moonslav59

18. Nathan Hickey Hit: Potential fringe-average Power: Potential average Run: Well below average Field: Potential below-average at C (May end up at 1B or LF) Notes: 2021 Newcomer All-SEC Team and 2021 SEC All-Tournament Team. Received a somewhat surprising over-slot bonus upon signing. Missed nearly all of the final month of the 2021 season due to a family issue. Participated in the Fall Performance Program in 2021. Participated in 2022 Winter Warm-Up. Got beat up a bit behind the plate in 2022, taking a couple of IL stints, including one for a concussion, and missing a week-or-so of games in a couple of other instances. Was set to participate in the 2022 Fall Performance Program that was cancelled due to Hurricane Ian. Summary: Potential up-and-down reserve bat. Ceiling of a second-division regular. Likely has to stick at catcher to reach his ceiling, but has enough bat to potentially make the majors even if his defense does not come that much farther along. Advanced profile at the plate; likely to put up strong performance numbers in the low minors.

19. Elmer Rodriguez-Cruz Mechanics: Throws from a three-quarters arm slot. High leg left. Coils before coming forward. Arm swing behind; hides the ball. Uses his height to get good extension. Has arm speed. Some effort in delivery. Fastball: 90-93. Tops at 95. Potential above-average. Curve: 75-78 w long 11-5 break. Potential plus. Changeup: 80-83 w some drop. Potential fringe. Slider: Work in progress. Potential below-average. Notes: Young for his class, drafted as a 17-year-old. Committed to Oregon. Participated in the Fall Performance Program in 2021. Earned a promotion to Salem following the end of the FCL season. Summary: Early ingredients for a potential back-end starter, but there is a wide gap between what he is and what he could be. Already shows a four-pitch mix, with his fastball and curveball showing the most potential. Needs to improve his changeup and slider and physically mature to take the next step in his development.

SP's ... 20. Niko Kavadas Hit: Potential fringe-average Power: Potential plus Run: Poor 20 runner Field: Below average 1st first base only Arm: Below-average Notes: Consensus 2021 First Team All-American. 2021 First Team All-ACC and Dick Howser Award Semifinalist. Raw power and exit velocities were among the best in the 2021 draft class. Fell to 11th round of 2021 draft after turning down below-slot offers from teams on day two. Signed with Red Sox for $125,000 above slot despite being a college senior. Participated in the 2021 Fall Performance Program. Promoted twice during the 2022 season after putting up outstanding offensive numbers at both A-ball affiliates. Summary: Potential up-and-down bench bat. Ceiling of a platoon designated hitter. Value is solely tied up in his bat. Shows tremendous ability to impact the baseball along with an advanced feel for the strike zone and finding his pitch, but also has swing-and-miss in his game. Bat path allows him to drive the ball with loft, but it remains unclear how it will play against more advanced pitching. Profile suggested a player likely to post strong performance numbers in the low minors, which came to fruition, but true test will come in Double-A and above. Not a strong defender, unclear how glove will play at first base. Will have to hit to overcome defense and speed deficiencies.

I'm not trying change your mind or opinion. I'm just wondered what you based your opinion on. Thanks for answering. To me, the game logs clearly show he has been one of our most consistent pitchers since he was called up in 2020. He's had very few bad stretches, and when he does, they last 2-3 games max, and even then, rarely involve more than 3-4 ERs allowed. I'm not sure where your "gut" is getting all that it gets. Maybe you are eating the wrong foods, when he pitches.

