moonslav59

In many ways it is nice to see we are having a problem finding room for so many good players to get a chance to play, and it does show Bloom doesn't get every signing or trade wrong, but we really needed pitching, IMO. (That is now looking like maybe he got that right, too, despite the horrific Kluber signing.) If you go straight by the numbers, which even a stat geek like me would never suggest, here are the splits of the players involved in the logjam, and this is before Story returns. Devers plays everyday at 3B. Reyes plays everyday at SS, until Story returns. Arroyo and Kike share 2B with maybe Valdez added to the mix, if we trade Kike or Arroyo. Catcher is not platooned, except for maybe a few game choices, here and there. 5 Positions to fill: DH, 1B, LF, CF, RF (RED= Must play everyday v this split) 2023/Career Vs RHP 1.088/.757 Duvall- small sample size- could sit a game here and there .900/.823 Verdugo- a lock v R .872/.746 Duran- should start vs every RHP, unless he slumps .861/.861 Yoshida- has to start v all RHPs .730/.752 Casas- room for some days off but not a platoon .728/.832 Turner- room to have a few days off v R .657/.670 Kike- out of the conversation in CF v R .520/.623 Ref- sorry, no starts v R Yoshida, Dugo and Duran should start everyday v R, so that leaves two slots open: to me, Turner should play everyday, but I can't sit Casas v R, either, so Duvall looks like the odd man out. Maybe all 3 share time off v R. Sitting one, every 3 games v R is not really fair to either one. Maybe a trade breaks the logjam, but who? Duran? Duvall? Casas? Dugo? Vs LHPs 1.000/775 Duvall- small sample but needs to start v every L .987/.771 Ref- lock to start v every L .978/.826 Turner- lock to start? .809/.809 Yoshida- really needs to play FT .720/.680 Casas- probably should sit v all LHPs and some RHPs .718/.685 Dugo- hard to sit him any day, but maybe he could "rest" more v L .659/.813 Kike- does not have to improve his O to squeeze Duran out, but Duvall wins. .618/.503 Duran- should be platooned The top 4 seem like locks: Duvall, Ref, Turner and Yoshida, so one slot is open. I'm pretty sure Cora is locked into keeping Dugo FT, and I can't see starting Casas over Dugo, but if Kike heats up, he might squeeze into some time in the OF v L. (See Kike at 2B, below) FYI: Catcher: Massive reverse splits, this year v R .841 Wong (116 PA) .605 McGuire (100) v L 1.122 McGuire (14 PA) .558 Wong (55 PA) 2B v R .739 Valdez .657 Kike .623 Arroyo v L .659 Kike .623 Arroyo (.986 Reyes/.830 Chang)

Or Duran.

Yes, I know that. My thought is something like Dalbec & Pivetta for a slightly better SP'er. Dalbec and one of Lugo/Bonaci/Hamilton/Koss for a prospect who is included with several others in another deal for Bieber or the like.

The bigger problem is who sits, Turner or Casas? I want both playing, everyday. Maybe give Casas a few extra days "of rest" vs lefties, so righties Turner, Ref and Duvall have a place to play, without sitting lefties Yoshida or Dugo. I could see Duran and Casas alternating days off when we face a lefty. v L CF Duvall or Duran LF Yoshida or Duvall DH Turner of Yoshida 1B Casas or Turner Turner or Duvall have to sit v RHPs, if Duran plays against every RH's SP'er (This is a nice problem to have but is not ideal- both should be playing FT.) v R CF Duran LF Yoshida or Duvall DH Turner or Yoshida 1B Casas

Depends what the second or third pieces are, but yes, Dalbec alone won't bring back much.

As long as Turner and Casas stay healthy, Dalbec gets no PAs on the big club for 2 years, so yes. The benefit we get is an open 40 man slot. Another team might start him on the big club, the day after they get him, or at least platoon him.

Why do you get the impression I dislike Wong? Was it because I defended McGuire over unbalanced tiny CERA sample sizes? I like both our catchers and projected they'd be as good or better than the Vaz/Plawecki of 2022. They are clearly better than the 2023 Vaz/Plawecki, so far. I thought Casas was supposed to bring us some decent D at 1B, something we sorely lacked, last year. Maybe he will improve over the second half. His offense is light years better than what we had at 1B, last year. I think his power will show up more, going forward.

No buy out, either.

Good points. The Turner deal could be $15M/1 or $21.7M/2.

...and in no way does this fact slight anything he did for us. The guy was a freakin' hero for us, for many year. Age decline happens, and it's great to see JD off to a fantastic start to 2023. Not expecting him to continue this is not hating on anyone. My original point about Turner passing JD, this year was supposed to be about pumping up a current Sox player and not hating on a past one.

Turner has declined with age, too, but seems to have leveled off his decline, recently. '17>'19: .945>.924>.881 '20>'22: .860>.832>.799 JD: .985 (.593) .829 (.484) note: most of the decline was in SLG) Another view: Turner: '17-'19: .916 (.519 SLG) in 1518 PAs '20-'23: .814 (.454 SLG) A .102 decline in OPS and .065 in SLG JD 1.007 (.619 SLG) in 1795 PAs .816 (.484 SLG) in 1706 PAs A .191 decline in OPS and .135 in SLG These two are not aging the same way. That's not fiction.

