moonslav59

To me, the farm is the ultimate direction setter, going forward, but the 26 and 40 man roster has not progressed as much or as quickly as I had hoped, and certainly much worse than many has hoped. In all fairness, I did think we look competitive, last March- after the Story signing. Wacha, Hill and Strahm overshot my expectations, but still we got worse with out wins and losses. It's not easy projecting this team Just ask Jacko. The guy is like oh for his last 5.

Agreed. Our offense should be about as good as 2022- maybe better. Our defense should be as good, despite a drop in RF and maybe LF. Our pen should be better, despite losing Whitlock to the rotation. It's going to come down to the rotation. We have 6 SP'er with nearly all of them being question marks. Pivetta is the one that is not, but the unknown is whether we need him to be our solid #5 SP'er of our #3. If it's #3 or maybe even #4, we are in trouble. Whitlock and Bello look super promising, and we haven't had a young SP'er duo like this in a long time. Uncertainty about their 2023 production and IP levels abound, but at least I feel good about these two. The next 3, not so much. Sale is and has been a big question mark for many years, and the answer to the question has not been good for several years in a row. Paxton is Sale B. Kluber looks somewhat promising, but with his age, injury history and being a reinvented pitcher, there is always doubts. One promising thing about our rotation, to me, is the depth beyond 1-6. I know much of my hopes are purely conjecture, but I'd rather have hopes than what I've had the last 4 years in this area. (Remember, even in 2018, we needed to trade for Nate due to a lack of SP depth in the system.) Mata really excites me. Walter has hope, too. I think Murphy may be better suited for the pen, but he may shine as a fill-in SP'er, if needed. I've still not given up on Crawford, Wink and Seabold, but admittedly, my hopes have lowered from previous years. My hope, now, is one will find a key role in 2023, and do well at it. I don't think that hope is a long shot, but I worry about needing to cycle through 2 poor performances before the third one does okay. It might be too late by then. I'd like to see us add another solid SP'er, but I doubt that happens. Maybe adding a Fulmer-type RP'er would allow Houck a chance to start, if needed, but we need to stop jerking him and Whitlock around. At this point, I'm just hoping we find a defensive SS who is not an embarrassment at the plate and maybe a real RF'er, even if it means trading Dugo. There is budget room and trade possibilities for both, and doing both might take some stress of the rotation in 2023. Improved D at SS and RF would help the whole staff.

The term "misreading" is a bit loaded with context, and in the case of Bogey could cover a wide range of situations and happenings that we may not have all the facts on to know for sure what was misread and by how much. I'm pretty sure most GMs, fans and the media misread the explosion of contract prices for high end FAs. Counting Bloom in the large group makes total sense, but by itself, does not mean it was a "mistake" in the Bogey case, if they felt all along and still do, that Bogey was never worth paying what the FA market rates was at any point along the timeline or what they felt BorA$$ would accept. Maybe they didn't feel like he was worth $165M/6 at the time of the Story signings, and even if they did, do we know Bogey would have accepted it? We can plus in any numbers to make similar points along the timeline. Of course, one can easily say, "We should have locked him up way earlier for a much lower price than he got," and that looks like a great idea and a major mistake by Bloom, but only if two things happened/happen: 1. Bogey agreed to it. (This could go back to the DD extension agreed to, as well, and why didn't he pay more to erase the opt out clause?) 2. Bogey earns it, afterwards. If one looks at it like, "Bloom should have seen $280M/11 was coming and got Bogey to sign for $250M/10 a couple weeks earlier or $200M/7 last March, I'm not so sure it was a mistake not doing that. Only time will tell. It seems Ole Red's "misreading the room" includes the idea that Bloom convinced JH & Co that Bogey was not worth offering anything they felt he'd accept and/or that they could still get him once he reached free agency, because he misread the market and what anyone would offer him. Ultimately, to me, the biggest "mistake" was getting a lousy comp pick for Bogey. Whether Bloom begged to trade him and wasn't allowed to, or he recommended we extend him and wasn't allowed to, it's on him. I realize those are two big ifs and neither seem likely, so it does appear Bloom deserves some or much of the blame for the return we got on Bogey. Bogey's production from here on out will ultimately determine how bad, or perhaps good, it was letting him go. The return will always be a mistake that may or may not have involved "misreading the room" to any or to a varying extent.

