moonslav59

They take his total estimated value and subtract by the money he's owed or projected to make, if an arb player. These are some numbers: Value- pay= net value 94.2 Rafaela -58= 36.2 82.5 Duran-36.6= 45.9 78.3 Mayer-24.5=53.8 75.5 Bello-50.5= 25.0 56.4 Abreu-28.9=27.4

I think once we sign Bregman with massive defferals, we'll trade Duran and get back under line 2. Then, we'll make a mistake and go over by $1.5M, anyway.

Masa in AAA?

I hate when the car salesperson asks, "What can you afford to pay?"

Indeed, even at 32 years old. To me, that was so long ago, it's not worth talking about. Breggie has had a 6 year "red flag" and has not been Mr. Consistency in the last 2 years. Surprise: 2 years ago he turned 30. Do we really want our one large and long deal to go to this? fWAR trends... 5.4>4.4>4.2>3.5 (age 31) Bregman 4.9>4.8>3.9>0.3>3.8 (age 27) Bichette This was Story: 4.7>6.0>2.0>2.2 (age 29) before we signed him. We extended Devers after this: 6.5>0.8>4.2>5.0 (age 25) Maybe we should. I'm not sure what's the right thing to do. Knowing our luck, we'll make the wrong choice, no matter what we do.

$174M/6 likely gets it done. Counting inflation that's pretty close to the Story deal of $140M/6 back in '22. Story had the whole "COL home field advantage" tag laid on him, but he was 29 and also a GG caliber infielder, like Breggie. I'd be okay with that, but I still feel like he would not have been they guy I'd break the trend on. I totally get the point on not having to trade anyone away to get him, like we'd have to do to get KMarte. That part sucks, but KMarte's AAV is closer to $15M, while Breggies might double that. We can turn blue arguing how JH can and should spend more, but IMO, he'll never even repeat the DD spending era again. If he spends big, it will be short spurts, followed by fall-backs. Adding Bregman's contract will restrict further spending.

I've said numerous times that bringing Bregman back is a sideways move. Alone, it does not improve us from 2025. Not having him makes us way worse. He's not "the guy" in my opinion, that we go large and long on. Yes, you can argue $180M is not all that "large" and is not bringing us a "perfect" player. I feel the same about Bichette- sideways from Bregman 2025. I like a lot of what Brez has done in 2 short years (2.5 if you go by off seasons.) We improved at 1B and the rotation, but the loss of Bregman, Devers, Ref and Lowe left a big hole in the offense that Contreras cannot come close to filling by himself. Sure, hope the kids rise and shine, but that should be counted as gravy not as "the whole plan." Bringing Bregman back, by itself, is enough for me to think we improved by enough to get us to a top 6-7 contender. Without him, we are maybe at 9-11. I had hopes we could get to top 4-6, but maybe the "gravy" can get us there- or amazingly few injuries. Maybe we add two players- like Bregman and a SP, or Suarez and an even better SP. Then, maybe we can be top 4-5. Maybe. I see it like this: signing someone to a 6 year deal is not going to open up the floodgates to multiple large and long deal over the next 1-3 years. It might be the last one for another 10 years! Is Bregman really the guy to sign for 6 years and be the only one like that for 4-5 or more years? Story was 6, and I guess $140M might be like $170-180, now, but that was 2022. Yoshida was 5. I look at the Nate deal as more of an extension than a FA signing, and he was just 4 years. The last large and long FA deal could be viewed as the Price deal way back in 2016. That was... yup...10 years ago. I loved the Price signing. The guy was steady, durable, predictable and one of the best pitchers in MLB. He wasn't real old, either. I think he was 30. Bregman will be 32 and is far from the "best." I'm not saying I don't want him, and surely we will be much worse without him or the like, but he's just not "the guy," to me.

Knowing the Sox, the same offer they gave him, last year. Maybe $140/4

I think Duran is not worth 46, and I think they dock Ceddanne for his offense. He also gets paid a lot more than Duran, back-end, and they count that. I might give Duran & Witherspoon or Campbell. I'd give Rafaela plus Tolle or Early. I'd give Abreu, Arias and Witherspoon. BTV might not accept any of those or say MAJOR OVERPAY by the Sox.