No, JD usually does not fall off a cliff, late seasons, but here are the numbers since 2018: Overall: .889 JD .846 Turner 1st Half>2nd Half JD 1.037>1.021 '18 .918>.965 '19 Whole Season: .680 (.389 SLG) .926>.787 '21 (SLG .556>.468) .849>.701 '22 (SLG .481>.400) No, 2 years in a row is not really a trend, but it does look concerning when you look at 2020 with it. And, 3 of the last 4 yrs, saw decline.) Career: .892>.864 is pretty close. Turner: Career: .809>.857 Both hitters are very good in 1st and 2nd halves, generally, but there is a significant difference between their career 1st and second half numbers: JD +.081 1st Half JD +.007 2nd half Now, here are the WOW numbers for Turner: .747>1.066 '18 .822>.971 '19 Whole season .800 (.460 SLG) 1.066 in WS .889>.755 '21 (.434 SLG) .734>.889 '22 (.503 SLG) 2021 was the outlier, but 3 out of 4 for Turner, too. I'm not hoping JD sucks.

I love JD. It's not bashing to say I think Turner will pass him by the end of the year. I hope JD does well. I hope it ends up Turner .925 and JD .924. JD usually is hot to start the year. Turner usually ends the year hot. It's no slight on either one.

TOR & HOU got blasted, last night. That puts NYY in the 3rd WC slot, alone. -0.5 HOU -1.0 TOR -1.5 BOS -3.0 SEA -5.5 CLE Just keep winning!

Just how much is a short end of a platoon DH worth, though? If he could just be decent on D at 1B and close to decent at 3B, he'd have more value. As part of a package, he might be the added piece that gets a deal done. I doubt we get anything of great promise 1 for 1.

No guarantees when expecting past trends to continue. With Justin, it's more than a one year trend. JD has not always dropped off, late in the season.

I doubt many fans are thinking sell, now, but if we do, perhaps as a seller and a buyer. People look at BTV to get a ruff value of players, but one thing they may not look at- what is the player's value, if we pay half or all their salaries. Here are some BTV numbers: Negative value players: -35 Story. If we paid half his deal ($53M), he'd have a +$18M. (Not going to happen.) -18 Sale (pay half is $18M) he'd be worth zero. May all and he's apparently worth +$18M. -6 Jansen Pay half- $12M) he'd be worth about zero. Pay all and he's worth $12M. -4 Kluber will be owed about $4M at the deadline. -2 Kike will be owed about $4M, too. May it and he's a plus 2. Turner is worth +1 but will be owed about $3M for '23 and has an option. Pay a bunch on his contract, and he'd have pretty high value. Verdugo is worth 23, but pay the $18M he may get after next year's arb, and he's got about $40M value. (Again, I am not for selling.)

BTV Values have changed a bit since my last visit- most notably Duran up to 30.4, Yoshida to 22.2 and Crawford to 20.3. (Bello is at 34.4.) Top Prospects: 65 Mayer 30 Bleis 25 Rafaela 19 Yorke 11 Anthony 8.7 Romero 6.5 Alcantara 5.1 Bonaci 5.0 Meidroth 5.0 Paulino 4.6 Walter 4.4 Bastardo 4.2 Jordan 4.0 Hickey 3.8 Drohan & Mata 3.6 Valdez

I'm with you, Max. I've had a few beefs with a few things Cora does, but out of the thousands of things he does, a handful of beefs is minor. I'm a huge fan of Cora. There was a Time I felt he was the best Sox manager I have ever seen, no slight on Tito intended, and I was not a Sox fan during the Dick Williams years. I'm not so sure, anymore, but he's right up there with Tito and Dick.

That hot streak was enough to support his first 2 year line of... .244 33 94 (.819 OPS) Pro-rate to 650 PAs: .244 40 110 Also, the hot streak of 2021 was more like 2/3 a season not 1/3. June 10-Oct 3: 916 OPS May 13th to Oct 3: .867 OPS He did okay for about a half season in '22, as well May 10 to Aug 10th: .737 OPS Prorated to 650: .235 30 85

I'd have to vote for Bobby V. Darrell Johnson bugged the s*** out of me with his petty favoritism crap. Joe Morgan just threw stuff at the wall to see if it would stick. I think he had his kid make out the line-up one day. Kerrigan barely was here long enough to judge much.

There is no reason we'd demote Casas. His splits are pretty even, so far this year, but he's been know to struggle vs LHPs, so there might be times he sits vs a lefty, but I doubt we look to straight platoon him with Turner (who DHs vs RHPs.) The Pedey example is famous, but there may be more examples like Dalbec, who was given a long look and came through, at the end of 2021, but then... poof! (BTW, I've not given up on Dalbec, just yet, either, but it looks like he may get a chance with another team, not us.

I think I was hoping Bloom would find 7 or 8 Refsnyders and Schreibers over 3.5 years.

With Duran and Ref heating up as a platoon, maybe we'll see Kike at 2B more than Arroyo.

One could say, "He's Come Undone," but that can have negative connotations.