Only the Sale contract remains as a minor excuse for Bloom. This is his team, now- budget restrictions and farm building priorities and all. It was his make or break winter, and there seems little more he will do, other than handle the Devers situation and maybe make one bold trade. I have serious doubts about the areas he chose to address with the limited but not meager winter spending budget given him, this off season. Frankly, I'm surprised he spent so much on a DH/L'er and DH/3B/1Bman. I do applaud his pen repair, and even though I'd prefer keeping Whitlock and Houck in this upgraded pen, making it a big strength, I'm okay with Whilock getting his chance to start and give us 150+ IP over 100-110. I expected a better winter with more emphasis on quality over quantity. I thought the whole quantity philosophy had run its course. The explosion of top end contracts, by itself, limited what I hoped we could have done with the expected $90M winter budget, and not spending it all, yet is a bit surprising, too. All this being said, when I look at our line-up., I see more odds-on chances for improvement than decline. Will 5-6 improved slots outweigh losing Bogey and to a lesser extent JD? If we think about losing the 2018-2019 or to a lesser extent, even the 2021 JD, I'm not sure Turner & Co. can do that, but I do see a good chance for improvement over the 2020 or 2022 JD. Improving ob Bogey's D might not be that hard to do, but it may take 3-4 improvements from 1B, DH, 2B, LF, CF or RF to just break even with Bogey's offense, but again, the 2018-2021 Bogey offense and not the 2017 or to a lesser extend the 2022 Bogey O. It's not a simple formula, and bringing back and aging JD and Bogey that for some reason has seen his XBH and RBI totals tumble since 2019 may not have given us what we remember these two hitters giving us over the last 4 years. I'm not dissing these two, but had we spent most of our budget bringing bac kBogey, JD, Nate and others, how could we expect major improvement from 2022, either? It's going to come down to how well Bloom's additions do in 2023, and not just this winter's newbies. This is Bloom's team. C McGuire and Wong 1B Casas (is DD'd prospect, but Bloom did not trade him) 2B hopefully Story or Arroyo SS hopefully Andrus or someone like M Rojas or Story LF Yohida CF Kike RF Verdugo/ Refsnyder DH Turner SP Whitlock, Kluber, Pivetta, Paxton (Wink & Seabold) Pen Jansen, Martin, Schreiber, Barnes (extension), Joely, Mills, Kelly, German, Ort All that is left over from the 2018-2019 teams are Sale, Barnes, Brasier and Taylor. Again, this is Bloom's team with a few ifs ands or buts, but the 2023 results will be squarely on Bloom's shoulders, fully deserving or not.

I think we were like 20th to end the 2022 season. What do these guys know? LOL!

The list is getting better and better. I seriously doubt it will be Mills, but the whole Chang trade and release was strange. BTW, Mills has an option, so he is staying around. I think everyone on this list is tradable, and Brasier may actually be on a short list, now.

We will need to add Turner and Kluber to the 40, real soon, so I'm thinking a deal or two might happen, any day. Maybe someone like Brasier and/or Taylor get traded for a non 40 man roster prospect. I love to see something like: Duran, Brasier and Dalbec for M Rojas (SS MIA) or R Laureano (RF OAK) BTV accepted: Duran & Seabold for Laureano and Murphy, Dalbec & Feltman for M Rojas

Saying we lost our best pitcher is like saying you lost your best RP'er in Chapman.

He missed April & May due to his lied about injury. He was the FT SS, when he returned. From June 9th, his return date to his trade date, all of his starts were at SS, except one at DH. He started 37 out of those Sox 45 games. Dude, he was our starting and FT SS when we swapped him out for OCab.

From Nomar to OCab was a big plus on D.

I did not think I implied Doug M helped us in any major way. IMO, OCab made a major difference, but maybe that was more about my just wanting my prediction to come true.

I remember loving the trade day one, and telling my friends and family the trade was going to "bring us a ring." They all said, "Orlando who?" It turns out SS defense does matter, and OCab did fine on offense, too. I sensed the negative vibes on Nomar, whether they were media creations, or not. The guy apparently lied about his spring injury and then pouted about the contract offer. That's how I saw it- justified or not. The team got fed up with him, knew they weren't bringing him back and traded him for another 2 month rental- and a defensive 1Bman. The rest is history.

Unlike the Betts-Price trade, that actually brought back more but did not lead to winning. It did save us a lot of money, so in that way both Dodger trades were similar. Note: Ben was allowed to spend the money saved on players for the 2013 team. Bloom was forced to not replace the Betts and Price savings and spend only enough to make up for losing Porcello and Pearce.