I don't think you can ever accept that JH is not going to spend as much as you think he should. I could see AZ demanding Mayer and Tolle or Early and maybe even Valero, Soto or Phillips types. Am I way off? I'm not saying we'd give that, but I'd involve a third team and give up Duran plus more. I don't think BTV is way off on the $70M value. His AAV might be near $15M, but AZ will pay him way more than that. Some Sox BTVs: 54 Mayer 46 Duran 36 Rafaela 31 Tolle 27 Abreu 26 Early 25 Bello 22 Arias 18 Witherspoon 15 Campbell

Well, the age thing can't be ignored. I'd also argue that a 6 year sample size of not being close to your career highs is more than a red flag. It's not like a 121-123 OPS+ and near GG defense is bad, but no way is that $600M. You are looking at 2018-2019, "Bruh!"

Tier one is 1-2 guys in all of baseball history? LOL! Look, I get your point. Soto, Ohtani, Yamo were in a league by themselves. Sme extensions are up there, too. 16 FAs signed for $300M or more. I could agree that is the cut off, but I do think being top 50 is "close to tier 1." I guess it's all subjective, and certainly $180M spent in 2000 or 2010 is not the same as 2026.

He saw a hug drop from 2018-2019 to 2000-2025. Sure, he was pretty level all those years, but not clse to that previous level. He was horrible from opening day '24 until July 4th 2024. He was not great after coming back from the injury in 2025. Cracks are showing. One could argue he's had two bad half seasons and two great ones i his last 4.

True, and I want him back, but he has not had a great year since 2019. The guy carried a 157 OPS+ from 2028-2019. That is greatness. The closest he came to that since was in 2022 at 134, which is very good and maybe even great, when you count the defense plus-plus. He's had a 123 OPS+ from 2020-2025. That's very nice. It's been 121 in the last 3 years, so the trend is not bad, but he turns 32 by the start of the season and dealt with an injury at age 31 and 27. His great start to 2025 should be looked at the same way as his horrible start to 2024, when he was under .600 near the end of May, had a super hot 10 game streak then hit .712 for the next 110 PAs. He was at .701 on the 4th of July, and people herein HOU were wondering if his time was up. His second half of 2024 to first half of 2025 was a long sample size that showed he's not done, but the worry is still there. I don't see many other options out there, and I want us to be a top 3-4 contender in 2026, and not a top 8-10 one. We need a big add or two good ones. I want Breggie back. I'm just saying why is he the guy we finally break the mold for?

Chances are the whole thing resets after the new CBA. It will likely just matter on the tax for 2026 and maybe the drop in draft picks, if JH goes nutty on us.

Both lines matter to JH, although I agree they should not. JH seems to despise paying more than $1-2M in taxes. This is year 2. Level two might be too much for him to handle.

So how does taking Donovan differ?

I agree, but your max offer of $180M is pretty close to tier 1. I know deals given to Soto and Ohtani blow that away, but $180M is a top 50 FA contract in MLB history.

Casas and Romy signed for $1.6M each.

I'm not sure how much the "great clubhouse" value is worth. I'd like to have Bregman back, but he's not a great player and has not had a great season for a long time. I don't see him or Bichette as "the one" we should break the mold for. We need a big bat, and both may not or barely meet what I consider a big bat requirements. We are running out of options and have already traded away a few younger players and prospects to get Gray, Contreras and Oviedo. We are nearing a point where we'll be cornering ourselves and coming out short-handed, again. I'm not sure what the best plan is. If we overpay, the guy usually sucks and we bitch about wasting money on the wrong guy. If we don't outbid anybody, we bitch about being cheap and broken promises.

I'm just saying it seems to matter to JH, not what we think should matter.

It worked for the Dodgers taking many players from the loser Sox team.

It's not my theory: it's yours.

I'd apply the same type of offer to a 5 year deal with a 6th year option, of go higher on the 4 year deal. To me, $130M/4 is already too much. If rather we sign Suarez to $70M/3 and make a trade for a SP#2, which would keep us far below the top tax line. Apply the theory to this offer I would not make: $128M/4 with a $24M option for year 5 and an $8M buyout. That's $34M x 4 or $30M x 5. If the Sox are offering 5 years, and he's says no, then try adding a 6th year option year. The plus, is we can say no. He'd be essentially be getting more for the shorter years, but we'd have a way to save some money by saying no.

I would not mind going through this again in 3 years- after having Breggie for 3 more years. That's the point: getting him to sign. I'm not for optouts, either, but if it got him to sign, I'd do that, too. We could really use Breggie in 2026.