I don't mean to scare our metrically opposed posters, but look-see.... ST run diff +26 BOS (5 gms) +19 SDP (7) +16 TBR (6) +13 HOU (6), KCR 97), TEX (8) +12 LAA (6) +11 STL (6), COL (6) +9 NYY (7)

I thought my statement was pretty clear. I remember more about discussions but do remember him running into outs. I remember him being thrown out, often, usually trying for 3B with less than 2 outs. I'm not saying he was a net negative baserunner. I never said that. I said he had bad instincts, early in his career. For someone who stole a ton of bases (129 in his first 331 games or 0.048 per game), I'd expect his BsR to be higher than 15.8. One has to think it was lower due to running into outs and getting picked off, too many times. It was 19.9 in his next 384 games (0.052/gm). (2010-2013.) I thought the differential would have been higher, here. Again, the guy could steal bases and way better than Duran. That wasn't my point. My point was not to say Ellsbury was ever a net negative on the bases- only that he had poor instincts, early on in his career. 2009 (127 PA) 9 SB 0 CS 3 OOB 2009 (607 PAs) 50 SB 11 CS 2 picked off 5 OOB 39% XBT% (League average 39%) Extra Base Taken % 2010 (693 PAs) 70 SB 12 CS 6 picked off 7 OOB 40% XBT (league avg: 39%) 2011 (732 PAs)- Missed much or 2011 and 39 SB 15 CS 4 Picked Off 10 OOB - OUCH! 2012- improvement begins (323 PAs) 14 SB 3 CS 1 PO 1 OOB 52% XBT% (42% Lesague) 2013 (636 PAs) 52 SB 4 CS (WOW! 3 PO 8 OOB (too high) 42% XBT% (league 39% 55% XBT% (league 41%)

So, no examples or reasons, just your gut? Also, I gave no metrics just simple game stats.

I remember discussing his bad instinct many times more than specific instances or examples.

How is he inconsistent? All pitchers have some ups and downs, but I don't see Houck as being more up and down than anyone else. In 2021, after a bad game 3 of his season, his ERA was 4.35 (FIP 2.40), and then his ERA stayed between 2.45 and 3.80 the whole season. In August, he had a 4 game stretch where he did poorly in 3, but still never let 4, 3 and 3 runs in those games.) He had 2 straight poor starts in September (6 ER in 8 IP,) but that's it. Last year's jerking around from SP to RP probably didn't help, but again, after a bad first start (3 ER in 3.1 IP), his ERA stayed between and a brief spike to an ERA of 4.05 in mid May due to 2 bad games, including 7 ER in one relief appearance, hiis ERA stayed between 2.99 and 3.59. After May 8th, he never let up more than 1 ER in any of his 25 games. You said you like Hits per 9. His 6.9 H/9 is pretty damn good. (Pedro's career mark is 7.1. It was 6.4 from 1997-2003, perhaps the greatest 7 year stretch in modern baseball.)

It's been an area of high growth in importance since maybe Andrew Miller.

It wasn't meant to be some big happy projection, but plus middle relief guys are needed in a good pen. I think Houck should be the go to middle guy, but having a good 2nd one is always a nice thing to have. That takes up 2 of the 13 pitching slots and makes selecting the other 11 a lot more likely to produce higher quality SP'ers and short RP'ers.

I'd add Bello and call it a quartet. I may be a homer, here, but I still think one from Crawford or Wink will develop into a very useful mid-relief pitcher who can pitch in some higher leverage situations from time to time.

I've been on that wagon a long time, and do believe we have begun to turn the corner on that long awaited area of need. There is still some proving to do, so I'm not raising the victory flag, just yet, but our younger pitchers (26 and under) look better than they have in about a decade- maybe more. The other good thing is that this has not seemed to happen at the expense of weakening the everyday player aspect of our farm.

We will always be adding pieces via free agency and maybe via trade, again, so we aren't limited to just our homies working out where they fit best.

Always love your posts, Nick. I'm thinking, as long as Bello, Whitlock and Houck come through, maybe we just need 1-2 of these 3 to work out and maybe another 1-2 from all the rest combined. Call it 3. Mata Walter Murphy Crawford Winckowski Kelly Fernandez (Mills, Ort, Santos, Shugart, Broadway...) 13 Man staff, and we have 13 vets and post grads, not counting Crawford, Wink and Ort, and others on the above list, who all have options: 6 SP: Sale, Kluber, Whitlock, Bello, Pivetta, Paxton 7 RP: Jansen, Martins, Houck, Schreiber, Rodriguez, Brasier, Bleier I'm liking our staff more and more, as I think about it.