Last place finished really suck. I don't think any of them, except maybe 2020 were planned or expected by most fans, but that doesn't help with the pain. We did finish in last place in 3 of JH's first 13 seasons, too, but the stretch from 2003 to 2011 with nothing worse than a 3rd place finish was something we all hoped would last and last. We were also 90-72 (2011) and 89-73 (2010) in those two 3rd place finish seasons and 86-76 in the other (2006) What was the key to that 9 year stretch? Theo did inherit some key players like Manny, Papi, Damon, VTek, Nomar, Nixon, Pedro and D-Lowe, but we also had a solid farm and signed a bunch or free agents, while missing out on some of the biggest ones, like Tiexiera. Key trades for aces like Schilling and Beckett helped a lot. It was a mix of a lot of things, but many times it was having a bunch of good role players like Wake, Millar, Lowell, Bellhorn, Mueller, Foulke and others. They had a healthy mix of quality and quantity and a farm that provided an influx of help, when needed or offered up in trades for essential pieces to keeping the team winning, every year and securing 2 rings in those 9 years, while leaving a foundation for the 2013 team and a farm the supported the years after 2013.

I've said this, too, and winning in 2013 got people over the mega Dodger trade. Winning in 2018 got most fans over the Lester fiasco. Losing stars and sucking changes a lot.

I do think if the Sox leaked that BorA$$ wanted $225M/8 at the Story signing and $250M/10 right before he became a FA, that might have helped them look a little better not agreeing with this. If the actual numbers were lower or much lower, that might be why we're not seeing any leaks.

Ahhh, sounds right, and when half=Price opted out of 2020, the Dodgers and Sox both saved about $15M each. So, we paid $30M with Price and Betts (about +$25M on BTV) for Verdugo, Downs and Wong (about +$70M on BTV)

Have they ever said what crazy number BorA$$ was demanding for Bogey? I wonder why not, or maybe the number was not so crazy, and it would make them look worse than they already do to most fans.

Maybe I'm being overly optimistic, but I'm banking on them snapping out of this funk and realizing this firestorm may be so intense, they cannot come out of it. If they start seeing season ticket holders drop in the next couple months and NESN subscriptions are way down, maybe, just maybe...

The trade was: 50.7 Mookie -55.3 Price 78M Cash for 47.7 Verdugo (almost worth equal to Mookie due to yrs of control) 21.7 Downs 4.3 Wong These values compare to... 48 Verduo = Between 55 Mayer or 41 Casas 22 Downs = more than 19 Schreiber or Houck 4 Wong = between 5 Paulino or 3.8 Mata

It would have to involve Devers willingness to take less than his market projection OR valuing the security of having a major contract signed a year earlier, in case of injury or a major decline in 2023 and the benefit of having more money up front in a high inflation era. It would have to involve the Sox going above their "comfort zone" and value setting formula. Needing both does make the odds look long, but there has to be some major pressure on Sox management to repair their image. I'm not sure what affect this has on the top brass. It has never seemed to phase them, before, but this is about as bad as I've seen it.

And, Sale is -$13M, so Devers, alone brings back $37M and a Devers/Sale package brings back $24M. I'm not sure what 1 year of Betts was worth, when we traded him, and how much Price was under, at that time.

Devers has been a bit up and down on his defense- much like Bogey, but he seems to have settled into about an average defensive profile. What's the difference? 1. SS is the most important defensive position on the field, perhaps along with catching. 3B is maybe 4th to 6th most important behind SS, C, CF and maybe 2B or even RF in Fenway. 2. Devers is much younger and may improve on defense, but would also have way more extension years within rime than Bogey. 3. Offense: wRC+ Devers 132 age 22 (94 OPS+) 108 age 23 (107- short season) 133 age 24 (134) 141 age 25 (141) Bogey 95 age 24 (95 OPS+) 133 age 25 (135) 141 age 26 (139) 129 age 27 (128) 130 age 28 (129) 134 age 29 (131) It's a big risk, but I like Devers more than Bogey. What position will Bogey be playing in a year or two?

I believe he was helped more by the shift than other SSs. It might be a fluke, and maybe the sample size is too small to make a major difference.

We'll not only need Bello and Whitlock as studs, but a few others to rise and shine... Maybe one or two from Crawford, Winckowski and Seabold to settle into a 5th starter role or a capable long relief arm. Maybe one or two from Kelly, German, Ort, DHern and others to fill key pen roles, perhaps not top closer levels. Maybe one or two from Mata, Walter, Murphy, Santos or Drohan to fill a #3 or #4 slot in the rotation, with a #2 not out of the question. Maybe one or two farther away prospects to fill in a key role 2 or more years from now from Wikelman, Uberstine, Perales, Rodriguez-Cruz, Paez, Luis Guerrero, Ryan Fernandez and Taylor Broadway/Angel Bastardo/ Juan Encarnacion/Noah Dean/Hunter Dobbins/Jacob Webb...