Try to place yourself out of the realm of placing blame or assigning fault. Look at the state of the Red Sox team- top to bottom and all aspects, including the farm and budget after 2019.
I'll ask you make 2 assumptions:
1. The budget numbers were more or less set in stone.
2. The mandate to build up the farm, included the idea that no top prospects would be traded to improve the 26 man roster.
Even if you disagree with these assumptions, I ask you still try to follow along and to try and envision what a realistic expectation would be for the team's win-loss results and overall feeling of direction and chances for success. Also, what would be a realistic time frame for significant improvement to become visible and success to be expected and not a surprise, like maybe 2021 was (MAYBE.)
First, the roster and budget. The opening day 2019 roster is listed at $236M and fell to $228M by season's end. The Tax line was $243M.6. I'll go by the tax line salary amounts. Here is what was carried over after DD left (in $ millions):
31 Price x 3 years
22 JD x 3 yrs
17 Nate x 3
13.8 Pedey x 2
25.6 Sale x 5 (extension kicked in in 2020)
20 Bogaerts x 3 (opt out occured)
8.6 JBJ (with 1 more arb left)
6.5 Moreland (was re-signed by Bloom)
4.5 Vaz x 2 with option for 2022
4.3 ERod (with 2 more arbs)
2.5 Leon (1 arb left)
1.6 Barnes (2 arbs left- was extended by Bloom, later)
1.3 Hembree (2 arbs)
1.2 Workman (1 arb)
Gorkys Hernandez, Marco Hernandez, Juan Centero (arbs remaining)
entering 1st arb: Beni, Ryan Weber, Marco Hernandez & Josh A Smith
pre-arb: Devers, J Taylor, Brasier, B Johnson, H Velazquez, S Travis, C Brewer, M Chavis, DHern, B Poyner, MShawaryn, Walden and a few others.
Lost and essentially not replaced:
31.0 Price
22.6 Porcello
20.0 Betts (would have been $29M arb in 2020)
8.0 Cashner
6.3 Pearce
From 2019 to 2020, the budget was slashed $60M.
$20M no Betts
$16M half-Price
$20M Porcello
$6M Pearce
The pre-2020 Winter spending budget, not counting arb raises to JBJ, ERod, Beni, Barnes...: under $20M total, not counting what was slashed
6.5 Perez
4.3 Pillar (traded at deadline)
3.0 Moreland (re-signed/ traded at deadline)
2.9 Pereza (yuck!)
1.5 Lucroy
850K Osich (traded at deadline)
Min wage: Covey, McHugh, Springs, Brice...
Betts & half-Price are traded for what seems to be about the best any team offered with some debate about this.
Then, Sale, Pedey and ERod miss the whole 2020 season. Only the diehard Bloom-bashers think the 2020 season is his fault.
2021 Winter spending budget: about $40M total, counting the Ottavino trade, but not counting "saving" $3M on the Beni trade and arb raises.
10.0 Richards
8.9 Ottavino trade
7.0 Kike x 2
5.0 Perez II
3.1 Renfroe
3.0 Marwin
2.1 Andriese
1.5 Sawamura x 2
Again, Sale misses just about the entire season. We miss going to the WS by 2 games.
2022 Winter spending budget, not counting arb raises or the $5M raise for the Barnes extension and Vaz option) and the JBJ for Renfroe budget hit: about $40M
23.3 Story
7.0 Wacha
6.0 Paxton
5.0 Hill
4.0 Diekman x 2 (traded at deadline)
3.0 Strahm
2.3 Robles
No Sale and Paxton all year. We lose Kike and Story for parts of the year, and 4 out of the 5 remaining SP'ers go on the IL at some point, often 2-3 at the same time. Most of the returning vets see declines in production- some by a lot.
The Farm Infusions (or lack of it):
Since the call-up of Devers in the summer of 2017, so this started long before DD left, the most notable prospect additions until Casas and Bello in late 2022 were:
Houck
Dalbec
Duran
Arauz
Chavis
Downs
DHern
Crawford
What sort of impact on expectations should just these farm names have?
No doubt, many of the minor and 2ns tier additions Bloom made did not work out, but what should have been expected, when most players signed were for $1-7M and 1 year? That's not to say, they weren't mistakes, or at least some of them, but some worked out well, too:
Pivetta
Renfroe 2021
Kike 2021 (not 2022)
Whitlock
Schreiber
Refsnyder
Wacha
Hill
Strahm
How much has the farm been built up, even if just on paper? Yes, it's speculation, and some of DD's additions are proving to be better than expected, or assumed to be looking good, going forwards, but realistically, what should or could have been expected after 2019?
After 2020?
After 2021?
I'm thinking pretty close to what we got. High in '21- low in '22 with the farm looking better and this winter's moves looking pretty sketchy.