next guy does. All stats are part of the soup. ERA is just one, but it does have 3 letters. (BTW, WHIP has 4.)

Simon Hampton reports that Story feels he will play in 2023... https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/01/trevor-story-confident-hell-play-in-2023.html

I think, had they extended Bogey, Bogey would be the SS in 2023 and Story at 2B. After 2023, things may have changed.

If you figure 65 IP per season is the norm for closers and set-up me, 11 IP per month is the average. Barnes in 2022: 12.1 IP in AUG 2.92 ERA 10.1 IP in SEP 0.00 ERA All of his last 15 appearances were in the 8th inning or later: 14.1 IP 1.26 ERA, 3.18 FIP, .635 OPS Against and maybe an unlucky .302 BAbip. No blown saves 5 saves 4 Holds The only game he let up runs in, he entered with the Sox down 8-5. Game logs 1. entered in 9th down 6-5 (OER) 2. entered 8th up 9-8 (0ER & Hold) 3. entered down 8-5 (2 ER) 4. 9th up 6-5 (0 save) 5. 9th up 5-3 (0 Hold) 6. 8th down 3-2 (0 ER) 7. 9th up 1-0 (0 Save) 8. 9th down 7-6 (0ER) 9. 9th up 13-3 (0ER) LOW LEVERAGE 10. 8th up 5-3 (0 ER Hold) 11. 9th down 5-4 (0 ER) 12. 9th up 13-9 (0ER) 13. 9th up 3-1 (0 Save) 14. 9th up 4-3 (0 Save) 15. 9th up 6-3 (0 Save) Last 23 IP of 2022, he had a .590 OPS Against. Season: .681 Late & Close .664 High Leverage (64 PAs) ,663 Medium (31) .689 Low (81) I gotta throw in one more number: 8.49 ERA w Vaz 3.09 w Plawecki 2.25 w Wong 2.19 w McGuire