He's pretty good at that. What kind of living is a FT AAA'er?

Eventually, they will shorten the landing strip

In no way am I saying Duran should be compared to Ellsbury as a base stealer- just the poor instincts and only earlier in Jacoby’s career. BTW, Jacoby had bad instincts on D early on, too. Not nearly like Duran, though.

Are you honestly denying Jacoby’s bad base running instincts early in his career? The guy ran into more outs than I can remember. I’m not talking just CS.

He had bad instincts as a runner. He was picked off, often and ran into many stupid outs, hence the "kinda like" comment. First 5 seasons: 39 CS and countless thrown out trying for an extra base.

Kinda like Jacoby early on.

Houck might be able to fill Whitlock's long relief role- no second timers. Crawford and Winkc showed a few signs of sticking around. My hope is one will improve, this year, and fill the long releif/spot starter role, well. Agree on Kelly and Ort. Bello may rise to be a good #2, but solid mid rotation at min wage is a big help, going forward. I think Mata is going to do well, in whatever role he is handed or settles into. Walter is a question mark, for sure, but he shows more promise than Murphy, Wink, Crawford and many others. We have a nice 7 or 8 pitchers from my first two lines. Not all will work out, but if we come up with 5-6, that's more than we've seen in a long time. Best homegrown pitchers from previous seasons (must be top 15 in IP and have 25 IP min) All who qualify are listed: (I may have missed a name or two) 2004: Lowe, DiNardo 2005: Papelbon 2006: Papelbon, Delcarmen, DiNardo, Hansen 2007: (Dice-K & Okajima) Papelbon, Delcarmen, Gabbard 2008: (Dice-K), Masterson, Buchholz, Delcarmen, Papelbon, (Okajima), Hansen 2009: Buchholz, Masterson, Papelbon, (Okajima), Delcarmen, (Dice-K), Bard 2010: Buchholz, (Dice-K), Bard, Papelbon, (Okajim), Delcarmen, Doubront 2011: Lester, Buchholz, Bard, Papelbon, (Dice-K) 2012: Lester, Buch, Doubront (1-2-3 in IP!), Bard (traded for A Miller) 2013: Lester, Doubront, Buchholz, Workman (Alex Wilson #16 in IP and 28 IP) 2014: Buch, Lester, Workman, Doubront (Ranaudo #16 w 39 IP) 2015: (ERod traded for), Buch, Owens, Masterson (traded back to us), Barnes 2016: Buch, Barnes 2017: Barnes (#7 in IP), Workman (13) 2018: Johsnon (5), Velazquez (6), Barnes (10), Workman (14) 2019: Walden (5), Workman (6), Barnes (8), Taylor (13), Johnson (15) 2020: Valdez (4), Barnes (9), Houck (12) (IP requirement waived) 2021: (Whitlock 5- not homegrown), Houck (6), Barnes (9), Taylor (11), DHern (13), Valdez (14) 2022: Crawford (6), Wink (7), Houck (10), Bello (11), Barnes (15) 2023 Steamers projected IP 6 Bello 117 7 Houck 80 14 Crawford 52 18 Kelly 26 20 Walter 21 21 Wink 20 22 Mata 18 23 Murphy 14

Agreed, but it just feels better seeing good starts vs bad starts.

So far, our offense doesn't seem to be a concern.

Make that a "good" reliever. If we can get Houck and Bello to become two quality starters, that's a big plus over the last decade plus. If you count Whitlock, since he was chosen as a prospect, it's looking real good. To me, it looks like we're starting to see quality and quantity. Houck, Whitlock, Crawford, Winckowski Bello, Mata, Walter, Kelly, Murphy, Ort, R Fernandez Perales, Wikelman, E R-C, Drohan, Paez, Guerrero, Uberstine